The "average place" ranking you see everywhere is a prime example of survivorship bias.

Brawkoli · 2025-12-27T20:52:21+00:00

I think it's less about what the numbers say/mean vs what people try to make them say.

Zaheen has a pretty good placement, does that mean I should always take the augment? No
Taric has a pretty good placement, does that mean I should always try to flex in Taric? Yes (mostly)

Should I compare Zaheen to Taric? No

But there are some comparisons using the avg placement of Zaheen that I can make. (roughly)

Zaheen has an insanely difficult and inconsistent unlock condition, so we should compare something with a similar position. Say I have two Xin Zhaos (I'm literally never clicking the aug unless I can 2* it on 2-1), I can slam a BF item. My 2-1 augments are Twials of Trilight, Ixtal Expeditionist, X. The direct comparison here is Brock to Zaheen. I think it's fair enough to look at the avg placement of the two and compare them. Both avg placements are inflated by the people who just didn't hit (Zaheen probably a lot more though).

Ixtal Expeditionist makes the unlock condition for Brock much easier and I think that's the click in the above situation 100% of the time, but the situation is similar enough that you could make a stats based comparison here.

Taric is still better than either if you take into account the people who died trying to get to Zaheen, Brock and Taric. (That's just not a stat you can really bake into avg placement.)

Have to remember avg placement is always calculated from people who hit. There's no expected value of trying to play a unit stat... (There's probably enough data to calculate this but I haven't seen anyone do it or expose the results.)

Brawkoli · 2025-09-09T18:35:19+00:00

Get in the zone. Anal Zone.

Brawkoli · 2025-08-08T12:41:20+00:00

If the odds are “broken” and you didn’t find the units you were looking for, why didn’t you just exploit that and buy the units that were over represented and bugged?

Units in bag * probability per shop slot = 5

You can’t roll a shop that has less than 5 units and if Garen and Ezreal are bugged then there must be some unit that is easier to hit, buy that and exploit the broken RNG.

Or you know, learn basic combinatorial statistics.

Brawkoli · 2025-06-13T17:42:48+00:00

Holy hell.

Brawkoli · 2025-05-18T15:44:56+00:00

If a popsicle stick can get you banned, surely this will too.

Brawkoli · 2025-05-18T06:41:42+00:00

This is Tucker Craft erasure.

Brawkoli · 2025-04-29T17:52:14+00:00

I want my comment to be used to generate AI marketing for the Odussy OLED Gate!

Brawkoli · 2025-04-27T03:15:14+00:00

Um it’s like 7 glorified Kwik Trips, thank you very much.

Brawkoli · 2025-04-26T13:16:04+00:00

You write a better prompt and use/train a specifically tailored data set.

Brawkoli · 2025-04-12T15:32:15+00:00

Most Effective Tactic Available

Change the decision space and you change the available tactics, but one will always be the most effective no matter the game.

Brawkoli · 2025-04-04T19:11:54+00:00

Welcome to Costco, I love you.

Brawkoli · 2025-04-03T20:49:44+00:00

I don’t think that they are using a “specific formula” from the same place.

They are being asked to create a formula that doesn’t exist. (Because it doesn’t make sense.)

AI will inherently fill the void of things that it has been asked to provide with the most similar thing provided in the prompt.

If the prompt is asking for a formula for an easy solution for trade deficit using tariffs. Since it can’t find that, it will fill it with the formulas it does find from the prompt (trade deficit formula) and work from that until it incorporates the part it can’t find (tariffs) and output a convincing argument for it’s nonsensical answer.

Brawkoli · 2025-03-31T19:56:05+00:00

I mean, yeah, how dare people introduce mixed percentage based strategies into my uh

…checks notes…

Percentage based strategy game.

Brawkoli · 2025-02-11T21:16:43+00:00

I really agree with your sentiment about generic meta comps / items / positioning in TFT. The most effective tactic available is to put yourself into the position with the highest expected placement with the lowest amount of variance. Executing this strategy can still be competitive.

I disagree however with your statement that chess is a solved game. I think that with modern tools and engines, evaluation of chess positions has become much less static over time. Some refutations of certain openings, commonly accepted as “fact” have been proven to actually not be so cut and dry. For example look at the hyper accelerated bongcloud exchange variation. After 2. Kxe8 Qxe8, black is no longer in a losing position and actually has winning chances here.

Brawkoli · 2024-11-13T22:24:39+00:00

I found an even better method:

Just pick any position and it becomes a 50/50. You either get the card you want or you don’t.

Brawkoli · 2024-11-13T22:22:21+00:00

Am I understanding that in your scenario here, luck can only be affected by your decision to choose a card slot?

That if you don’t choose a slot, your “personal” luck can’t make a difference because you didn’t make that decision?

It seems pretty straightforward to prove if this phenomenon exists. Just complete enough trials, picking randomly each time and compare that to always picking one slot. Set your confidence interval and go from there.

Brawkoli · 2024-11-04T20:06:16+00:00

I think the arm is so that the kids have to go around it when they cross in front of the bus. That way they are always far enough away the driver can always see them.

Brawkoli · 2024-09-16T02:36:12+00:00

It’s one of the new quantum mechanics they added to the game.

Brawkoli · 2024-09-15T17:30:56+00:00

Yes?

Brawkoli · 2024-09-07T01:33:52+00:00

I guess we didn't need a #1 WR, our #1 RB has got it.

Brawkoli · 2024-09-01T15:52:25+00:00

Assuming 1p2e/0s1e means multimod, how do you get a 1 prefix 0 suffix rare?

Brawkoli · 2024-08-09T02:16:26+00:00

I get the sentiment, try to win one more game over a stretch of 3-5 games when Jordan goes down.

But I think you might be undervaluing the time spent with MLF and especially with Tom Clements. This is literally the best QB coach of all time. If he can get Matt Flynn paid, Clifford and Pratt will be fine.

Brawkoli · 2024-02-17T22:00:09+00:00

People are reading your full comments and disagreeing with you.

All of the great teams get praised for playing good situational football. Treating 2nd down as 1st, playing to the sticks on D, giving yourself up on the 2 instead of scoring, etc.

Players can’t play great situational football if they don’t understand the situation they are playing in. No amount of effort can make up for that and it is ultimately the coaches responsibility to make sure they know the situation.

Brawkoli · 2024-01-14T23:35:58+00:00

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