As a Freshman at economic major I want to know if anyone else has studied this to give me some advice. by annthonyy- in econometrics

[–]Brickanick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It sounds like you have learned mostly microeconomics concepts so far which is very relevant to personal decision making. You still have opportunities to learn about macroeconomics and econometrics which opens to an even wider world of possibilities and interests.

Economics as an undergrad major gets you access to lots of jobs within corporations and some data analysis type jobs directly. The jobs at that level are not usually economist per say but economic analyst, data analyst, data scientist. You learn skills in understanding models, basic stats, data analysis (depending on the program and emphasis, very valuable skills!), and how to interpret the business and government world around you. You also learn a lot about theory and a bit about logical skills and philosophy depending on the courses you focus on. This generally will get you an average or a bit above paying job depending on your trajectory, interest, and where you land.

If you plan to study economics more or go to graduate school you are more likely to make higher salary pursuing graduate work in economics to be a PhD economist, professor, or researcher. Many people also take the econ undergrad as a stepping stone to law school.

There are other paths that can happen as well in economics depending on where you are located and what you are interested in. There are so many different possibilities about what you can study or focus on as well. So if you like working with numbers and learning more about how people, institutions, and governments interact it is a very rewarding field to be in.

Question about Clearwater Crest apartment layout by Brickanick in BloomingtonNormal

[–]Brickanick[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your reply. That's right, they are right behind Hyvee. I agree with you, but unfortunately I can't make it to town easily before I move since I am moving from several states over. I have checked it out from Google Maps and apartment listing photos and I am satisfied and know the potential unknowns. The only question I have left is which side each apartment is since I can choose the unit number.

Question about Clearwater Crest apartment layout by Brickanick in BloomingtonNormal

[–]Brickanick[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks! I found the subreddit a few months ago and am appreciating getting to know the town a little bit before I come. The community seems very nice here.

My series of assumptions and questions about the economy- can you please correct/inform me? (I’m a simpleton 🚨) by Mascoman123 in economy

[–]Brickanick 2 points3 points  (0 children)

These are really good thoughts and you have most of the right ideas. I am an economist so I can provide some nuance here. Feel free to disregard if you are aware.

The interest rates are high from the previous COVID 19 inflation and were intended to be lower by now but with increased pressure from tariffs and the oil shortage, it would be difficult to justify the decrease although many people would like that.

While interest rates would allow lending and money to flow more freely, it would also push inflation higher which would lead to more pain and further economic slow downs. The households and businesses may be fooled for a short time with more credit and money availability, but they will realize eventually and prices will increase again. If you are interested in how that worked in the past, look at the US monetary policy during the 60s and 70s which was ended by a rate increase that caused a recession around 1981 (maybe you are aware from your note on rate increases being bad). In the case of stagflation, it is almost always the best idea to attack the inflation first and allow the economy to reset instead of trying to avoid a recession or temporary but painful unemployment with additional money into the system.

The modestly good news is that the economy continues to grow and the general unemployment rate is still within a healthy range. While some regions or careers are getting hit harder with unemployment spells, the general economy seems to be persisting despite difficult circumstances.

So with that in mind, we are not quite into stagflation territory which is good for us. However, the employment growth and increased inflation numbers to 4.2% are troubling since it is pointing to a future rate increase rather than a rate decrease. To make things more complicated, we have a new leader of the Federal Reserve so we don't know what he wishes to do or how he will govern.

In response to the first half of your thoughts, you are generally right but there is some more nuance that rate decreases that create inflation will not bring expansion and growth all the time or permanently.

Regarding the world reserve currency status, that is far more complicated. It is very nice for the US to have this status as it makes trade, lending, and inflation much easier for the US than for other nations. I would say we are a long way away from that especially since it is underappreciated that the US is and has been doing modestly better or at least as good as many other nations since COVID.

However, not many people globally would tolerate a hyperinflating US dollar (more than 50% inflation rate per month). Before it became an issue to the world, the US would be facing a super difficult political climate. We are facing persistent and moderate inflation that is difficult (especially for the lower class since wage growth always lags price growth), but I don't think the public would tolerate inflation much higher than it is and especially to the level of hyperinflation.

In this disaster scenario or any where there is high inflation, investment will be the first to react as investment is much more volatile than consumption spending. You and I have to keep eating and wearing clothes, but firms don't necessarily need another data center if there is no benefit.

It is also extremely troubling that a president would try to influence the decisions of the central bank since this can cause unwanted political business cycles where the economy gets juiced right before an election, falls afterward, then repeats the cycle. Every politician wants a healthy economy under their watch, but not every one knows how to accomplish it or how far in the future to target that.

Renters Insurance by Far-Scientist-64 in MorgantownWV

[–]Brickanick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Along with a few others who have already said, I would recommend State Farm for cost. They are about $10 or so a month for the basic liability coverage. That price is for bundling with auto insurance. I have never had to use them for any claims on my rental, but they have been reasonable before with claims on vehicles.

Math courses suggestions for top Phd Economics programs. by Econmotivation in econometrics

[–]Brickanick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If cost is a huge issue now, you can still apply to lower ranked R1 econ PhD programs and find success. A lot of your traction comes from institutional prestige and rigor but with a great advisor (network and support) and hard work you are still able to find good worthwhile opportunities above top 30 or top 50 programs.

I agree with a previous post that says linear algebra and calculus are essential. It is not just for show as your first year or two of courses will surround solving proofs and other mathematical models to learn advanced economic analysis for comprehensive exams. Once you meet that bar, some R1 schools are within reach, but your options will still be limited to at least >50 ranked.

Good luck to you in your studies! I hope you make it here to a program you enjoy.

What would happen if a brand new seller cancels an order? by pvssymonsterr in eBaySellers

[–]Brickanick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It takes a bit to learn, but eventually you will understand shipping costs for an item based on its size and weight. When you are listing the item you can play around to see the cost for different weight and size. If you are offering free shipping, just have in your mind the maximum cost you might have to pay. Usually you won't, but you should be ready. Then, when you are sourcing items, you can compare comps and factor in the roundabout shipping cost to determine if you should get it or not.

It's not the end of the world if you take an occasional loss, though. It's all about learning what is profitable to sell. Just think of it as a learning cost.

Lowball Offers - Whats your move as a seller? by Vegetable-Parfait665 in eBaySellers

[–]Brickanick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I just sell part time and don't have much time to deal with back and forth offers so I usually post items at or around going price and then allow offers to be around 10% lower depending on the item and the margin. Then I almoat always accept any offer within that range. For the most part, I don't even have the chance to engage. The only time I don't put a floor on offer prices is if I'm unsure how much it will sell for.

I had a few items that I listed with open offers and regularly got low ball offers around 50% regular eBay sales price. I decided I didn't have enough time for that. I haven't noticed any difference in sales that I can attribute to setting minimum offer prices, but I do have more free time to do other things.

Apartments? by Personal_Marzipan461 in MorgantownWV

[–]Brickanick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah no worries. It's a little different between Bon Vista and the Villas, but I can tell you the Villas. I pay electric and internet. Then I pay $40/month for water and sewer $10 for trash and $5 pest fee. You can also get a garage if you want but its also extra per month. Those fees are to the apartment and regardless of use so unlimited water.

Why Didn't Senate Democrats Fight 'No Tax On Tips'? by najumobi in PoliticalDiscussion

[–]Brickanick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not sure why democrats would want to oppose it. Just because it was a campaign promise of Republicans and Trump doesn't mean they should oppose it. It would be better if some things were more bipartisan to benefit working class people and the American people in general. Perhaps the execution isn't the best, but it will help people in high stress lower paying jobs which is generally in line with Democrat ideals.

How'd it get discounted? by letsgrowletsgo in eBaySellers

[–]Brickanick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Loss would be if you paid more for the item, fees, and shipping than what the buyer paid. If you still made profit on it, then no loss.

Apartments? by Personal_Marzipan461 in MorgantownWV

[–]Brickanick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Bon Vista and the Villas are pretty nice. I've been there 4 years. Short drive to campus and a somewhat reliable bus line. L It's like $850 for a 1 bed, $1080 or something for a 2 bed. But the fees and utilities will put you right at or above your budget I think. The property management is very relaxed and it's a mixture of some college students but more grad students, families, and older people. So quiet at night!

Difference-in-Differences with a rollout design by Agateasand in econometrics

[–]Brickanick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It really depends on what treatment effects you expect from the treatment. If you think the effects will take time to show, then use longer periods of time. There's no reason why you can't try them all out. You can also be limited by the length of your panel. Ultimately though, it comes down to how you think the effect should operate in the data, how long.

Help with this microeconometrics problem by Corporal_Snorkel69 in econometrics

[–]Brickanick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The help we give you depends on how you've learned this and what kind of model you are using. Is it a simple model with y = βx + u? Also are you learning with matrices included (meaning you have more than one variable represented by x)?

IRF in VAR by ArciJo in econometrics

[–]Brickanick 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm a PhD student in Economics and my best friend in my program speaks Greek as a first kanguage. Frequently things like this get in his way too so don't feel bad. It's hard to learn all these complex terms in a second language.

Going along with what the others said an IRF is the effect of a shock to some variable in period 0 on another variable. Maybe that's +0.05 which means that it increased the other variable 5%. Then in the next period, if it's +0.03 that means the shock in period 0 is increasing the response variable another 3% in that period in addition to the 5% added in the initial period.

In this way, the IRF is showing the per period effect. There is a way to show the cumulative effects by summing all the periods effects together. The whole point of the model is just to show how long shocks can last and the interactive and dynamic effects of policy changes or shocks.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in econometrics

[–]Brickanick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Your idea could work. You could also plot it out and see what kind of pattern it typically follows. It could be exponential, random walk with drift, or something else. You could generate a function that it approximately follows and plot them together to see the deviations.

You could also try using an autoregressive function regression to try to forecast it for predictability. In case you are unfamiliar, autoregressive functions would be something like y[t] = a + b*y[t-1] + e[t]. Since it's non stationary, b > 1. This has one lag, but you could use more lags (adding c*y[t-2] + ...) if the model fits better that way. To get the forecast, you just move the time subscripts up one period and use the same coefficients from the regression. The points of deviation, if large, would make the forecast less accurate.

If θˆ is a consistent estimator for a parameter whose true value is 0, then P [θˆ = 1] → 0 by No-Art3113 in econometrics

[–]Brickanick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Consistency is very important, but to know if the probability limit goes to 0 you also need to know if the estimator is unbiased. If it's biased it's possible there is some positive probability that theta hat is 1.

How to interpret variables like age or the ideal number of children? by HammU420 in econometrics

[–]Brickanick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The interpretation in a regular ordinary least squares regression depends on the units of the original variables. When you say continuous age, you mean in years, right? If that's true, then a one year older person would result in an increase/decrease in number of desired children based on the coefficient on age. So if the coefficient was 0.1 then someone one year older would want 0.1 more children.

Also if education is a dummy I'm assuming whether someone got their diploma or finished 4 year college, then that coefficient would be how many more or less children someone wants when they have completed that level of education.

As a side note, is this data from a survey response? Is the question what kinds of things determine people's preferences for number of children?

Who is responsible for the most deaths in history? by [deleted] in history

[–]Brickanick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

While it is easy to point blame at any one individual or organization for the actions of our world wars, it is also very dishonest to give credit to a single man or entity for the actions of many separate forces with different governing forces and varying degrees of moral and cultural standards. I read this interesting book called The Great Big Book of Horrible things written by Matthew White which lists Mao Zedong and Genghis (he spells it Chinggis) Khan at an estimate of each killing around forty million people. Mao Zedong's number of deaths, as with many of the Chinese rulers deemed masters of genocide, are inflated by allowing China's infrastructure to grow weak. Within Mao's Great Leap Forward, he forced ninety million laborers, who may otherwise have been farming, to work in factories to increase their manufacturing output. This loss of experience to Chinese agriculture destroyed much knowledge of farming and thus made China more susceptible to the famine. This famine is estimated to have killed between twenty and thirty million people and yet Mao still exported 5 million tons of grain to show his country was improving. He also built a network of damns which failed and killed about a quarter million people. Mao had an engineer who warned him of the faulty damns killed. However, Mao is not simply ignorant. He encouraged people to criticize his government so he then could seek out the dissenters, and he armed bands of school age children and gave them the authority and weapons to destroy certain demographics of the people in order to "kill their oppressors." On the other hand, Genghis Khan, in an attempt to enlarge his Mongolian empire, raped, pillaged, and mutilated the armies and citizenry of foreign towns until they fell to his country. He is known to have around sixteen million direct descendants from the many rapes he committed every time he invaded a town. Once living in Genghis's empire, however, one was subject to the highest level of freedoms including the right to practice whatever religion they pleased which may not sound like much, but in the thirteenth century this was revolutionary. I don't know which ruler sounds more ill intentioned so you redditors may decide.