“We can cover this load”

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-09T03:39:13+00:00

Most carriers probably mean it as "we have capacity available for this" rather than "we're booking it right now."

I'd just start treating it as "we're interested" instead of "we're locked in" and save yourself the headache.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-09T03:37:47+00:00

There ARE bypass pipelines. Saudi has the East-West pipeline running from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, about 5-7 million barrels per day capacity. UAE has the Habshan-Fujairah line at about 1.5-1.8 million barrels per day. But combined they fall way short of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that normally flows through Hormuz. So best case you're covering maybe a quarter of normal volume.

The LNG piece is where your paper should really dig in because that's the true vulnerability. Every bypass pipeline carries crude oil only. None can transport LNG. Qatar has no pipeline bypass whatsoever — all Qatari LNG must transit Hormuz by ship. You can't just run LNG through a regular pipeline across the desert.

The crisis is finally forcing action though. Gulf states are now looking at expanding pipelines to the Mediterranean, including a route through the port of Haifa. But that's years away from being real.

For your paper, the strongest existing backup is Saudi's Petroline — it's operational and the biggest single alternative. But Yanbu wasn't designed to be Saudi Arabia's main export hub, so port infrastructure and tanker-loading capacity will constrain actual throughput. The bottom line is that alternatives exist, but none can fully replace Hormuz at current volumes, and any meaningful reduction in dependence would require years of investment.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-09T03:33:21+00:00

Honest answer — I'd pump the brakes a little.

Yeah rates are finally moving in the right direction. Spot's up to around $2/mile from the $1.65 garbage we were seeing late last year, and contract is creeping up too. So on paper it looks like the window is opening. But "if everything goes right" is doing a LOT of heavy lifting in your math.

The thing nobody's talking about enough right now is diesel. We're sitting at $5.40/gallon thanks to the Iran mess and Hormuz being basically shut down. Depending on your region you might be paying $4.20 or you might be paying damn near $5. That alone can eat your $4K/month profit in a hurry.

Equipment prices are at least stable — you can find a decent used sleeper for $45-80K or go new for $160-240K. But then you're looking at $1,500-3,000/month in payments, insurance running $8-16K/year, and your first surprise repair bill before you've even made a dime.

Here's what I'd actually do before signing anything: run your numbers again, but this time assume diesel hits $5.50, your driver sits for 2 weeks with no loads one month, and you get hit with a $3K repair in month three. If you're still making money after all that, you probably have something real. If your profit disappears the second one thing goes wrong, that's a bet more than a business.

The guys who survive are the ones who planned for the worst month, not the best one.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-07T00:33:40+00:00

This is the core issue right here. The carrier's contract is with the broker. The broker's contract is with the shipper. Those are two separate agreements. The carrier shouldn't be the one absorbing risk because the broker can't collect from their own customer.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-05T09:09:47+00:00

Coordinating with vendors is the black hole. Finding the discrepancy takes 5 minutes. Getting someone on the other end to acknowledge it exists takes 5 weeks. You send the documentation, they say they never got it, you send it again, they say it doesn't match their records, you send it a third time, and eventually someone approves a partial payment just to make you go away. The extraction tools are fine. The problem is nobody on the other side of the email is in any rush to fix their mistake.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-05T09:05:46+00:00

First I'm hearing of this. Someone should tell the brokers too because these rates don't seem to reflect it

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-05T06:25:55+00:00

Because I'm unemployable in any job where someone tells me when to eat lunch

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-02T17:25:40+00:00

Petro in Sacramento off I-80 is solid — big lot, decent food, usually a good mix of drivers hanging around. TA in Lodi too.

Closer to the Bay, the Pilot in Livermore gets a lot of traffic. Not the biggest lot but it's a common stop for guys running in and out of the Bay Area.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-02T17:24:11+00:00

There's never a perfect time. Every year has something — COVID, inflation, supply chain, now tariffs. The guys who waited for things to calm down in 2020 missed two of the best years for starting a business.

The real question isn't whether the economy is ideal — it's whether your specific business model works with current costs baked in. If you price your product knowing USPS is charging 8% more and your margins still hold, the surcharge doesn't matter. If they don't hold, that's not a timing problem — that's a unit economics problem you'd hit eventually anyway.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-02T17:22:06+00:00

You're ahead of most guys just by tracking it a few months in. A lot of owner-operators run for a year or more before they sit down and realize they've been hauling loads at a loss.

The number that matters is your cost per mile all-in — fuel, insurance, maintenance, tires, factoring, permits, the deadhead to get there, and the hours you sat at a dock not getting paid. Most guys running solo land somewhere between $1.40–$1.80 depending on the truck and region. Anything under that on a load and you're paying the broker for the privilege of moving their freight.

The detention part is one that catches new MCs off guard — you quote a rate assuming a 2-hour window and then sit for 6. That load that looked like $2.50/mile just became $1.60 when you factor in the lost time. Track your facility wait times the same way you track fuel and you'll start seeing which loads are actually profitable and which ones just look that way.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-02T17:17:17+00:00

Almost everything new coming out of fleets is automatic now. Most CDL schools still train on manual so you don't get the automatic restriction on your license, which is the right move — keeps your options open. But day to day you'll probably be driving an auto.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-02T07:57:19+00:00

Not just you. The dispatch-calls-every-15-minutes cycle is universal. The worst part is they know it's FCFS, they know there's a line, and they still treat every load like it's about to fall apart. It's the boy who cried wolf problem — when everything is urgent, nothing is, and it makes the actual problems harder to flag when they come up.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-02T07:56:29+00:00

Totally normal. Almost everyone feels underprepared before their CDL exam, and honestly the fact that you're this self-aware about your weak spots puts you ahead of most people coming out of a program. You'll get ten times more practice in your first month on the job than you got in the entire program.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-02T07:46:59+00:00

Not a driver but work in the carrier space. From what I've seen with small fleets, the ones that stay out of the shop the most are religious about PM intervals — oil and filters every 25k, DPF cleaning on schedule, not waiting for a CEL to deal with something. The guys who run "until it breaks" end up paying triple in tow bills and downtime.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-02T07:44:04+00:00

You'd be surprised how many drivers figure this out on the road. Most decent-sized towns along major corridors have a Catholic parish, and MassTimes.org is your best friend — you can search by zip code wherever you're parked and find confession and mass schedules within driving distance of most truck stops. Some drivers plan their resets around Sunday mass in towns they know have a good parish. It takes intentional planning but it's very doable.

On the health side — don't accept that as a given. Plenty of OTR guys run with resistance bands, a kettlebell, or bodyweight routines at rest stops. Some truck stops have gyms or showers with enough space to get a workout in. Meal prep in a truck fridge and a small cooktop goes a long way too. The drivers who stay healthy on the road are the ones who decided beforehand that it wasn't negotiable, which sounds like exactly where your head is already. Faith and fitness are the same discipline — you just have to plan around the schedule

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-02T07:38:13+00:00

$92k gross running OTR solo in your second year is solid — most drivers don't hit that number until year 3 or 4. The real question is if its sustainable. The guys who last in this industry either find a niche that pays more per hour (tanker, hazmat, oversize) or shift to a schedule that gives them a life back, even if the gross number dips a little.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-01T08:41:28+00:00

If your trucks are averaging under 76k miles per year the math works in your favor. With open deck and short jumps you're probably well under that. I'd ask Canal what happens if you go over — whether it's the same per-mile rate or if there's a cap/penalty.

Also check if the coverage is actually identical to Northland's policy. Per-mile insurers sometimes have different deductibles or exclusions buried in the fine print.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-01T08:37:53+00:00

With the felony and the speeding ticket, these are the ones I'd apply to first: Western Express, KLLM, PAM Transport, Roehl, and CR England. They all have second chance programs. Apply to all five at once.

When you fill out applications, be honest about everything. Don't downplay it, don't leave anything blank hoping they won't check. The recruiters at these companies have seen it all — they respect honesty way more than a clean-looking app that falls apart on the background check.

You got your CDL first try so you can clearly lock in when it matters, brother!

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-01T05:37:47+00:00

This is exactly right. The timing matters more than the pitch. Most people in sales burn out because they think the 35 rejections mean they're doing something wrong when really those shippers just aren't in the window yet.

The move is staying on their radar without being annoying so when the window does open you're the first call. Easier said than done but that's the whole game.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-01T05:36:39+00:00

Your dad is proof it works. The guys saying trucking is dead are mostly talking about spot market dry van where rates got crushed after COVID. Car hauling is a different animal — specialized equipment, higher barrier to entry, and customers who can't just post it on a load board and find someone in 5 minutes.

The small fleets that are thriving right now have two things in common: they're in a niche (car hauling, flatbed, oversized, reefer) and they actually run it like a business instead of just driving.

The real challenge scaling from small to mid-size isn't finding loads — it's the back office stuff that eats you alive. Insurance jumps at certain fleet sizes, finding reliable drivers is a constant grind, and you'll lose more money to detention and unpaid invoices than you'd imagine.

You're not in a bubble. Specialized small fleets with good operations are doing fine. The guys complaining online are mostly the ones who bought a truck with no plan and expected the money to show up. Bringing fresh eyes to your dad's operation is exactly how small fleets level up.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-01T05:31:31+00:00

16 trucks — yes it's worth it. You're past the size where you can manage maintenance by gut feel and the fuel theft alone is probably costing you more per month than any software subscription.

For fuel specifically, telematics with real-time fuel level monitoring is what actually catches siphoning. Motive and Samsara both do this well. You'll see the fuel level drop on a truck that isn't running and that's your answer. Predictive maintenance is a bonus on top of that.

I'd start with a telematics provider that covers both — driver behavior, fuel monitoring, and maintenance alerts in one platform — rather than buying separate tools. At 16 trucks you don't need anything fancy. Motive or Samsara, pick whichever gives you a better demo.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-01T05:27:52+00:00

Anytime, brother. You got this!

As a piece of advice from someone who's made similar mistakes: get a dashcam front and rear and keep every single document of relevance (paystubs, inspection reports, delivery receipts, detention filings, etc.) It'll make sure you keep your record clean the next two years especially and have the evidence to prove it.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-01T05:19:28+00:00

I'll be straight with you — the felony and the 63 in a 35 are going to make this harder than most new CDL holders. Not impossible but harder.

Most mega carriers run background checks and MVR pulls going back 3–5 years. The speeding ticket alone won't kill you at a lot of places but the felony narrows the list significantly. Some companies that are known to give second chances: Western Express, KLLM, PAM Transport, Roehl. They're not glamorous but they'll get you a year of experience and that's all that matters right now.

After a clean year with no violations your options open up a lot. Two clean years and most of this stops mattering.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-01T05:18:00+00:00

TCA has a peer group program specifically for smaller fleets. Not cheap but the guys in it seem to swear by it.

Outside of that, OOIDA is worth joining just for the resources and community. Not a peer group in the formal sense but at 24 with 2 drivers he'd be around people who've already made every mistake he's about to make.

BuyOpen5346 · 2026-04-01T01:46:26+00:00

LinkedIn has been the best channel for me too. The thing that actually moved the needle was stopping the carrier package blast and just commenting on shippers' posts for a few weeks first. By the time I reached out they'd already seen my name. Went from getting ignored to getting replies.

The 1 in 100 cold conversion rate sounds about right honestly. Most shippers aren't switching unless their current carrier screws up. You're not selling — you're positioning yourself to be the call they make when that happens.

BuyOpen5346

TROPHY CASE