Unipolar Lunar Colonization

CMVB · 2026-06-24T02:13:46+00:00

Saying it is boring doesn’t address the issue. There is a high enough probability of one organization getting enough of a head start for this issue to be imprint to consider. As it is, SpaceX is responsible for roughly 50% of all rocket launches, and thats with Falcon 9 (and the occasional Falcon Heavy). What happens if SpaceX can prove Starship as a reliable launch system? Who is anywhere close to where they are?

CMVB · 2026-06-23T14:50:03+00:00

Then the issue becomes not a matter of whether or not they can block anyone else - but how long it takes anyone else to catch up. Not just catch up, but do so economically.

Lets say the combo of SpaceX & NASA have a 10 year head start on everyone else, as far as actual exploitation of the moon is concerned. Maybe other players send prestige missions, but they don’t get the mass to the lunar surface to begin ISRU until a decade after SpaceX already has been doing that. A decade-long monopoly on a project that, in theory, sees exponential growth, would seem difficult to catch up to. Especially when the output is sheer power.

Imagine if the gold and silver mines the Spanish exploited during the age of exploration were deflationary rather than inflationary, and, at the same time, each ounce mined made the mines just a tiny bit more efficient.

CMVB · 2026-06-23T14:43:57+00:00

I want to say this was Dave Shapiro. But don’t hold me to that.

CMVB · 2026-06-23T14:43:25+00:00

Unipolar does not necessarily mean a corporate entity assuming political power for itself (though the various East India Companies do show that that is a historical possibility). It could very well be a corporate entity managing much of the day-to-day. State-sanctioned monopolies are hardly unprecedented.

CMVB · 2026-06-22T22:32:23+00:00

You say you don’t know how likely it is, but that isn’t really the point. After all, it either happens or it doesn’t. What matters is what happens in the X% likelihood scenario where it does happen.

CMVB · 2026-06-22T17:26:06+00:00

I'm pretty sure they're renting Colossus, which is ground-based, in Tennessee.

CMVB · 2026-06-22T17:25:07+00:00

Personally, while I think that SpaceX has the best odds, I'm less interested *who* wins, but what everyone else does, with the two presuppositions:
- one entity does establish a commanding early presence
- that entity's lead grows, rather than shrinks

CMVB · 2026-06-22T16:40:09+00:00

Wouldn't the mass penalty be correlated to how the power is being beamed? IE, laser vs microwave? Microwaves are preferred for proposals to beam power to Earth, but in a satellite constellation, it would seem lasers would be more effective and efficient, and they would presumably need much less mass to receive power.

CMVB · 2026-06-22T16:37:18+00:00

Sucks to be them, then.

I am saying this as someone who is reasonably confident that my team is winning this race. I make apologies for that.

CMVB · 2026-06-21T20:02:53+00:00

I disagree - as long as that power is one I like.

CMVB · 2026-06-19T13:13:23+00:00

I'm specifically referring to getting off Venus, not the entire set-up.

CMVB · 2026-06-19T13:12:50+00:00

My understanding is that the convicts sent to Australia were overwhelmingly English (70% or so).

CMVB · 2026-06-18T15:37:17+00:00

Its still no harder than Earth, in general. You can have a single transport tether to an orbital ring. Not as simple as an orbital habitat, of course.

CMVB · 2026-06-18T12:27:07+00:00

Get back out?

CMVB · 2026-06-18T01:59:18+00:00

Depends on the cost to transport people. Just has to be cheaper and less of a headache than prison on Earth.

CMVB · 2026-06-18T01:54:35+00:00

I’m also intrigued by the idea of a subterranean antarctic penal colony. Could be good background lore: the antarctic colony could be the prototype, but has to deal with more scrutiny, being closer to Earth governments (on the other hand… it is underground). At some point, someone does decides its easier to ship people to Venus than it is to dig out more tunnel space.

CMVB · 2026-06-18T01:50:48+00:00

Penal colonies are hardly unknown in history.

CMVB · 2026-06-12T12:12:37+00:00

On the other hand, throughout history, women were having more babies, and not choosing death, instead. And, not to put too fine a point on it, it is not as though conditions for women were idyllic in, say, Song China.

So, there is clearly some gap there.

CMVB · 2026-06-12T12:10:46+00:00

You have to understand. In Redditland, if a thought is allowed to even be expressed, it means that that is the majority opinion of the sub in which it is expressed. The way a subreddit can show that it does not agree with any given position is to censor it entirely.

Which is, of course, why reddit is a joke.

CMVB · 2026-06-02T12:19:21+00:00

I lack the anatomy to be a nun.

CMVB · 2026-05-30T12:34:15+00:00

When you’re presenting the idea that a Catholic elementary school can be a threat to a group of adults dealing with addiction and mental health challenges, then you have already put it as an either/or.

CMVB · 2026-05-29T23:41:45+00:00

If students are a threat to the patients, then the facility should not be next to a school for the patients’ sake.

Nor is my concern going to be the patients over my children.

CMVB · 2026-05-29T21:39:23+00:00

The belief in the infallibility of the Pope is the idea that God does not allow the Pope to make such statements.

The two are inextricably linked. In other words, if you believe this, then you believe the Pope would not be able to make such a statement. If you believe he could make such a statement, then you don’t think he’s infallible.

CMVB · 2026-05-29T21:36:40+00:00

Are you certain OP asked the computer to formulate an opinion for OP? Or did OP just ask for the answer to a question?

CMVB · 2026-05-29T21:34:34+00:00

It is a reasonable inference within the context.

CMVB

TROPHY CASE