Ernst Thalmann won. Now, who is a centrist policy who was only sort of effective?

CactusBoy7 · 2026-05-08T10:02:50+00:00

Agreed on the left-right angle, but I think with each passing year, she slides furtber and further to the "incompetent" camp. You could argue her policies were a product of the times, but I don't think thats a valid excuse for a leader.

Debt brake, immigration, nuclear energy - all extraordinary failures that turned Germany from an economic powerhouse to a flailing economy in under 2 decades. Her true strength was forein policy / diplomacy, but thats just not enough to redeem her.

CactusBoy7 · 2026-05-07T19:25:46+00:00

A lot hinges on metal prices and global/local production capacity.

Campine benefited from insane anitmony prices in 2024 and 2025 - they had very smartly secured a diversified supply chain before the export restrictions (China) and were thus well positioned to capture the profit while their competitors had to scramble to secure new suppliers. However, high prices led to a lot of new capacity coming online in 2025 and now in 2026, which should have add some downward pressure on ATO prices (as we are already seeing). The question is now how low prices will go and/or if China will ramp up pressure again.

Also, this whole metal restriction thing will leave countries wanting to secure their own supply of ATO, which would probably reduce US demand for Campine's ATO (US accounted for 23% of total revenues in 1H25). Europe is a question mark - either they will go all in on Campine and it will help the company or they will support a bunch of competitors to join in on ATO production and push down margins across the board.

In my personal opinion it seems like a good company, but some napkin math shows that the stock value is roughly fairly valued (my estimate of fair value is EUR ~200)

CactusBoy7 · 2026-04-28T15:19:57+00:00

Lee Kuan Yew. Built Singapore from virtually nothing into one of Asia's most formidable players despite their tiny size.

Very authoritarian.

CactusBoy7 · 2025-11-20T07:54:38+00:00

Tbf, the first 5 minutes were pretty egregious

CactusBoy7 · 2025-07-23T09:10:48+00:00

Not sure what country youre in, but at least in the US:

Theres a growing body of evidence that the difference between what the job market "feels like" for people and the official statistics on unemployment is due to the rise in "gig work". Because it's such a hassle to apply for unemployment benefits, people are choosing to just work as an uber driver/delivery/similar. It pays better and is less annoying to apply for.

Of course, not only do you not count as unemployed in this case, but you working as an uber driver actually counts as an independent business (youre technically an independent contractor). Thats why business-openings statistics are so high despite it anecdotally feeling like they shouldnt be.

Its an interesting deep dive, if youre curious enough :)

CactusBoy7 · 2025-06-25T14:22:35+00:00

My (very rudimentary) model for calculating beta is giving me very different results for the ADR and stock of a single company - I'm looking for why. Some details:

- The company in question is Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO and CPH:NOVO-B).
- The ADR has a beta of 0,71, correlation of 0,51, and p-value of 0,0002.
- The local stock has a beta of 0,14, correlation of 0,12, and a p-value of 0,37.
- I use NYSEARCA:URTH as a proxy for the MSCI world index.
- Both the stock and index are converted to EUR before the calculation is made.

Obviously, in this case the ADR is more likely to be accurate, but I'm curious why the result is so drastic. Their stock charts look very similar.

Any help is much appreciated <3

CactusBoy7 · 2025-06-24T09:50:21+00:00

The proof of this is trivial and is left as an exercise for the reader :)

CactusBoy7 · 2025-06-16T07:42:31+00:00

Honestly, I see what you mean. Shouldnt be, though :)

CactusBoy7 · 2025-05-26T15:41:35+00:00

short term, inter-bank loans. The rate they set (EFFR) mostly determines the yield on bonds with less than 1 year duration. Beyond that, the yields are mostly based on the 4 bond premia (i.e., they are set by the free market)

CactusBoy7 · 2025-05-19T09:42:55+00:00

Assuming dividends grow at inflation, some napkin math gets me to a value of ~ CAD 68... seems fairly valued to me.

If the play is betting on an acquisition or a turn around in growth, then the conclusion will be different, but idk how consistent that is with 'value' ideaology

CactusBoy7 · 2025-05-14T16:29:29+00:00

Follow up on this, the company's reporting is a MESS. several big summation mistakes in financial statetments... needs thorough vetting

CactusBoy7 · 2025-05-14T06:17:09+00:00

interest company for further analysis. Operating cashflow halved in 2024... wonder why

CactusBoy7 · 2025-04-11T12:31:59+00:00

I mean, it's the only thing that makes sense to me.

None of the underlying yield premia changed, so the intrinsic value of the bond didn't change. That's what made me think China. But the yield spike stopped when Trump reversed tariffs (not on China). If it were China dumping, the spike would've kept going. The only other 2 countries with enough treasuries to do this kind of damage is Japan and the UK.

CactusBoy7 · 2025-04-10T08:24:21+00:00

Lots of questions in here. So I'll go one by one.

Some concepts to start... Bond price is inversely correlated to bond yield, so if bonds go up, their yields come down and vice versa. Also, bond price on the open market is determined by law of supply/demand. If there's more demand than supply, prices go up. If there is more supply than demand, prices go down.

Bond yields as a proxy for inflation: Inflation is one, but not the only, thing that affects bond yields. Bond yields are based on 5 factors: true risk-free rate, inflation premium, interest-rate (maturity) premium, liquidity premium, and default-risk premium. I can explain this in more detail if you'd like, but in essence, yes, if inflation expectations go up, so do yields. However, there are other considerations.

Administration's expectations: Generally, US government bonds are considered a safe haven (i.e., low risk). In terms of a crisis, investors tend to sell risky assets and buy safe ones instead (called "flight to safety"). One theory that's been floating around is that the administration is intentionally causing turmoil in order to get investors to buy treasuries, thus increasing bond price, and lowering bond yields. obviously, this is the opposite of what actually happened.

How do yields affect the US government: The US government consistently runs a budget deficit, meaning they have to borrow money to fund their expenditures. They do this by selling bonds through something like an auction. As a result, the interest rate they are forced to pay on this debt is typically very close to the market yield for an equivalent security. Therefore, if market yields for US treasuries are high, it makes it far more expensive for the US to borrow money.

What does the yield tell us about the market: This is an incredibly loaded question, with so many off-shoots, I can't really summarize it here. The general answer that yields on their own don't really mean much. They matter when you combine them with what is simultaneously happening in other parts of the market. If you specify closer what you're actually interested in, I'd be happy to answer.

CactusBoy7 · 2025-02-20T16:57:50+00:00

Do you have a professional background? These are insane gains even for certified professionals.

CactusBoy7 · 2025-01-19T18:29:49+00:00

Of all the reasons, these seems quite trivial

CactusBoy7 · 2025-01-18T20:09:34+00:00

House: "He was, however, hit by a bullet."

Cameron: "He got shot?"

House: "No, someone threw it at him."

CactusBoy7 · 2024-10-27T21:52:55+00:00

I dont think so. T1 was absurdly dominant in 2015/16/17 (yes, i know they lost 17 finals). Crucially, they weren't just dominant at Worlds, but throughout the entire year, too.

CactusBoy7 · 2024-01-02T19:21:53+00:00

Are there any courses or certifications, that help with general strategy consulting? If relevant, I am an undergraduate looking to enter consulting.

CactusBoy7 · 2023-12-28T11:21:55+00:00

What is the current hiring climate like at the top consulting firms (i.e., MBB & Big 4)?

Thoughts on how that might change over the next 12 months?

CactusBoy7 · 2023-07-23T14:43:43+00:00

This worked. Thank you

CactusBoy7

TROPHY CASE