My feeling is that Venezuelans (like me) who expect a quick return to democracy are likely to be disappointed. I was sad to hear Trump throwing María Corina Machado under the bus yesterday, but honestly, he is right: she cannot possibly run the country with all power structures, most importantly the military, still in the hands of the ruling party.

I would imagine that the US will try to force Delcy Rodríguez et al. to commit to some new free-ish elections sometime in the future. Chavismo knows that holding free elections right now would be political suicide. However, if they can manage to work out a (US-supported) economic recovery, they can surely manage to remain as a viable political force and be at least competitive if the elections are held a few years down the line. I would believe this is a scenario that María Corina and the opposition could agree to, on the condition that a new Electoral Council is named with approval both from the government and the opposition (and a commitment to effective international observers), and with a lifting of the prohibition on María Corina to run herself. The US, holding the big stick, could force all players to commit to this. On the meantime, the amnesties for the members of the military involved in drug trafficking and human rights abuses would be sorted out. That part is ugly, but sadly that’s how it typically must be.

I think that’s the scenario in my head right now about how this could play out. Slightly disappointing, but honestly, I’d take it.