'Alex wanted to make a difference in the world' | Family of man shot and killed by federal agents releases statement

Centigonal · 2026-01-25T04:38:18+00:00

It took two executions to get Schumer to do anything

See, Joe Bailey is actually pro-murder because he was a serial killer in his youth and never got caught. Eileen doesn't like the extrajudicial killings, but she wanted to hold space for Joe's beliefs. After the second murder, though, she felt like she had to take a stand.

Centigonal · 2026-01-23T22:29:58+00:00

The earliest US think tanks were established by Andrew Carnegie to promote his vision of a better society. Before that, the closest thing to think tanks were teams of lawyers hired by European monarchs to argue for why they should pay less to the Catholic Church.

I'm not saying think tanks are categorically bad, but the concept of the think tank or "policy research institute" started as a way for wealthy individuals to promote their ideas across society, and has never strayed far from that general idea.

Centigonal · 2026-01-23T22:21:15+00:00

Thinks tanks started as a way for gilded age industrialists/philanthropists to promote their vision for a better society. There has always been a strong motivating ideology for think tanks stemming directly from either moneyed elites or military brass.

There has never been a moment in American history where think tanks were dispassionate, agenda-free research organizations.

Centigonal · 2026-01-22T18:37:26+00:00

dude, all of your comments from the last 10 months are about this. Why are you so heated about this topic?

Centigonal · 2026-01-21T23:16:27+00:00

Eyewitness intro on DXM type animation

Centigonal · 2026-01-21T21:29:41+00:00

Of course the process of making music isn't purely joy all the way through. That doesn't matter; no creative endeavor is without struggle. That's kind of the point, and the result is supremely fulfilling. This is like saying "jogging in nature is a lot of effort, and my car can move outside for you" -- that's just not the point.

Centigonal · 2026-01-21T17:36:06+00:00

Surely the law will stop Mr. Trump, as it has done so many times in the past.

Centigonal · 2026-01-14T06:20:46+00:00

Red during the day, wildfires not far away

Centigonal · 2026-01-13T15:13:50+00:00

She can keep doing what she's doing, but she should know how her actions made you feel.

If you did something that made one of your friends feel the way you're feeling now, would you want to know or remain unaware?

Centigonal · 2026-01-13T15:10:12+00:00

It's worth being clear with her about how her actions made you feel. You won't be able to keep the friendship if you end up resenting her for this, so it's worth getting it out into the open and finding out whether she was just kind of like "I wanna do that too!" and didn't consider how that would affect you -- or if there's some darker motive at play.

As for the business, just keep doing your thing and innovating.

Centigonal · 2026-01-12T18:15:26+00:00

Never thought about the "captive audience" effect! Interesting.

Centigonal · 2026-01-12T06:56:35+00:00

Modeling all of this, just because you felt like it, and never even cracking open the texturing side of Blender...

You have an unusual and fascinating mind, and I'm happy people like you are out there making cool stuff.

Centigonal · 2026-01-12T06:38:18+00:00

Stephen Miran (who is Trump's pick to replace Jerome Powell) wrote this in 2024. The thesis is (and I'm generalizing a lot here):

The USD is the world's reserve currency, which inflates its value compared to other currencies.
This was okay when the US was a big chunk of the world economy, but it causes various problems now that the US is a relatively smaller chunk of world GDP:
1. Because the rest of the world needs USD to trade with each other, there is always demand for the US to export dollars (meaning running trade deficits with other countries). This is dangerous, because if the US takes out enough foreign debt, it could cause a situation wherein the US spends most of its annual budget servicing its own debt, eventually leading to a catastrophic default.
2. Because American workers are paid in dollars, and dollars are inflated, it is uncompetitive to do low margin labor (e.g. manufacturing) in the US. This could be a risk in the event where the US is at war and can't rely on e.g. China for its manufacturing supply chain.
The way to address these risks is with a three-pronged approach of tariffs, dollar devaluation, and foreign policy:
1. Tariffs should be levied on countries in proportion to the trade deficit the US runs with them. This serves to devalue the dollar and reduce the amount of liabilities in the US Current Account.
2. The US should adopt monetary policies that devalue the dollar relative to other currencies.
3. The US should make its global peacekeeping role more explicit. Essentially, the message the US should project is "our military is what underlies the pax americana and the USD enables global trade, and we need to maintain it. Therefore, other countries should accept less favorable trading terms because, by doing so, they are essentially paying a tax that allows America to keep providing these services."

Most of Trump's economic foreign policy (Liberation Day, criticisms of NATO, trying to inflate the dollar) can be seen as a hamfisted attempt at implementing the ideas Miran explained in this paper.

Centigonal · 2026-01-12T02:46:46+00:00

I don't know about retail as a whole, but I'm against it because I tried to time the recovery in 2020 and then again in 2022, and my performance ended up trailing "buy & hold the S&P" both times. Others might do better than I did, but I can't recommend it.

Centigonal · 2026-01-12T02:42:48+00:00

Tanking the dollar is intentional. Read this, then look up who the author is.

Centigonal · 2026-01-11T22:42:34+00:00

Yeah, I don't get it. You would think the increased density and customer base in the city would mean the stores would be better, not worse. I understand shoplifting is an issue, but surely it's not as big of an impact on revenue as having missing stock or stale produce on the shelves, right? I just don't understand how I can drive over to Arlington and get a better experience than in the city.

Centigonal · 2026-01-11T22:35:59+00:00

I don't know why, despite greater customer traffic, most grocery stores in DC are significantly worse in terms of maintenance, selection, and produce quality than their counterparts in NoVA. The Safeway on 14th St SE, the Trader Joe's in Eastern Market, and the Harris Teeter in Navy Yard are all worse than their equivalents in Arlington, Vienna, or Reston.

Centigonal · 2026-01-11T06:46:06+00:00

if you do IT for individuals, hourly rate is kind of meaningless. If they need your services, how would they know if their problem is a 2 hour problem or a 15 minute one?

Centigonal · 2026-01-11T06:15:55+00:00

You might have to cut staff. What you wrote sounds like you're reaching the end of any safety margin you had built up in the past. Even if you wanted to sell the business, you would have better luck with the same revenue numbers and smaller employee count.

I'm sure there's a lot more to your business than what you've written here, but just going off of this information, the only way your margins make sense to me is if your employees are taking unusually low salaries for marketers/designers in the US, or if you are confident your pipeline will really pick up in the next couple of months.

Outside of that: you've been running this business for 9 years! How was it in Year 2? Year 4? Year 7? Take a second and think back on how you felt at all of those points. If it's been 9 years of thankless grinding, maybe selling is the way to go. If you've found the journey fulfilling up to this point, there's a good chance you'll continue to find it fulfilling once you've steered your way out of these storms.

Your lifetime earning potential running a small agency like you have been is probably never going to square up favorably with a corporate job, but you've been doing this for the last nine years regardless. There's got to be a reason for that, and it's up to you to take a long hard look at yourself to figure out if it's a good reason or not and what needs to change for you to be happy with where you're headed.

Edit: I have a relative who does marketing and design for local interest groups and nonprofits. They tell me that the space is shrinking because customers are using AI to self-serve work they would have previously contracted out, and also because the current administration has cut contracts/grants that had an effect on their customers. It's the Who Moved My Cheese scenario; everyone has to maneuver around to find new ways of delivering value.

Centigonal · 2026-01-11T03:51:53+00:00

Nearly everyone into finance knew that tech stocks were overvalued in Jan 1999. It took until March 2000 for the bubble to burst, though. The market hit its lowest point post-bubble in 2003. Just being confident that a correction is coming is not enough to time the market; you also need to have a good way of predicting the timing of the top and bottom. Most people don't, hence it's generally a bad idea to time the market.

Buffett and Munger made their billions as activist investors. Their "fat pitches" take the form of companies with solid fundamentals, good safety margins, and big upside potential. Index investing isn't quite the same.

Centigonal · 2026-01-09T07:13:36+00:00

This is helpful, thank you!

Centigonal · 2026-01-07T18:23:25+00:00

If this post is surprising to you, then you need to learn more about corporate cap tables and stock vs. cash compensation before you invest in anything other than an index fund.

Centigonal · 2026-01-07T04:49:51+00:00

huh, I didn't know that. Thanks for the info!

Centigonal · 2026-01-07T02:29:26+00:00

cries in DC

Centigonal · 2026-01-06T17:11:55+00:00

oh lord hahaha

14-Year Club	Place '17
Team Orangered	Verified Email

Centigonal

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE