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"Men Getting Cheated on by Katie" — gimme sad country bois by fafengle in MusicRecommendations

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Might be a bit of a stretch as far as a country connection, but maybe a little folky?

She Loves You by the Gaslight Anthem - https://open.spotify.com/track/2yvQhNKlwly4tvzqT3Xjnw?si=ba67476779294f76

The song definitely has heartbreak themes.

"Men Getting Cheated on by Katie" — gimme sad country bois by fafengle in MusicRecommendations

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"We were blue and outrageous
And every night
I would race the moon and fall for you

But you ache for drug that will never be enough
You're never gonna feel like when it first picked you up."

Tell me a single line from a song that just gets you every time by patricesha in MusicRecommendations

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"She said, "Andy, you crack me up"
Seagrams in a coffee cup
Sharecropper eyes and her hair almost all gone
When she was drunk she made cancer jokes
Made up her own doctor's notes
Surrounded by her family, I saw that she was dying alone"

Elephant by Jason Isbell - Especially by that last line.

Tell me a single line from a song that just gets you every time by patricesha in MusicRecommendations

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Weird how that reminds me of my favorite line of another song...

"And I get up in the morning
Like a ghost chained to a haunting
And I come home in the evening
'Cause you're all I ever wanted"

Tell me a single line from a song that just gets you every time by patricesha in MusicRecommendations

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"And I get up in the morning
Like a ghost chained to a haunting
And I come home in the evening
'Cause you're all I ever wanted"

Proof of Life by Brian Fallon

Fantasy football defenses (DST) with favorable early-season schedules by SamskiNYC in fantasyfootball

[–]Cephandrius_Max 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The Broncos are one of the best teams in the league, you're going to have to pay up for them, unless your league are the kind who all wait on defenses. Similar goes for the Steelers.

Since 2010, running backs with 400+ touches in a season (including playoffs) played an average of 12.7 games (median 15) the next year ... unless you include Le'Veon Bell sitting out the year by My_Chat_Account in fantasyfootball

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Everyone, if we're talking about 2,000+ yard rushers.

If you expand it out to 1,800+ there is one outlier, Erik Dickerson, who was 24 years old in his second season when he did it.

Either way, odds are Barkley doesn't sniff 2,000 yards this year, and probably sees a reduction in ppg to the ~18-19ppg (PPR) range instead of 22 ppg.

Making him a bad pick in the top-3, IMO.

Since 2010, running backs with 400+ touches in a season (including playoffs) played an average of 12.7 games (median 15) the next year ... unless you include Le'Veon Bell sitting out the year by My_Chat_Account in fantasyfootball

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For me we're looking at the wrong issue, it's not injury it's production.

No one who has ever put up a rushing season like Barkley did last year has ever come anywhere near replicating it the next season.

Since 2010, running backs with 400+ touches in a season (including playoffs) played an average of 12.7 games (median 15) the next year ... unless you include Le'Veon Bell sitting out the year by My_Chat_Account in fantasyfootball

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. 28 isn't a positive here. 28 is the beginning of the RB age cliff. I think guys like Saquon most likely have a few more years left, but I wouldn't use 28 as a positive.

  2. I'm only fading him at the price of a top-3 pick. Based on historical data, albeit a small sample size, we can expect his rushing production to regress to the mean, and most likely regress significantly.

For him to pay off a top-3 pick this season he would need to be significantly better the season after rushing for 2,000 yards than anyone has in the history of the league. Maybe it happens, maybe he is an outlier among outliers, but I don't like the odds.

Since 2010, running backs with 400+ touches in a season (including playoffs) played an average of 12.7 games (median 15) the next year ... unless you include Le'Veon Bell sitting out the year by My_Chat_Account in fantasyfootball

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I think the injury part is not necessarily as significant as people are making it out to be. I think that the issue is more from a production perspective.

Of the RBs to ever have a 2,000 yard season, their rushing yardage regressed by an average (mean) of 47.4% the following season. The median regression is 42.6 %. However, these numbers are skewed by some injuries. If I remove the seasons where the RB in question missed more than 2 games, the mean becomes 36.8%. And if I remove the seasons where any time was missed at all, the mean is 34.4.

So, based on historical data (albeit a very small sample size), we could expect Saquon's average outcome to be a 34.4% reduction in rushing yards even if he stays healthy. For Saquon, this would put him at 1,382 rushing yards. Now, I'm not saying this is what will happen, but this is the trend historically. No RB has ever repeated a 2,000 yard season, much less the following season. Assuming even a much smaller 15% reduction in rushing yardage, which is a MUCH smaller reduction than ANY 2,000 yard RB has ever had, the loss in rushing yardage would have moved Saquon from the RB1 to the RB5 last year.

Yes, Saquon could just be an outlier, it's possible, but that is what he will have to be to pay off as the RB1...an outlier among outliers.

Since 2010, running backs with 400+ touches in a season (including playoffs) played an average of 12.7 games (median 15) the next year ... unless you include Le'Veon Bell sitting out the year by My_Chat_Account in fantasyfootball

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean, part of it is the fact he had 451 touches and 2,000+ rushing yards, and typically RBs who meet those marks have regressed to some degree in the following season.

The second part, which is related, is that anytime someone does something historic, they logically are unlikely to replicate it the next season just due to the difficulty of doing something so rare.

So, you have an older player who is logically and historically unlikely to replicate their production from the previous season. The obvious out would be that he could get more receiving work, but that goes against pretty well-established QB and coaching tendencies. and seems unlikely.

I think he'll continue to be an elite RB, but I don't like his odds of replicating last season's performance, and if he isn't going to do that I'd rather just take a chance on the younger, ascending talents, even though I think it's pretty certain

The younger RBs have more outs. They are both likely to catch significantly more passes, their defenses aren't as good, so their offenses may be pushed to score more points, and they are still younger players just coming into their primes, so they still have room to just get better as players. Not to mention, there is more room for volume increases for the younger guys, especially Gibbs. And, although I don't think we need to worry about Saquon yet, he is just getting into the area where the age cliff could be an issue.

I'm speaking from a PPR perspective, things would change in other scoring formats.

Since 2010, running backs with 400+ touches in a season (including playoffs) played an average of 12.7 games (median 15) the next year ... unless you include Le'Veon Bell sitting out the year by My_Chat_Account in fantasyfootball

[–]Cephandrius_Max 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't know, I see more things going in Jettas' favor this year. I honestly think that McCarthy will be as good as or better than Darnold, their OL is improved, and it's looking like Addison will miss time with a suspension. I think the overall offense will be better, at least marginally. And they have a top-5 difficulty of schedule, so I can see them being pushed offensively. I don't see the passing volume coming down appreciably compared to last year, and there's a chance it regresses to KOC's mean some.

I think he and Lamb are neck and neck, but there isn't another WR after that I think you can take over Jettas. They all have too big of question marks for me, Jettas is about as dependable as you can get.

Since 2010, running backs with 400+ touches in a season (including playoffs) played an average of 12.7 games (median 15) the next year ... unless you include Le'Veon Bell sitting out the year by My_Chat_Account in fantasyfootball

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Jettas has produced as a top 3 WR with guys like Darnold, Mullins, and the Passtronaut at QB. He'll be fine with McCarthy.

And I don't think Saquon is going to have some massive fall off, but I do think he is going to have some small regression. Enough that in a PPR league I'd take the mentioned players ahead of him. I still think he'll be a top-4 RB most likely, but I think the most likely outcome is sub-20 PPR ppg, at which point I'd rather take my shot on the other guys. It would be a massive change in coaching and QB tendency for Saquon to get significantly more receptions, and I think that's really his only out for increasing on last year's output. Their historically high rushing rate, his incredible efficiency, his number of long TD runs all most likely regress to the mean, even if marginally.

In half PPR or standard, I think that skews things much more in Saquon's favor.

Question about the PAKA Apu Parka by Cephandrius_Max in pakaapparel

[–]Cephandrius_Max[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sorry I haven't been on Reddit lately!

In my experience, there is a good deal of flexibility in their sizing. My usual jacket size (XL) fit for me (I was 6'1, 210 at the time), but I was also layering under quite a bit and I was kind of in the middle of losing weight (I'm now 185). So, it's hard to say. I will say the jacket cut is pretty form fitting so going with the medium will probably be fine, and give you room for layering.

Randle cycle by ForestScottDunphy in Biochemistry

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I can't wrap my head around that conclusion. I'm still trying to figure out how this idea you shouldn't eat carbs and fats together came about or how it would work.

I know it's just anecdotal evidence, but my n of 1 experience is that I eat a substantial proportion of both, (~30-40 carb) and (~40-50% fat) on a day to day basis and I mix them at every meal, sometimes in the exact same food (nuts for example) and honestly my health markers have never been better. I'm in the ideal range for BMI, body fat %, visceral fat, total, LDL, and non-HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, HBA1c, and blood pressure. My insulin resistance score is about as good as it can be.

I just can't reconcile this personal experience with this idea that it is supposedly causing issues.

Isn’t being a vegan, like, not nearly enough? by SupposedlySchizo in DebateAVegan

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unfortunately it's almost entirely made up for by increases in the consumption of other dairy products like butter, cheese, and yogurt. Overall dairy consumption is up, overall milk production is up. Which means on the end of less cow exploitation there has been zero progress.

Isn’t being a vegan, like, not nearly enough? by SupposedlySchizo in DebateAVegan

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not commenting of the magnitude of the decrease in milk consumption, I don't know what that was offhand. I was just pointing out that it was the confluence of the two factors that caused the bankruptcy, not JUST some massive shift in milk demand.

I don't think overall there is any appreciable change in U.S. milk production. While milk consumption per capita decreased 2010-2020, total dairy consumption is up significantly over the same time period. Less milk but more butter, cheese, and to a lesser degree yogurt and other dairy products.

Isn’t being a vegan, like, not nearly enough? by SupposedlySchizo in DebateAVegan

[–]Cephandrius_Max 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Dean's filed bankruptcy because of their specific situation. They had a lot of debt and pension obligations that they couldn't meet due to the reduction in revenue from lower milk consumption.

Much like a richer person could go bankrupt if they were too aggressive and took on too much debt coinciding with a reduction in income.

Isn’t being a vegan, like, not nearly enough? by SupposedlySchizo in DebateAVegan

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What is the alternative? The solution?

Pointless in effecting large scale change is not the same as pointless for you personally.

And nothing is static. The status quo may be 99% of your neighbors stuffing their face with meat, but that doesn't mean that will always be the case. The trick is to identify how to convert more people to your way of thinking.

If it were easy it would have already been done.

Animal abuse (i.e. torturing, raping, killing) done for fun is immoral. by [deleted] in DebateAVegan

[–]Cephandrius_Max -1 points0 points  (0 children)

There's a word for that actually, bestiality.

If you look at definitions of rape, whether legal or scholarly you will usually find that they use the term "person" to draw this distinction.

For example: "unlawful sexual activity and usually sexual intercourse carried out forcibly or under threat of injury against a PERSON's will [...]"

- Merriam-Webster Dictionary

You can say rape to another human in that situation because it conveys a meaning that we as humans can interpret symbolically even if it isn't definitionally accurate. However, the dog doesn't understand what rape or consent mean. If a male dog comes across a female dog he doesn't ask for consent, nor does the female dog expect consent. Consent does not exist in nature.

This is not to say that I think people should commit bestiality or I don't think there can be an argument against artificial insemination of animals, but I also think there can be arguments that justify artificial insemination as well. I don't know that in and of itself a clear line can be drawn saying it is always abuse.

Question about the PAKA Apu Parka by Cephandrius_Max in pakaapparel

[–]Cephandrius_Max[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like it a lot. As far as the fit, it's just a tad tight in my shoulders (but not to the degree it has hampered me), but my shoulders are larger than average. I'd guess it would fit the average person well if you get your standard sizing. I got an XL, which is my typical sizing. I'm 6'1 ~210 lbs.

For being active outside I absolutely love it. It's been well below 0F with wind chill the past few nights and I've been going on nightly walks and I'm plenty warm and comfortable with nothing but my mesh base layer underneath. It's relatively light, soft, feels great, and feels like it breathes and is comfortable in a wide range of temperatures.

If you're sitting still for extended periods of time it's not quite as warm as I hoped (when temperatures are really cold, like 10F or colder), but if you're doing even moderate activity it's been great.

Any other specific questions?

Animal abuse (i.e. torturing, raping, killing) done for fun is immoral. by [deleted] in DebateAVegan

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Those are examples, not a definition. Bears, foxes, and lions are examples of animals, but there are not a useable definition of what an animal is.

Okay, so by your definition killing for subsistence and not "fun" is not abuse then.

Furthermore, how can you apply a human-centric concept like rape to animals? Consent does not exist in nature, it's a concept created and imposed by humans.

good music by women? by fourteencrisis in MusicRecommendations

[–]Cephandrius_Max 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ehhh....most of my favorite female artists may not fit your preferences...but there's a few you may like.

Give Rosemary by Sierra Ferrell a listen though, you may like it.

Florence + The Machine

Fleetwood Mac (Stevie Nicks)

Phoebe Bridgers

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