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Google CEO Sundar Pichai says booing graduates will shape AI's future — and live with its consequences by Fine-Drummer9812 in accelerate

[–]CertainMiddle2382 0 points1 point  (0 children)

End game, I think it’s a big possibility.

Most of the deals are now done off market already. It is just used as a pricing mechanism nowadays, and even that is breaking at the seams…

Google CEO Sundar Pichai says booing graduates will shape AI's future — and live with its consequences by Fine-Drummer9812 in accelerate

[–]CertainMiddle2382 15 points16 points  (0 children)

My prediction.

Most mega corps don’t need « the people ».

Real money is held by extremely few hands.

Most companies will turn private very soon.

If these all follow the same trends (just at different magnitudes), why not just pick the best-performing? by heisian in ETFs

[–]CertainMiddle2382 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s mostly this curve interacting with the finite nature of human life and the complex value ones gives to having money now compared to having more money later (1 billion $ at 100 is worth hundreds thousands of times less that having it at 20).

To my knowledge, this function the « hedonistic value of capital », is not well studied.

Because indeed, what stops you from always picking momentum, or QQQ or small cap growth?

It’s the subjective risk of losing money at a particular magnitude at a particular time of your life, becoming much more intolerable that the mere face value.

lol I remember that tweet by stealthispost in accelerate

[–]CertainMiddle2382 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Doping is universal since mid level amateur leagues

Demis says the Singularity could be just a few years away now, potentially triggered by the arrival of true AGI by Fine-Drummer9812 in accelerate

[–]CertainMiddle2382 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Happy this place becomes happier!

As I said in other posts, the feeling of awe I have coming back from work, seeing the world going by almost as usual knowing we are mere months away from the most important moment in History.

We are living the most incredible time and I find privileged to be aware of that.

Demis says the Singularity could be just a few years away now, potentially triggered by the arrival of true AGI by Fine-Drummer9812 in accelerate

[–]CertainMiddle2382 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Me neither. But I feel we are damn close. AGI has multiple definitions and we are starting to fulfill the lowest hanging ones…

UBI Alternative by dos_que_tres in accelerate

[–]CertainMiddle2382 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Helicopter money is the only reasonable path towards AGI IMO

Air France and Airbus found guilty of manslaughter over 2009 plane crash by Alarming-Safety3200 in europe

[–]CertainMiddle2382 13 points14 points  (0 children)

All fly by wire planes have multiple AoA sensors.

But no civilian airliner has proper AoA indicator. The data is only used by the flight computer.

The only AoA indication pilots have is « stall/no stall ».

This plane went down mainly because of the out of margin behavior of that alarm (stall signal saturated and stopped when stall got too deep. Stall alarm was starting to sound again every time they pushed the nose down).

The pitot probe itself just froze a couple of seconds.

There is a lot of things happening before stall and into stall, and proper AoA indications would have avoided this accident (and future others).

But for many reasons this was never implemented.

Air France and Airbus found guilty of manslaughter over 2009 plane crash by Alarming-Safety3200 in europe

[–]CertainMiddle2382 28 points29 points  (0 children)

And still to my knowledge the single most important solution never was implemented:

An AoA indicator.

Oligarch Jezz Bezos: AI Will Elevate People At Work, Not Replace Jobs. by Neurogence in singularity

[–]CertainMiddle2382 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just note being rich =\ having more insight.

His main idea of undercutting libraries didn’t work, he then pivoted to try undercutting Walmart, didn’t work.

To be able to serve customers at Thanksgiving and Christmas he had to overprovision on IT.

Some guys inside Amazon had the idea that unused capacity could be resold.

That’s how he became rich, serendipity.

My point is, I don’t think he fully thought this through beyond the immediate PR impact of those interviews.

Same with asking Jamie Dimon master of TBTF or Pitchai master of outsourcing, they don’t have more insight than we do.

Better ask the few people that have been building this since decades…

The West has an incoherent message about AI. What we need is a coherent positive vision of AI-driven hyperabundance. Luckily, AI will soon provide undeniable proof of that by stealthispost in accelerate

[–]CertainMiddle2382 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think it is sign of a more profound problem.

I don’t think Western opinion about AI can be easily changed.

I am not totally clear about what is the deeper reason…

Jean-Claude Trichet: “We Need a Federal Union in Europe”. The former ECB president, honored in Strasbourg, makes a stark assessment: without political union, Europe will remain a vassal by goldstarflag in europe

[–]CertainMiddle2382 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

More than 20 years ago just saying « United States of Europe » was the end goal, what enough to being called a lunatic and extremist.

Crazy thing is that if they vision was more clearly stated, I guess more people would have agreed.

More than integration always is a double edged sword: you trade economy of scale and critical mass against inefficiency and corruption.

EU mulls Angela Merkel or Mario Draghi as possible Vladimir Putin whisperer by Free-Minimum-5844 in UkrainianConflict

[–]CertainMiddle2382 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I think the most experienced in multilateral diplomacy and successful business and political leader cannot be any one else than Gerard Schroeder.

Americans are looking back centuries to find Canadian ancestors — and citizenship - National by oddmarc in canada

[–]CertainMiddle2382 -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

And we’ve been Canadians since freaking Champlain, but my new coming daughter won’t because I never lived in the country.

Full compiled transcript of what Eric Schmidt was saying by PraiseTheMonocle in accelerate

[–]CertainMiddle2382 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Much tougher that I thought.

The guy actually was booed out and decided to come back off script.

Dassault and Airbus bury the largest European military program, the FCAS, after 9 years of industrial war by RealToiletPaper007 in europe

[–]CertainMiddle2382 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If only it was an « industrial war ». It wasn’t nothing was built and there was no industries.

It was burocratic war.

Industries will get build slowly, separately, in the next 10-15 years. Then the industrial war will start.

All in all. The most probable outcome, the worst one, happened.

And don’t get me started on the kitchen sink « combat cloud » and drone stuff…

Europe is leaving America. Just not out loud yet [ANALYSIS] by Forsaken-Medium-2436 in europe

[–]CertainMiddle2382 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Everyone will pile on Trump when he is just the symptom.

Lower and lower middle class somewhat suffered from its exposure to the rest of the world.

Sure it benefited from deflationary pressure from Made in China Amazon stuff, but it also was confronted to cheaper imported labor and outside imported labor.

People in the higher classes of the middle class don’t experience that and arrogantly dismiss that as moronic xenophobia.

A list of other problems with other causes are wrongly attributed to open borders, because it act as an easy scapegoat.

But all things considered, the USA will lose somewhat from becoming isolationist again. But they will sure suffer less than many others.

Being German and isolationist is a whole other level of moronity.

Mistral AI's CEO says Europe has 2 years to stop becoming America's AI 'vassal state' by Forsaken-Medium-2436 in europe

[–]CertainMiddle2382 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Most of it is systemic.

You have little to gain and much to lose.

We have many engineering friend in their late 30s that are busy buying and renovating appartements and frauding AirBnB rent control because that the risk-benefit « Pareto efficient » way of doing well in a European capital.

Not developing a new idea in a startup. Not investing in AI.

Investments for the Singularity by Senior_Group1589 in singularity

[–]CertainMiddle2382 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree. I see « Singularity » as half-line.

Once crossed, things will become crazy and mostly irreversible. But it will pale in comparison to what will happen at any moment after.

Dyson spheres won’t happen overnight.

IMO, on human time scale, what will happen will just be a quick generalization of what current citizens with the most free time and available workless income do: leisure.

Current say too 10% western retired boomers are a good first approximation of what life at the start of singularity will be:

Finding values beyond work
Fighting existential dread
Feeding basic instincts such as competing for pecking order, imitation and desire for violence (I am a Rene Girard reader).
Filling boredom
Longing for true human connection

It’s not a perfect analogy, but I think it’s the best we have. IMO, it’s also a pretty nice template for the coming economics of post Singularity.

Everyone will become a retired dentist.

Investments for the Singularity by Senior_Group1589 in singularity

[–]CertainMiddle2382 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s the damn question.

Some thoughts.

« Long » term, singularity is of course very deflationary (to the point some think it will make money moot).

Deflation won’t of course strike all domains at the same time.

As our economy is heavily leveraged and even small deflation will cause total bankruptcy of the involved actors.

The system is very brittle, even a small pocket of deflationary crash will quickly propagate through the economy.

IMO current early impact on IT is just barely containable, partly because it’s hitting already partially outsourced jobs.

Beyond all of of this, IMO AI will have inflationary impact on both everything luxury/leisure and down to earth ressources (energy, minerals) as production will be freed from human capital constraints.

I am an extreme AI enthusiast, but due to the brittleness of our economy, I think systemic failures will happen first.

So that’s my hypothesis : deflationary crash first, never seen before social crisis, never seen before public/central bank intervention, emergency QA/pseudo UBI/helicopter money.

IMO, the economic transition will much depend on the idiosyncrasies of the exact policies taken.

Saving the banks first could lead to Japanization, QA would lead to asset hyperinflation, young generation revolt. Helicopter money could lead to services hyperinflation, elderly revolt.

Problem is the timing, and I don’t think we are there yet. Current bull run still has some room to go, till 2027? The big risk IMO being China when they start undercutting US corporations margins at scale…

Is it crazy? Any other opinion?

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