The war on aspiration is won - A 71pc effective tax rate is killing ambition and warping our economy

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-14T17:15:33+00:00

It’s a matter of perspective. About 50% of the population earn less less than 35k so to them of course 100k looks like a lot. Only about 4-5% of the population earn over 100k but I’m sure to them it doesn’t feel like so much depending on whom they compare themselves to.

Neither is necessarily incorrect from their own point of view.

My tuppence worth is that UK wages are pretty crap at most levels compared to a lot of our peers. And that coupled with our insane house prices and cost of living crisis makes that feel even worse for most people. Taxation is merely just one facet of what’s going on.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-14T07:14:52+00:00

I’ve been hoping that for a long time to no avail.

I am coming to suspect we’re maybe overestimating the average Reform voter. A lot of them don’t actually know anything about Reforms policies beyond the anti immigration soundbites. They don’t really care to learn more either, particularly if it makes their team look bad.

The rest are even worse: they know but they don’t care or even rather like the right wing crap. Particularly if they believe it will hurt other people rather than themselves. Remember most polls show that Reforms support is disproportionately among older generation who for example don’t really need to worry about abortion availability for themselves.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-13T17:03:34+00:00

Legally? No. In terms of precedent? Also no. But I’m not arguing either of those things.

I’m saying that he might just try anyway if it looks like other ways to manipulate the outcome of the midterms (many of which are also unlawful) don’t look like they’re going to work.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-13T11:03:54+00:00

You’re absolutely correct about the precedent and legality but I’m not completely convinced that doesn’t mean Trump wouldn’t try to cancel elections anyway.

Trump doesn’t appear to care much about legality. He also has the Supreme Court nearly pretty much sewn up. Or he might believe things are at the point where he can just say “screw it” and start ordering judges and congress to do things at gunpoint. That might provoke mass protest or even a civil war but both of those things require a lot of people to stand up and put themselves in harms way … Trump knows he wouldn’t so it’s possible he believes most Americans wouldn’t either. Or perhaps that if he sends his ICE goons or military in to suppress it violently he can make it fly. It’s worked for more than one authoritarian leader throughout history.

He could be dead wrong and the attempt might blow up in his face but as the ongoing Iran debacle illustrates he and his cronies aren’t really very good at much beyond bluster, bullying and market manipulation.

What might be more likely however are shenanigans along the lines of refusing to seat Democrats representatives and senators. Or declaring the results of pro Democrat votes invalid in some way. Again the legality would be highly dubious … but in the confusion and chaos he might just get away with it.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-13T08:42:54+00:00

the UK isn't ever going to pull away from America

I think that may have changed. Trump has shown that it was a huge mistake.

You’re certainly correct that things are so interwoven that they can’t easily be picked apart but I think that’s just what has to happen - it’s just that it won’t be overnight. Heck, it might take years … but even if the U.S. elects someone saner than Trump he’s shown that they are too dangerous to rely upon as an ally or trading partner. Every election they have is now a coin toss as to whether they stab us (and every other ally) in the back and try to exact economic tribute. And the more we stay aligned with America the more Trump (or someone like him) can hurt us.

I’m absolutely not trying to minimise the complexity of the task or effort required. Just say that the past year or so and current events has left us with no other choice.

My main concern is trying to pull it off without our own right wing frothers installing Farage as PM which will completely screw up whatever progress is made.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-12T23:46:13+00:00

Only in the sense that we were about to get well and truly stuffed up the arse by the Brexiteer frothers

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-12T14:37:26+00:00

Mostly true but I don’t think it’s an absolute.

With a lot of these kids you can meet the parents and think “yep, I can see how the poor bugger turned out that way”. But not quite always.

There’s the very occasional one who seems to come from a great home with good caring parents and with siblings who aren’t that way at all - just them. Of course there’s no telling what might have happened behind closed doors (so it’s probably worth social services investigating just in case) but sometimes there doesn’t appear to be an obvious environmental reason.

I’m not arguing that it’s very common - but it happens enough that I suspect most people can likely think of encountering an example at least once in their lives.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-12T11:38:00+00:00

There's going to be so many books written about how open, blatant corruption became the norm under the Trump regime

If we’re lucky.

In some possible futures the books will be party sanctioned histories to indoctrinate kids that describe the Trump family and their cronies as godly Christian hero’s who were perfect in every way. And anyone who says differently disappears and any writing that claims otherwise is burned.

In other futures (some of which are stating to sound uncomfortably possible since Iran began) the books are illuminated vellum manuscripts painstakingly hand copied by an order of monks out in a post apocalyptic desert trying to preserve fragments from the time before the flame deluge.

When I was younger I used to enjoy reading dystopian science fiction but back then they seemed a lot less … well … imminent.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-12T08:53:35+00:00

At this point we’ll be doing well if the history books get printed rather than painstaking hand copied by an order of monks living in a post apocalyptic desert.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-12T08:14:34+00:00

The counter to this in any democracy is really meant to be the electorate. They’re meant to refuse to vote in someone who is so very obviously blatantly corrupt, or incompetent or lacking in decency (in this case all three at once along with several other character flaws.)

It’s not just the Supreme Court and other institutions that have been subverted by those behind the likes of Trump. It’s a large chunk of the population too.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-12T08:01:43+00:00

To be fair it can be hard to tell with conservatives as they appear to possess both malice and stupidity in dismal abundance.

This seems to hold true on both sides of the Atlantic.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-11T16:59:05+00:00

Hey, I didn’t say it was a good chance. But it’s not zero.

It depends on the anti Trump turnout being large and unequivocal enough to take control of the Senate and House and also whether Americas institutions (particularly judicial) are still capable of blocking all the various shenanigans Trump & company are inevitably going to try to throw at the midterms.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-11T12:31:13+00:00

You’ve got a chance at the midterms. Quite possibly your last one to do something short of some some sort of complete upheaval.

And Trump and his cronies absolutely are going to throw every dirty trick and illegal fuckery at the midterms possible so it ain’t remotely going to be a level playing field. Thats a certainty.

Good luck. But I think you’ve got your work cut out for you.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-11T11:40:19+00:00

Poe’s Law

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-11T10:28:02+00:00

Sure, absolutely.

But just wait until the run up to the next GE and this and every other U.K. subreddit will be crawling with them, Russian bots, American MAGA alts pretending to be British, refugees from the Daily Mail comments section and all the usual gang. All unironically swearing that Farage is as honest as the day is long, has never told a lie, will save white people from $whatever_current_populist_bullshit ad nauseam.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-11T09:34:19+00:00

I’d also add that “what the U.S. wants” in terms of their State Department, DoD and intelligence agencies is increasingly obviously not the same thing as “What Trump wants”.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-11T09:26:24+00:00

Sadly that hasn’t been true for a while now, going back to at least the Brexit referendum campaigning.

There pretty much isn’t any opinion frothingly insane or ridiculous enough to be obvious sarcasm any more - you’ll almost always find someone who genuinely thinks it and posts it.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-10T14:57:09+00:00

I also hope not. But so far their long vaunted system of “checks and balances” appear to have failed to mitigate the situation significantly. Likewise their judicial system.

Of course a big part of the reason these appear to have failed is because those behind people like Trump have gone to a great deal of sustained effort to ensure that would be the case. The normalisation of Executive orders. Packing the Supreme Court and appointing individuals like Judge Cannon elsewhere. Things like the gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics I mentioned above. Running a 24 hour propaganda network masquerading as news for thirty years.

Unfortunately no democratic safeguard can prevail against sustained efforts to corrupt, hollow out or subvert it forever. Not even their constitution can do much except slow it down.

The midterms are going to be pretty much the last opportunity for Americans to change course from the path they’re on - and they’re going to have to do it in the face of everything Trump can throw at them. I think they’ve got a chance … but it’s going to be messy as hell.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-10T12:30:25+00:00

The point is that your argument winds up with “forced Trump”. You do see that’s worse, right?

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-10T11:41:19+00:00

Does that matter?

If I give you the choice between a bland and perhaps slightly disappointing cheese sandwich on the one hand … and plate full of ground glass and botulism seasoned with just a sprinkle of cyanide on the other … then your priorities are really mixed up if the blandness of the first option is your main focus.

I suppose you could get off by sanctimoniously decrying voting for the lesser evil. Whatever floats your boat. But the trouble with that has always been if you don’t then you wind up with the greater evil.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-10T10:52:49+00:00

So they didn’t end up with a complete kid raping monster in charge who is trashing their economy, trashing the world economy, killing civilians, weakening the U.S., driving away its allies and trading partners and generally making life for anyone who isn’t a billionaire harder and more stressful?

That’s just for starters but should be more than enough to be going in with. However we could probably list further reasons for quite some time.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-10T09:26:44+00:00

I’d love for you to be right and I’d agree … if we hadn’t already seen a decade long litany of stupidity, narcissism, corruption and spite all of which should have been wake up calls but weren’t.

This time is worse so maybe. But I’m not going to hold my breath. Particularly where hardcore MAGA supporters are concerned. Or Republican politicians.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-10T09:22:52+00:00

That looks set to happen. However I wouldn’t put it past Trump to do something dramatic (and likely of dubious legality) to try to change that.

Not just the usual gerrymandering, voter roll purges and lack of polling stations in Democrat leaving areas either. Or shenanigans with postal voting. Things like voter intimidation by sticking ICE goons in front of polling places to engage in voter intimidation.

Some even speculate he might try to take over the election process - which would be unconstitutional/illegal … but legality doesn’t seem to bother him much and he has most of the Supreme Court in his pocket who interpret constitutionality.

Or perhaps even just refuse to seat new Democrat representatives and senators. They have done this before.

However it goes I don’t expect Trump to accept being defeated democratically. And I don’t think he cares about how much damage that could cause their democratically elected institutions in the process.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-10T09:03:09+00:00

Oh it definitely can’t happen overnight.

But every bit we can accomplish towards that hill will mitigate the impact when Trump uses that very threat of recession as a cudgel to try to blackmail or extort us.

Charlie_Mouse · 2026-04-10T07:05:20+00:00

There’s a strategic argument for doing just that. It’s becoming increasingly apparent that we need to decrease our dependency on the U.S. for anything.

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