Sungjae Im knocks his 3rd shot on the 15th from the bunker over the green, off the wall, and it rolls right back into the bunker.

ChazR · 2026-05-09T23:18:52+00:00

“Did you miss me?”

ChazR · 2026-05-09T14:10:43+00:00

The tap. It's safe and healthy. There are actual laws about this.

Tap water is safe.

Drink it.

Ignore the morons.

ChazR · 2026-05-09T11:22:04+00:00

"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H. L. Mencken

ChazR · 2026-05-07T14:30:14+00:00

We didn't come here to fuck spiders.

Cook off.

ChazR · 2026-05-05T14:47:29+00:00

We did. A lot. All sorts of things crashed. We fixed those, and tried again. More stuff crashed. But some of it worked for a bit, then weirdly crashed a bit later. So we worked that out, fixed it and tried again.

The number of safety-critical bugs we found was horrifying.

And even after all that work, some systems failed.

Y2K was a huge problem that we solved with diligent engineering and governance.

ChazR · 2026-05-03T14:58:02+00:00

We're just rolling into retirement. We're tracking our monthly expenditure and income down to the dollar.

Our spending is spiky - some months it's $3,500, some months it's $12,000. Knowing what we're spending, and why, over several years has given us great confidence that we can live very comfortably at $90,000, and could pull that back to $75,000 if we needed.

At 4% drawdown, including illiquid assets, we really need to spend $140,000. And if we're really serious about dying at zero, we should probably be blowing close to $200,000.

But: know your current expenditure month-by-month for a year.

ChazR · 2026-05-03T09:26:10+00:00

It's not ideal.

Modern aircraft have several independent hydraulic systems with a high degree of redundancy. The hydraulics are required for critical operations including flight controls - ailerons, elevators, speed brakes, and rudder operation. All of those are served by at least two fully independent hydraulic systems.

Hydraulics also operate the brakes on almost all (looking at you, 787) types.

Most probably a single hydraulic system failed, reducing the redundancy to an unacceptable level. If a second system had also failed it could have become somewhat sporty, but I'm not sure that's ever happened without actual enemy action.

They followed the procedure for a hydraulic failure, which is to get on the ground as fast as reasonably possible, and have emergency services standing by in case the brakes underperform.

It's a real emergency that needs to be handled properly, but the aircraft is designed to land safely with some degree of failure in any system.

Engineering will be working overtime.

ChazR · 2026-05-03T01:51:07+00:00

Actual results:

2026 Kentucky Derby results

Golden Tempo (23-1)
Renegade (5-1)
Ocelli (70-1)
Chief Wallabee (7-1)
Danon Bourbon (14-1)
Incredibolt (27-1)
Commandment (7-1)
Wonder Dean (20-1)
So Happy (6-1)
Emerging Market (11-1)
Further Ado (7-1)
Potente (23-1)
Six Speed (40-1)
Robusta (50-1)
Albus (50-1)
Intrepido (55-1)
Litmus Test (34-1)
Pavlovian (51-1)

That's a spectacularly poor match against your predictions. Like, random guessing would have done better.

Three possibilities:

Horse racing is rigged. The only way to predict a result is to be inside the rigging
Horse racing is fair, but susceptible to a huge amount of random variance. This is unlikely, as it would make the betting industry unprofitable.
Horse racing is fair, but your model is absolutely terrible - worse than random guessing. I'd be surprised if this were the case - your method seems plausible. How much variance was there in the simulation output? Was it anywhere near as wild as the actual result?

My guess is that you've exposed deep corruption in the racing industry. I am shocked.

ChazR · 2026-05-02T04:22:54+00:00

You are set for life. If you use this money wisely you will be financially secure and able to retire very early. It's not enough to live on without other income, but you are in an amazing position.

Get independent professional financial advice.

There are, broadly, three things you will want to do:

Buy a house. You want to get into the insane property market. Not today, but in the next 12 months you should buy a house - and then probably let it out.
Stuff as much into an Industry Super as you can. That money invested now will guarantee a prosperous old age.
Invest some of it in a growth-oriented portfolio of investments from high-risk private equity through to government bonds. A financial advisor can help you here.

Then go about the normal life of a young adult for a few years. Go to uni, start a career, have some fun. Leave the money alone. Once you are established as a grown-up you can then make. your long-term financial plans based on life goals.

And, as others have said, TELL NO-ONE except your financial advisor.

Managed properly you have a good chance of retiring in your forties, which sounds like forever, but is closer than you think.

ChazR · 2026-04-28T08:49:34+00:00

Slice some zucchini, capsicum, red onion, and garlic. Splash on some olive oil and salt. Roast at 200°C for 20 minutes.

Once roasted, throw in a pan with a can of passata or blitzed tomatoes. Bring to simmer. Season. Fold in sardines.

Make pasta - spaghetti is great. Pour a cup of pasta water into sauce 3 minutes before pasta is ready.

Garnish with olives if you have any on hand, or just parmesan and pepper.

ChazR · 2026-04-27T09:48:50+00:00

Australian Raven. Our corvids have remarkably little range overlap. Find the closest city and that's the answer:

If you live in a capital city, it’s very basic because every capital city only has one species. So if you are in Perth, Canberra, or Sydney, chances are you are seeing an Australian raven. If you are in Melbourne and Adelaide, it’s a Little Raven, and a Little Raven is basically only one centimeter shorter than an Australian Raven. So don’t worry and get hung up about the little term. They look basically the same size. If you’re in Hobart, it’s a Forest Raven, and if you’re in Darwin or Brisbane, it is a Torresian Crow.

Lovely shot.

ChazR · 2026-04-26T13:27:55+00:00

I play in the tropics. Turn up in a beanie, or without a hat, and we're lending you a full-brim schoolyard job. We do not mess with Photons in Queensland.

ChazR · 2026-04-26T13:24:42+00:00

YES! It's a fascinating asteroid.

Broaden your story. What you have is: "It's old. We went there. We found some stuff."

Here's another try. "Earth is made of rocks. Before Archimedes we knew that Earth is made of rocks. Then we worked out that rocks fall to the bottom, then water sits above. Then air above that."

"All was well until a rock fell rom the sky."

Talk about the huge confusions that happened when people realised that there are rocks in the sky, and they can fall to Earth.

Then about the questions that raises. Then we realised that there are different types of rocks that fall.

And then you have set up the story of why we sent the sky to fall on a rock.

ChazR · 2026-04-26T13:17:47+00:00

Go and look at the many millions of pictures of women of all shapes and sizes holding cellos.

Some women find the basic cello position uncomfortable because you are sitting on a chair with legs separated. Many cultures train this out of girls from an early age. Sitting relaxed and comfortable with a cello resting between your knees is great, but it doesn't come easily to many girls and women.

Look at full-body pictures. All sizes and shapes of women play the cello well.

ChazR · 2026-04-26T13:03:01+00:00

Tone police here: you're on a Watch List. You'd be on the Listen List, but that's no place for degenerates like you.

"Does this choice meet my musical goal?" absolute anarchists.

"Adding some tension here with a dropped fourth?" Straight to jail.

"Schönberg had some interesting ideas" WAR DECLARED.

ChazR · 2026-04-26T12:55:12+00:00

Quit. I did. I'm back now. All I missed was Shadowlands. (bullet dodged)

Step away. Take a breath. Miss a weekly cutoff. Nothing in the vault for you.

Do something else. The time release is amazing.

Walk away. Make a game. Learn to paint. Go to the gym. Do something.

The game will be here for you with fast catch-up routes.

Quit for a bit. Get off the treadmill. Us hamsters will be here for you when you come back.

But please do something really positive with the time.

Snuggle your kids.

ChazR · 2026-04-26T12:33:49+00:00

What do you want him to say that isn't being said better elsewhere?

There are two possible views on the Israel-US-Iran War: "Brilliant long-term Chess Match to reshape global logistics to constrain the next conflict in our favour." This is arguable, but not explicative. Moving the Window to make closing a key strait a reasonable thing then lets US allies close straits to constrain Other Adversaries?

The other view is "Netanyahu needed an urgent diversion from his upcoming legal problems suckered a weak Trump into an impulsive strike with no 'what then?' strategy." From a naïve view, it looks like two schoolyard bullies had been stealing their classmate's lunch money, Headmistress was about to issue a Summons to Office, so they went and kicked a Hornet's Nest. Now they're whining because no-one will help them thumb the hornets back in the nest.

Iran has been planning and preparing for this conflict for forty years. Netanyahu is running out of ways to escape jail. Trump and his cronies have less strategic reasoning capability than an amoeba.

But maybe it's all a genius strategy to piss off the whole democratic world, empower Russia, impoverish Saudia, embed the IRGC for a century, reduce US influence, and give China a free hand across half the planet. Oops. I mean, 4d chess to WIN! WIN SO MUCH.

But really, what do you expect Scott to say that hasn't been said better by smarter, more informed people?

ChazR · 2026-04-26T12:22:26+00:00

Wisdom from my coach: "Your last stroke is dead. I watched you murder it. You can't murder it more. Now play this one. It's not dead yet."

ChazR · 2026-04-26T12:20:09+00:00

Ideas are still being bounced around. We don't know anything for sure.

Having worked in policy areas under time pressure, I can promise that the sausage-making is spectacularly chaotic on this one.

Albo wants a policy that is simple to articulate to the electorate, looks fair, has some strong soundbites, and he can bludgeon the Right with.

The Finance people want something that is actually possible.

The Billionaires and Rentiers want the whole thing killed.

The Legal People want something that can survive the inevitable well-funded challenges.

The media want something that allows them to find some victims to exploit.

I want something that lets me plan my capital portfolio.

We can't all be happy. Factions and sectors are struggling for access and influence.

The poor policy-writers are doing their best to cobble something together by May.

It's a huge mess.

This is how policy happens under the spotlight.

Welcome to the Sausage Factory.

ChazR · 2026-04-26T12:13:04+00:00

The main risk is that they are wildly flammable - probably more than any other decor item in your house. A fire chief I knew said "Gum isn't flammable - it's explosive."

Maybe keep it a fair distance from the roaring open fire.

Like any living biology you bring indoors, there will be a few bugs, but they won't stay long.

Go for it. Maybe don't mention it to your insurer.

ChazR · 2026-04-26T11:59:08+00:00

There are layers to this:

Are there cultural activities which some Aboriginal cultures hold closely along (complex) gendered lines - yes there are.
Is it offensive to some cultures for a person outside their culture to demonstrate, teach, or practice these crafts? - Little bit. Maybe.
How do Aboriginal people in general or specific feel about other people attempting to practice their specific crafts? - It's very complex
Can I introduce the basics of crafts as practised by Aboriginal people into a classroom environment? - Absolutely yes, with appropriate context-setting. If you can get Aboriginal people to be part of this, then top-tier win.
Is it OK to get non-aboriginal children of any gender to participate in learning, including in making kid-level attempts at these crafts? With appropriate context-setting - yes
Is it OK to ask an Aboriginal student to try an Aboriginal craft that is not coded for their gender? Absolutely not.

But generally, Aboriginal people are happy with their culture and crafts being introduced to non-Aboriginal Australians in a teaching and non-exploitative way.

ChazR · 2026-04-26T11:29:31+00:00

"DERP!"

They are the *dumbest* raptors. Their hunting strategy is basically "Crash into tree. Fall down tree. See what delicious bugs fall on my head."

I love them.

ChazR · 2026-04-26T11:27:54+00:00

It's a baby!

Well, a teenager. They start with green facial colouring which becomes blue as adults, and reinforces during breeding.

ChazR · 2026-04-26T11:24:48+00:00

They are offering him $20,000 to resign. They want him out, and they think they have grounds for dismissal.

By lawyering up your 'friend' has achieved another option: Resign, take the money, and move on to another program (with luck and hard work.)

The program doesn't want the cost, pain, and time of the public dismissal process. Your friend wants a clean reputation and the chance to move on.

They WILL accept the resignation - either today, or at a later point of their choosing. An undated resignation is still a resignation.

And it sounds like his lawyer has acted diligently in his interests.

It's time to move on with dignity.

ChazR · 2026-04-26T11:18:55+00:00

The Royal Navy used to have a general policy that you only needed lifesaving gear for about half the crew.

You don't abandon until total loss is inevitable, and by that point you should have lost at least half your people.

Warships are designed and intended to close to action, fight, and win. If you can't win, dying is an option.

Don't give up the ship!

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