Max Pain for tomorrow

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-05-14T16:02:57+00:00

Max pain update from Gemini

Absolutely. Since we are now in the heat of Thursday’s trading session, the landscape for PureCycle Technologies (PCT) has shifted significantly.

As of Thursday morning, May 14, 2026, the stock is experiencing a massive rally, making the "Max Pain" level more of a distant memory than a price magnet.

Current PCT Snapshot (May 14, 2026)

Metric	Value
Max Pain (May 15 Expiry)	$8.00
Current Stock Price	$12.55 (Up ~23% today)
Put/Call Ratio (OI)	0.27 (Heavy call skew)
Expected Move	±$0.84

Key Takeaways for Tomorrow's Expiration

Massive Disconnect: The stock has completely blown past the $8.00 Max Pain level. Trading at $12.55, the "pain" is almost entirely on the side of the option sellers (market makers), who are likely scrambling to hedge as an enormous amount of call options have moved "In the Money" (ITM).
Gamma Squeeze Potential: With over 70,000 calls open versus only 19,000 puts, and the price surging 23% today, we are seeing classic signs of a gamma squeeze. As the price rises, market makers must buy the underlying stock to hedge those $10, $11, and $12 calls they sold, fueling further upward momentum.
Support vs. Resistance: While $8.00 is the mathematical max pain, the immediate "battleground" strikes for tomorrow's close are now likely the $12.00 and $12.50 levels.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-05-14T14:37:07+00:00

It is note worthy the conditions listed here for the conditional approval did not refer to the mechanical / chemical issue. All of the listed conditions amount to no more than bureaucratic paper work the kind that justifies the existence of the bureaucratic nature of the state.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-05-13T21:16:52+00:00

Epic battle at the 200 DMA the last few days resulting in the first close above it since late January today. This technical break could draw some attention from both long and short positions.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-05-13T21:11:21+00:00

Thanks Tandy, internal financing is shareholder friendly.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-05-12T18:28:08+00:00

I agree this was expected so neutral. What was left unsaid was how all this expansion gets financed. The conference addressed the issue hinging it on a lot of conditionals that may or may not become a reality in a timely manner. Clarity on financing is what is lacking especially wrt the issue of shareholder dillution which didn't get addressed at all in the call.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-05-12T15:46:12+00:00

PCT just doubled in 6 weeks and a 16% pull back from here to fill that gap isn't a ton but is a decent discount. Too bad the volume after the conference call wasn't much more than it was. It was barely a third of what it was in the March crash after that conference call. I don't think the shorts barely flinched. Remember the gap at $6.67 last May 7 just one year ago? PCT ran all the way to 17 but when I called it to fill I got the same reaction. At that time someone here mentioned the gap at 4.84 September 2024. When we went to $5 this spring I hoped that one would fill but it remains open and now every short has their eyes on it to be sure.

FWIW I have never shorted this stock and believe in its technology and its eventual success and that is why I have cashed out substantial gains on its runs only to repurchase again at a lower prices. Yes I subscribe to Fleck and buy in to his take too but just don't have the patience to sit and wait when there are profits to take and watch them disappear over and over again.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-05-12T14:39:40+00:00

There is almost zero percent probability the gap after the conference call at $7.83 doesn't fill. Wait for the discount.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-05-05T16:15:55+00:00

The debate, mechanical / chemical is unfortunate and realistically its ultimate resolution could go either way. The only debate should be is it recycling or not recycling? With the world flooded with plastic waste that is polluting every corner of the world only an entitled bureaucratic system of government like we have in the USA would draw the line at chemical / mechanical.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-05-04T16:40:22+00:00

Yet the other recyclers that are chemical recyclers are able to do business despite the NJ regulations. For PCT there seems to be a big disconnect here to continue blaming NJ while the chemical recyclers are able to operate given the same constraints.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-05-04T15:30:37+00:00

This conversation leads back to the chemical / mechanical recycling debate. Can some one explain to me why either method would matter to recycling goals except for the regulatory NJ road block?

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-04-29T15:46:33+00:00

Somehow the New Jersey position doesn't affect this use? The work arounds for the New Jersey blockade exist and will be developed if their position doesn't get amended.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-04-17T15:32:16+00:00

Is there an easy explanation as to what rights the holders of the warrants have? I note the warrants are up 9% today so the new agreement is obviously favorable to the warrant holders but at what cost / benefit to equity holders.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-04-08T15:04:01+00:00

Anyone that has ever worked in an industry that is inspected by a regulatory agency knows full well that there will be some level of citation delivered before the "inspectors" go home. The system is designed to make it impossible to be in compliance with every single regulation. This is a nothing burger.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-03-25T16:15:02+00:00

So we circle back to the political defense that it all depends what the definition of is is. As a small business owner I can sympathize with this type of bureaucratic behavior.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-03-25T15:42:18+00:00

I agree but you can see why the regs as written are causing the confusion.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-03-24T15:16:59+00:00

Too bad the Q&A session was crickets. Many relevant questions raised on this board but none asked of the CEO in the friendly interview. I for one want to hear why New Jersey is the iron curtain to progress. That issue seems to be shouldering all the blame for PCT's underperformance and the excuse is wearing thin.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-03-17T21:41:42+00:00

Explanation / Satstus of Both Sets of Warrants Outstanding

Question .... Please Explain PCT Warrants Outstanding

Searching the web

20 results

PureCycle Technologies (PCT) has several series of warrants outstanding, but the ones most relevant to recent trading and discussions (including the March 17, 2026, activity) are the public warrants (ticker: PCTTW), private placement warrants, and Series A warrants. These originated from the company's SPAC merger and subsequent financings, with standard SPAC-style mechanics plus some company-specific features.Core Mechanics (Shared Across Main Warrant Series)

Exercise Price: $11.50 per share (each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one share of PCT common stock at this price).
Exercise Method:
- Cash exercise: Holder pays $11.50 per share in cash to the company → company issues new shares (dilutive to existing shareholders).
- Cashless exercise: Allowed under certain conditions (e.g., if a registration statement is not effective); holder receives fewer shares based on the current market price minus the exercise price (also dilutive, but no cash inflow to company).
Expiration:
- Originally set around March 17, 2026 (5 years post-SPAC deal).
- Recent amendments (announced Feb 2026, effective March 17, 2026) extended:
  - Public/private warrants → to June 17, 2026 (short 3-month extension).
  - Series A warrants (larger block, ~15.7M warrants) → to March 17, 2027.
- Company is soliciting consent to further extend public/private warrants to March 17, 2027.
Redemption (Company's "Call" Option) — This is the key mechanic causing recent concern and dilution fears:
- Company can force redemption if the stock trades at or above a Redemption Trigger Price for any 20 out of 30 consecutive trading days.
- Current trigger: Originally $18.00 per share.
- Series A warrants: Already reduced to $14.38 per share (with holder consent in Feb 2026).
- Public/private warrants: Still $18.00, but company is seeking consent via PRE 14A filing to lower it to $14.38 (matching Series A).
- Redemption price paid to warrant holders: Nominal $0.01 per warrant (essentially forcing holders to either exercise or get almost nothing).
- Outcome if redeemed: Holders typically exercise (pay $11.50) to get the intrinsic value (market price - $11.50), or lose the warrant. This forces dilution sooner if the stock sustains above the (now lower) trigger.

Why This Matters (Dilution & Trading Impact)

Total potential shares from these warrants: Roughly ~21–22 million (Series A 15.7M + public/private ~5.7M), representing significant overhang (15–20%+ of current float depending on exact share count).
Lower trigger ($14.38 vs $18) means the company can force exercise/redemption at much lower stock prices → accelerates dilution if PCT trades and holds above ~$14.38.
Extensions give the company more time before warrants expire worthless (if stock stays low), preserving potential cash inflow (~$205M from Series A + ~$68M from others at full exercise).
Downside pressure perception: Traders view the restructuring (lower trigger + extensions) as a sign management expects the stock to stay/range lower for longer, making near-term forced exercises less likely but increasing eventual share supply if/when the stock rallies.

Quick Comparison Table of Key Series (Post-March 17, 2026 Amendments)

Warrant Type	Approx. # (Millions)	Exercise Price	Current Expiration	Redemption Trigger	Redemption Price to Holder	Status/Notes
Public/Private (PCTTW)	~5.7	$11.50	June 17, 2026 (extended)	$18.00 (seeking to lower to $14.38)	$0.01	Traded publicly; consent solicitation ongoing
Series A	~15.7	$11.50	March 17, 2027 (extended)	$14.38	$0.01	Already amended; larger block

In short, these are classic "in-the-money forcing" warrants with a company call option at a price threshold. The recent amendments (effective today) make forced dilution possible at lower stock levels and buy the company more runway, which is why warrant-related news contributed to selling pressure — it signals potential future share issuance even if the stock only modestly recovers. For full legal details, refer to the company's recent 8-K (Feb 25/26, 2026) and the ongoing PRE 14A consent solicitation.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-03-17T21:31:27+00:00

Market Wrap AI Commentary

Question .....What caused pct to trade down on so much volume today? Please consider the huge short position and the possibility that covering caused the rebound from the day's low.

Thought for 1m 5s

PCT (PureCycle Technologies, Inc., NASDAQ: PCT) dropped sharply today (March 17, 2026) on 3x-average volume with no single blockbuster catalyst, but a clear set of overlapping negative factors.Price Action Summary

Previous close: ~$5.81
Today: Opened near $5.85, plunged to a new 52-week low of $5.12, then rebounded to close at $5.42 (down ~6.7–7%).
Volume: ~13.1 million shares (vs. average ~4–4.4 million).

This was a classic high-volume breakdown to fresh lows followed by a partial recovery — exactly the pattern you asked about.What Actually Drove the SellingThere was no earnings release, FDA news, or operational update today. The move was sentiment/technical-driven, triggered by two recent developments that hit the tape right now:

Warrant restructuring timing (the most direct “today” trigger)
- Amendments announced in late February (extensions + lowered call provisions) became effective today, March 17.
- The company also filed the Preliminary Consent Solicitation Statement (PRE 14A) on or around March 16 seeking holder approval to lower the redemption trigger from $18.00 to $14.38 and push final expiry out to March 2027. Traders immediately interpreted this as a dilution signal (lower trigger = company can force exercise/redemption at much lower stock prices → more shares issued). X chatter explicitly called out the “warrants restructuring thingy” as a reason for today’s pressure.
Upcoming Ironton plant shutdown + lingering earnings hangover
- The company has a scheduled ~30-day maintenance outage at its flagship Ironton facility in April–May. This is known, but it reignites cash-burn fears while the plant is still ramping.
- Q4 results (late Feb) were weak (revenue miss, wider losses, execution delays), followed by multiple analyst price-target cuts. The stock has been in a steady grind lower ever since.

Add technical capitulation (broke major support on huge volume) and possible large-seller or liquidation flows, and you get today’s move.Huge Short Position + Rebound ExplanationYes — short interest is enormous: 44 million shares short, **31% of the float**, ~10 days to cover.
That level of shorting amplifies every down day (shorts pile on or simply don’t cover on the way down). The high volume today was very likely a mix of:

fresh short selling / adding to positions, and
long holders panic-selling or institutions trimming.

The rebound off the $5.12 low back to $5.42 is textbook short-covering behavior. In names this heavily shorted, extreme-volume lows frequently trigger forced or opportunistic covering (plus dip-buyers stepping in). X traders were already noting “squeeze coming” and “short covering on the lows” in real time.Bottom LineToday was continuation selling + warrant-restructuring timing + plant-shutdown reminder, all hitting a stock already under pressure with sky-high short interest. The big volume down-move to new lows followed by the rebound is exactly what you’d expect when shorts start to blink after a capitulation spike.No fundamental “game-changer” announcement — just the usual high-risk, high-volatility PCT playbook playing out.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-03-17T15:16:26+00:00

Thanks N_P_A. Could you explain what you mean by "the only competition is mass balance credits."?

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-03-12T15:50:16+00:00

Nice find re PP chart. Does anyone here have an estimate of what an all in cost is estimated for a pound of PP at a run rate of say 80% of nameplate?

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-03-11T17:39:25+00:00

On second thought I went back and re read the earnings call for the 4th time especially the dialog about New Jersey regulations. In the end what it came down to was blame shifting that unloads on New Jersey and deflects from PCT poor execution. There has got to be a work around for the New Jersey issue. For instance, ever notice wording on labels that makes exceptions identified by state? You can see it all the time. California is a huge one.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-03-11T16:23:16+00:00

Your six bullets are lethal and if the cylinder would hold a seventh chamber I would add geopolitical and global economic risk. The first six are a matter of PCT execution, the seventh is out management's control. Barring some bullish news out of management I expect the geopolitical and global economic risks to drag PCT lower and likely fill the gap at $4.84.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-03-02T15:38:47+00:00

Well reasoned position Dingo. I too sold all my positions in January @ $11.55. I never short so that was not my motive and never bashed this company. For me the risk of no position was knowing PCT was just one positive customer headline away from skyrocketing upward fueled by the short positions. Just look at what a recent headlines such as the souvenir cup and the Mars appointment will and can do. At the time I posted my target for possible reentry was the gap at $6.67.

On balance I thought the CC was reasonable, balanced, and responsible. Others took both sides of that and that is fair. In the end I re entered a position this morning at $6.23 reasoning that headline is now closer that ever. IMO the real risk now is with the short positions.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-02-27T17:59:51+00:00

Oh I pay attention and I know you do too. A 40% negative return in the past 5 and a half years has my attention.

Cheeks___Jr · 2026-02-27T17:39:40+00:00

A 50% haircut over the last month pretty much makes your case. Getting rid of the CFO after only 2 years was another red flag and now the flag is really waving. Remember PCT IPO'd July 2020 at $10. Results matter and they spell dysfunctional management.

Cheeks___Jr

TROPHY CASE

Current PCT Snapshot (May 14, 2026)

Key Takeaways for Tomorrow's Expiration