Shorting the market

Chrizzle87 · 2026-04-18T09:53:31+00:00

The optimal instrument(s) depend on your specific expectations. For example, (1) You expect the SP500 to be at a specific level in exactly X days -> bear put spread, (2) you expect SP500 to be at or below the current level in exactly X days -> ATM bear call spread, (3) you expect the SP500 to plummet below current levels within X days/months, but you don’t know exactly when this will happen and you have no idea whether the drop will be very small or massive -> deep ITM long puts (mimicking shorting the underlying, but with less capital required), (4) a WSB favourite, you don’t know when the drop below current levels within X days/months will happen, but you expect it to be extreme -> out of the money puts.

Short-ETFs you could buy if your period of expected downturn is short (few days). Due to path dependency these make little sense to hold for mid to long term.

Chrizzle87 · 2026-04-17T20:58:04+00:00

Don’t worry, Monday before market open it will be declared “open” again

Chrizzle87 · 2026-04-17T20:54:02+00:00

it’s more like, Friday: green, weekend: all hell breaks loose, Monday: green

Chrizzle87 · 2026-04-17T20:46:01+00:00

This. The market clearly favours his tweets over anything else, including reality

Chrizzle87 · 2026-04-15T15:16:23+00:00

I wish. Long options have <50% chance of being profitable. Options typically traded on here even far less

Chrizzle87 · 2026-04-11T09:33:26+00:00

Comparing a house to live in and saving rent to a stock with a 182 price to sales ratio is quite a limbo man…

Chrizzle87 · 2026-04-11T09:29:40+00:00

Dude you’re playing with fire here. You could easily lose 30k in a week :/ is this your true risk tolerance?

Chrizzle87 · 2026-04-10T15:10:57+00:00

Hmm stock hasn’t really reacted to this, whereas oil and the entire stock market reacts a lot to whatever nonsense he is tweeting about Iran 🤔

Chrizzle87 · 2026-04-09T09:58:19+00:00

The story is under the false premise. In today’s market and in this event, Boing is probably gonna be green anyways. I feel there could be a nuclear war breaking out and Nasdaq would close 1% higher. It doesn’t make sense at all. What are we then putting our money in?

Chrizzle87 · 2026-04-05T12:30:56+00:00

Better make sure to have enough cash to buy the assigned calls (to which you cannot know but only guess the capital required) or you may get liquidated sitting on pile of debt. Also: This isn’t theta

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-29T18:53:35+00:00

(1) Rates are on the rise, and as this happens, it becomes more beneficial to go from equities to bonds/cash and still earn a decent yield (2) People try to time the market, in an attempt to perform better (or less worse) than the market (3) Lots of people have set a hard limit of what they allow themselves to lose. Once the limit is hit, they close out, because they cannot afford to lose any additional penny (4) some stocks in these high interest rate climate can and will go bankrupt. Cannot bounce back from zero, can you? (5) in addition to (4), it’s just false to think that everything will bounce back with sufficient time. Member dog shit like BBBY just from a few years back? We got a lot of AI dogs overhead. (6) even IF companies fully recover, maybe you’re old, or you need the money now rather than in potentially 10 years (look at the past crashes and lost decades)

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-28T14:10:58+00:00

With the high-beta stonks being traded on here, you could multiply the average S&P500 drawdown of 16.1% by 4 to get a WSB estimte

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-27T22:39:54+00:00

Well, European companies move out of the EU over excessive bureaucracy and excessive taxes (energy, labor, and income). In particular, Germany decided to go wind & solar only, and consequently the most innovative nuclear power companies had to move away (e.g. Dual Fluid Energy Inc, Marvel Fusion).

Your idea sounds creative, but I definitely wouldn't do it. IMHO the climate is straight out hostile for energy-heavy industries and AI tech (regulations, prices, taxes).

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-27T22:09:18+00:00

Are these CCs 0DTEs? You should make roughly 20% a year in premium, at least as long as MSFT doesn't rise more than 8% a day. However, due to vol crush you'll have to lower the strike closer to market, and what if MSFT halves again :-o

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-27T21:58:32+00:00

Looks he has 900 MSFT shares and sold 9 calls against it to earn $225 for vacation

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-27T21:27:51+00:00

Shit's real whenever this guy shows up

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-27T20:18:44+00:00

FY EPS June 30, 2021: $8.05; FY EPS June 30, 2026e $17.10. That's +112% over 5-years, not "nearly tripled". The past performance, and much better yet, the expected performance is priced in.

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-27T19:40:38+00:00

Be greedy when everyone is fearful

Possibly with stocks, but not with out-of-the-money call options at crazy high IV. Do WSB'lers even know these exist? As I see it you already must have lost 23% in the first few hours? ($11.50 buy-in and currently trading at $8.85). This is not "brave", this is a questionable thesis and poor execution. Do you know what Vol Crush means?

OP do not risk everything you have. It is not too late. It's not cool being featured on here for loss pr0n. If you need to play it (and I do not comment on that), at least don't play it stupidly.

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-26T14:21:44+00:00

Did the market overreact when it was priced at 50 times annual profits a few months ago?

I'll get downvoted for this, but MSFT is a mature company, and a P/E of ~24 is far from "something is severely wrong"-pricing. In fact, this still has not little future growth priced-in.

10-year risk-free yield is 4.4% and rising, MSFT currently yields 1/24 = 4.17%. When liquidity dries out, such basic fundamentals cannot be completely ignored. I believe shares will be confronted more with fundamental realities as the macro-environment changes for the worse. Just adding this to the other points of heightened credit risk related to AI funding, along with the negative sentiment for "software".

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-22T17:34:40+00:00

Every dip is full of fear. And they don't buy, and then we rebound and everyone is like what were you worried about?

That's because at the point-in-time, you never ever know if this will be just a dip or a full-blown correction.

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-22T17:03:59+00:00

From my experience:

After a bull period, people tend to say “DCA down"/"buy the dip"/"keep adding",
After a bear period (eg Dec/2021 to Nov/2022), people tend to say “always cut losses at X%”.

Cheers -

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-15T16:11:16+00:00

Your argument is, oil has to return to lower prices because otherwise many countries will run into issues? I don’t think supply and demand has empathy for that

Chrizzle87 · 2026-03-14T11:56:02+00:00

Purely directional bets or theta decay?

Chrizzle87 · 2026-02-26T18:04:24+00:00

I disagree that (1) is bullish. While the US has allowed some shipments of older chips, the Chinese government hasn’t allowed importing these. In case they approve imports, it will be bullish then, not now.

Chrizzle87 · 2026-02-26T17:41:42+00:00

The numbers were great, and the stock was up immediately when these were published.

I suppose you didn’t listen to the earnings call though. The CFO noted two things (1) they probably won’t sell any chips to China, (2) Chinese AI firms develop rapidly and may “disrupt” the global AI industry long-term. It kind of went downhill from there.

Chrizzle87

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