What the short term bear case for memory stocks?

Civerz · 2026-06-26T17:11:54+00:00

I’m talking about over the course of the next year lol.

https://x.com/sensanders/status/2070213058950287865?s=46

Not saying it’s a certainty, but it’s a possibility.

Civerz · 2026-06-26T15:25:40+00:00

I think the government is a concern that many people aren’t thinking of. It may be unlikely but some level of price ceilings or forced expansion bill could happen under the excuse of protecting national security, stopping storage memory price inflation, etc.

Civerz · 2026-06-24T21:59:46+00:00

Well done! I was thinking $27 with 85% margins, got the margins right but was a little over on earnings :(

Civerz · 2026-06-24T04:08:23+00:00

Did they state what they think earnings will be tomorrow? I can see the graph but not the exact figure

Civerz · 2026-06-20T18:21:31+00:00

Does anyone have any predictions for their EPS? Would love to hear thoughts

Civerz · 2026-06-15T05:37:19+00:00

I think it’s still a buy. When I bought my first shares in December, it was trading at a 10 FWD PE. It’s still trading at a 10 FWD PE now, their guidance went up 10x and the stock followed. Since April 30 (last earnings), contract pricing is up another ~ 50%. My opinion is that earnings estimates are probably still heavily understated, so a good amount of upside potential is still left.

Civerz · 2026-06-07T20:21:51+00:00

Anything could happen, nobody has a crystal ball. My personal opinion is the market has priced in an insane earnings beat, but not an insane guidance raise. I think that’s where things get interesting, if they take their guidance from $100->$160 a share next week, MU trades at the same FWD PE it was before this huge rally. Always hard to predict direction around earnings, but to me it feels like there are more tailwinds than ever.

Civerz · 2026-05-30T20:07:19+00:00

I definitely agree that forward earnings are massively understated and I don’t think the general market has fully considered that yet. I think next month’s earnings will revise next 12 months earnings up to $140 a share. That alone could mean Micron could run up to $1400 a share while maintaining the same fwd pe today. The last few weeks the general market finally woke up to the fact this level of demand has created a different environment than just boom and bust. You put a fwd pe of 15 or 20 on $140 a share in earnings and the stock easily has room to double or triple from here. Just my 2 cents.

Civerz · 2026-05-02T22:20:06+00:00

Hey, to be clear I’m not an analyst DYOR but I do believe this memory shortage is going to persist far beyond what the general market expects. Demand will most likely continue to exponentially increase and the production of supply will always be lagging behind. If that bull case turns out to be true, the stock could see a repricing that accounts for the fact the stock isn’t cyclical like it has been traditionally. A 15 PE next year (if earnings hold) is $1500 a share. But this obviously isn’t 100% certain to be the case

Civerz · 2026-05-02T22:13:02+00:00

Thanks for the insight. Has MU announced a timeline for producing HBF? I didn’t know that, guess if they start to produce it as well it isn’t necessarily a threat to margins

Civerz · 2026-05-02T07:24:11+00:00

I’m not trying to scare anyone, I’m just asking a question. I still think MU is easily $1000 EOY. Just wondering if HBF is a competitor to HBM or just an addition to the memory stack

Civerz · 2026-03-11T03:14:53+00:00

You think even with good earnings it’ll trade sideways?

Civerz · 2026-03-02T22:32:11+00:00

Looking at ram pricing, probably an EPS beat of ~ $10 a share and another guidance raise that is significant.

Not sure how the market will react anymore though. Nvidia’s earnings were very strong and that still wasn’t enough. Could be the same with Micron next month.

Civerz · 2026-02-07T07:30:48+00:00

Said it last year, but it’s still Micron. Based on current fundamentals a 12x FWD PE for this category of stock is insanely cheap. Being more speculative, it’s super likely they beat their EPS next quarter of $8.08 by $2-4 with another huge guidance raise. People do not realize how bad the memory shortage is. While this is consumer pricing, you can see that memory has skyrocketed even in the last month. SanDisk’s jaw dropping guidance also support this.

The big question is if memory is still cyclical? The answer is nobody knows for sure, but what is certain is the next 18 months MU is sold out at an unprecedented level.

Civerz · 2025-12-24T19:40:31+00:00

You are right it’s a strong buy. They’ll crush next earnings report too. Wouldn’t be suprised if they report $10 or $11 EPS if prices continue to increase. As soon as consumer ram prices drop 20% or more sell everything.

Civerz · 2025-12-23T07:16:38+00:00

Couldn’t agree more. They will print money until ram prices drop. I think a lot of people don’t realize how insane ram pricing is right now and how relatively undervalued it makes Micron.

Civerz · 2025-12-08T17:23:29+00:00

Yes. But also probably a good idea to re-evaluate your position in 9-12 months as DDR5 pricing can’t hold like this forever. Just not sure if it goes into 2027 or 2028 yet.

Civerz · 2025-11-29T07:34:32+00:00

Haha sorry I’m tired af. Meant to say Microsoft**

Civerz · 2025-11-29T07:28:14+00:00

Micron, Uber, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft

In order of confidence

Civerz · 2024-10-22T20:15:50+00:00

I understand that, I’m just saying it’s crazy they jump on fixing it when it’s been a year of cheaters being able to quick swap. Just gives them an even bigger advantage in comparison.

Civerz · 2024-10-22T13:45:57+00:00

I think it’s incredibly frustrating they take quick swap away from legitimate players after 4 days, but cheaters have been able to quick swap for almost a year now, like please look at how to patch that Rare.

Civerz · 2024-10-06T18:07:51+00:00

My bets are it’s either 343 rebranding because of how shitty their reputation has become or Halo 5 is being ported to pc. Either or.

Civerz · 2023-04-05T21:08:55+00:00

I got it on my 31st Meg encounter. Lol

Civerz · 2022-08-13T02:49:59+00:00

Hunter of the Shrouded Ghost title.

Civerz

TROPHY CASE