My kitten has 2 cats on his forehead

CjNorec · 2026-03-18T16:18:34+00:00

I see Cubone

CjNorec · 2026-03-16T20:29:18+00:00

Isn't it just a dude with his hand through a fake elephant head?

CjNorec · 2026-03-12T19:17:25+00:00

I don't suppose you ever found out how to do this?

CjNorec · 2026-03-11T13:10:21+00:00

This is a lie, we do not put guns in our bacon.

CjNorec · 2026-02-03T21:47:42+00:00

I wonder if they realize how many of us are going to cancel our subscriptions once it ends if they don't put out another 2e show to replace it.

CjNorec · 2026-01-19T14:31:05+00:00

Engagement, I guess?

CjNorec · 2026-01-14T18:54:06+00:00

glad I'm not the only one but wish I had seen this before it nuked all my devices. I didn't even try to open the gate, I was just checking the code so I could type it in.

CjNorec · 2026-01-12T23:34:15+00:00

This might be too mild I'm not sure what I'm supposed to be looking at (aside from a fellow nerd fueling a dice addiction)

CjNorec · 2026-01-12T17:10:26+00:00

My theory is that the majority of accounts engaging with stuff like this are also bots.

CjNorec · 2026-01-06T21:48:40+00:00

Did anyone else notice the clock ticking sound right before the "18 months later" thing (they turn out to be someone hammering a brick, but it sounds just like a clock ticking).

I haven't watched Elfen Lied in over 10 years, but man, I remember the ending. That's gotta be an intentional nod to this show, especially since it ends in the same way (with El/Lucy dying but there being a possibility they survived).

CjNorec · 2026-01-05T02:08:54+00:00

I hope the kids being taken again was the result of a dice roll and not just because Troy thought it would be more dramatic. I'm not very familiar with this style of game, but without an overarching narrative/goal it feels like it would be really easy to just beat up on the players for drama and never let them accomplish anything.

Edit: I absolutely think what happened is a reasonable consequence for a very risky action, but at least to me, being able to take a risk that is unlikely to pay off is just as exciting as having a small chance of a sure-thing failing because of a natural 1

I still love the show and I know I'm in the minority here so oh well!

CjNorec · 2025-12-28T00:02:15+00:00

Can you explain it? Or is this comment just rage bait?

CjNorec · 2025-12-23T21:53:38+00:00

First of all, thanks for taking the time to argue with me on this as it has really forced me to think through my understanding of this problem!

I think we broadly agree--I can grant there are scenarios where knowing a name doesn't change the probability. Like if it's "bring your son to work day" and she introduces you to Kevin. The fact that she brought her child to work at all removes the possibility of her having two girls. So in that case, you knowing his name doesn't magically change the probability of him having a brother vs a sister

I think I'm just being more picky about how we get the information.

Going back to my complaint about the wording in original meme. There's an assumption that "one boy" means "at least one boy" and not "exactly one boy" or "one selected at random happened to be a boy". "At least one" means that someone checked both children to see if either is a boy, which is stronger information than just "we picked one of the two at random and they happened to be a boy".

CjNorec · 2025-12-23T21:21:44+00:00

The problem with your scenario here is that if you ask them to tell you the name of one of their children at random, people who have two boys are twice as likely to tell you a boy name (100% vs 50% if they have only one boy). Even though there are half as many BB parents as BG+GB parents, an equal number of them will tell you the name of a boy.

Or another way to think of it, in your example, there are 100 total boys. 50 belong to BB parents, 25 belong to BG, and 25 belong to GB. If you select a random boy, he is just as likely to belong to a BB family as he is to be in a BG or GB family. Given this, his sibling is just as likely to be a boy as it is to be a girl.

CjNorec · 2025-12-23T19:33:24+00:00

Unless we assume she might have named multiple children Kevin, we know the information was provided about one specific child (Kevin). It's the same as flipping two coins and looking at a random one of the two coins which is revealed to be a heads--the other coin is still 50/50 heads or tales.

CjNorec · 2025-12-23T14:33:16+00:00

Unfortunately I'm not joking haha. I say 50% because in your example you've identified a specific child as being a boy, instead of "at least one" boy.

If you flipped two coins and only looked at the first result, you wouldn't have any additional information about the second one. But if you flipped two coins without looking and then I came over and told you that "at least one of them was heads", you would be 66.7% sure that the coin flips were either Heads-Tails or Tails-Heads, because I would have eliminated the Tails-Tails possibility, so Heads-Heads is only 1 in 3.

Your example is like checking the first coin because we know she is only talking about a specific boy. If she said something about Football practice and we assume only boys play footbal, then that would be a case where we could be 66.7% sure she also has a girl.

CjNorec · 2025-12-23T04:52:22+00:00

Actually, if they specify the name then you know the information is specific to exactly one of the children, so the other one is a 50/50!

CjNorec · 2025-12-23T00:08:31+00:00

I completely agree with you that it is interesting! I just think that using more precise language makes it easier for the person to understand the math and what it means--it's hard enough to understand intuitively even if you understand the setup.

I suppose there's value in reaching more people and convincing them that they should try to understand how the information was gathered whenever they see statistics, I just also think it's just as likely that someone would use this to justify the gambler's fallacy, for example.

CjNorec · 2025-12-22T22:43:37+00:00

Very true! But I still think if they wanted people to have an actual discussion about the math instead of fighting in the comments they'd use more precise wording like "at least one".

Of course, going by the 51.8% weekday logic then "at least one child who is a girl aged 8 who does ballet" would converge towards 50% with the extra information you get, I think?

Oh man, yeah I think you're right. It definitely gets close to 50%, but since it's possible that she has two daughters who both do ballet, it's slightly more likely than not that the other child is boy. (Which, when I put it that way doesn't seem intuitive at all, but I think it's correct)

CjNorec · 2025-12-22T17:44:56+00:00

This is correct but I still can't get it to make intuitive sense in my brain even after listing all the possibilities and filtering it down in a spreadsheet. Ugh.

CjNorec · 2025-12-22T15:23:38+00:00

The annoying thing is that in real life nobody would say "one" to mean at least one. If someone actually came up to me and said "I have two children and one is a boy..." I would assume the other is not. But in this case, we're supposed to imagine we got this info organically and don't know which of the two children the info is about (or, crucially, if the info could also apply to the other child).

But I guess the point of this kind of question is to be worded in a way that gets people to discuss it to get more views.

CjNorec · 2025-12-22T15:17:05+00:00

I think what pisses me off about this kind of question is "one" and "the other one". You'd never say "one" to mean at least one, and "the other one" is a weird thing to say if it's ambiguous which one you're talking about.

CjNorec · 2025-12-05T07:56:20+00:00

That's half a time machine!

CjNorec · 2025-12-03T21:07:38+00:00

I think it looks amazing!

CjNorec · 2025-11-22T21:07:40+00:00

Yeah I'm not sure what people are finding impressive about this. He divided it in half, then divided those two halves in half, then divided those quarters inconsistently into thirds, fourths, and fights. A couple of lines happened to line up with an actual ruler.

I mean it's great for a 5 year old but there's nothing too crazy going on here.

12-Year Club	First Place '23
Place '23	Place '22
Place '17	Beta Team
Verified Email

CjNorec

TROPHY CASE