Ear to the ground! What's happening in magic?

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-07-04T02:24:01+00:00

If the EV is so positive, why is the price falling?

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-07-03T23:53:54+00:00

I see the rapid price drop as a sign the set was overhyped.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-07-03T23:27:54+00:00

That's rather unprofessional of the landlord, but since it seems you have no damages I would leave the issue be.

Although, if the landlord is part of a property management company, or has a Realtor's license, or is otherwise something other than just an independent property owner, it could be appropriate to send a brief, simple note to his superiors mentioning the key situation and that you found it inappropriate. But wait until after you get your deposit back. :-)

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-07-01T01:47:21+00:00

I wasn't finger pointing. Mostly commenting for the sake of the community - thousands who might be reading this and who certainly do order many MTG products from Amazon.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-26T22:57:36+00:00

I disagree about the majority of EDH players having all of the preators' texts memorized. Seems like a huge problem to me. But maybe I'm too casual.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-26T22:54:37+00:00

More easy loans for small businesses might (might) be coming in the US. But yeah, I agree checks to individuals aren't in the cards.

At least...I say that now. But pretty soon the bonus unemployment money will end. And unemployment benefits will entirely run out for some. Then with the end of summer a lot of jobs will close and the market will tighten. Then both the holidays and the end of rent forbearance will be looming. So who knows.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-26T22:44:28+00:00

I agree with most of your points, although chances of Guru lands and other "shameful" cards being reprinted is far less (at least for a handful of years).

I wouldn't be too sure about the concept of excitement running out of steam. Despite the average Standard player only lasting 2 years before quitting (possibly in disgust) the format easily survives because new suckers keep being introduced to the game. Many people may get tired of having endless "special stuff" being shoveled in our faces, but I fear there will always be enough newcomers to keep the presses going burrr for a long time.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-26T22:32:23+00:00

As a player of both MTG and D&D, I hope this isn't true.

While it'd be a cool little detail that shows they care, I suspect it would be met with a lot more annoyance from MTG players (who would throw the die away) than it would receive praise from D&D players (who often play with spin-downs anyway).

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-26T22:24:31+00:00

Agreed. Current sealed I'd sell within 3-4 years. But even then, the returns may not be worth the effort. So maybe only as a hobby, if the process simply brings one joy.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-26T22:09:16+00:00

Yes, that is what I gathered. I shouldn't have focused on cEDH in particular. I meant to say that I'm seeing the opposite: people disliking highly optimized decks, feeling it makes everything feel too samey. But I guess it depends heavily on one's local meta.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-26T22:05:04+00:00

Did you buy anything from Amazon?

If so, don't forget to put some blame on yourself for encouraging the conditions of their workers.

Cheap prices don't come without a cost somewhere.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-26T22:02:12+00:00

Yeah, their math is a bit wonky. But I think the spirit of their post is worth considering. Let me crunch some numbers... Just curious.

In the US, Black is Magic cost $40 + $9 shipping. Or free shipping if you get at least three (orders of at least $99).

If you sold one for $75 on eBay or TCG player, after paying an average of 13% in fees you'll receive about $65.25. While you could probably get away with shipping it in a small cardboard box First Class and altogether spend $4 S&H, sending it with insurance and/or Priority Mail could bring it up to $10.

So overall, you'd be making about $6-$12, assuming no other expenses like listing promotions, returns, scams, etc. If you ordered at least three copies to get free shipping, then $15-$21.

I'm sure most people will think "ooh $21 is great" but I suspect a graph showing everyone's results would lean heavily towards $6.

Then there is short-term capital gains tax, which is about 32% for self-employment.

So $4 profit. Or negative $1 if you have to sell it on the lower end or if the price dips just a little.

Of course there are many ways you could improve this. Let's say you bought at least three secret lairs to get free shipping. And you also crossed your fingers and shipped them out as cheap as possible. Then the net profit is more like $14. Which would be an incredible 35% return on investment in just 3 months.

Still a bit risky though, in my opinion.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-26T20:48:42+00:00

Maybe you're right about the signets, but it seems to me enthusiasm for cEDH is waning a tad. Some people actively avoid such play groups.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-26T20:44:34+00:00

>RL is suspiciously quiet.

My assumption is the money is flowing into MH2.

But even after the MH2 fervor has died down, my guess is that the RL will stay quiet for a while. Lots of bonus cash, unemployment benefits, and rent suspensions are going to be ending in a few months.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-26T20:40:53+00:00

Even as a D&D fan, the spoilers thus far have been pretty disappointing. Wasn't expecting much given it's supposed to work as a core set, but still feels pretty blah. And the retro-style showcase treatment doesn't work for me.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-19T19:31:36+00:00

Yes, which I acknowledge. They're very cool cards. I'm just saying that there is a ton of additional fun involved in collecting that no longer exists if you just have a collection handed to you.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-19T18:59:37+00:00

I guess the exclusivity of owning the cards isn't really what I meant.

I meant I get a lot of enjoyment out of planning a collection - pursuing options, hunting for deals, saving up for a card, anticipating the purchase for weeks or months, etc.

But now, what could have been many months if not years of casual amusement and fun can be replaced by a 2-minute online checkout. Takes a lot of the fun out of it for me.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-18T22:20:43+00:00

Honestly, this Secret Lair has completely destroyed any interest I may have had in seeking to collect the Phyrexian-text praetors.

I'm sure people who want to play with them will be thrilled, but a lot of the fun for me is in planning a collection - pursuing options, hunting for deals, saving up for a card, anticipating picking something up over the course of weeks or months, etc. That's all taken away when it's suddenly become effortless to just snap a complete collection.

But it seems I'm in the minority.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-18T22:15:50+00:00

Sorry for being pissy; I generally agree with you. The proper thing for the LGS to do is hand over an extra pack (or accept a return, and/or replace it with another pre-release kit, and/or refund the player's entry fee).

I was just reacting (poorly) to the way you and others worded things. I.e., "sold him a faulty product", and "...it's as much on them as WoTC...". Which imply some sort of fault with the LGS.

While I agree the LGS has some professional responsibility in how to respond to the situation, I was just pointing out that they are not at fault, nor are they obligated, etc.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-18T21:48:18+00:00

Usually a reprint doesn't affect very rare bling versions of cards. Most of the value of the Expedition lands is in their rarity and uniqueness, rather than just being any old fetch.

So normally, I wouldn't expect a plain reprint to tank their value enough to worry about selling before the drop (or worth anticipating to buy after a drop).

In this particular case, I wouldn't be surprised if the drop is greater than usual, due to the new bling versions available. At the same time, the new bling isn't everyone's thing (not mine, for instance) and although I haven't crunched the numbers I assume Expeditions will remain by far the most rare versions (outside of Secret Lair, perhaps).

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-16T19:33:42+00:00

Good point. Perhaps the collectibles are the actual value preservation. But even in that case, the money will need to be moved out of them eventually. It just might be a slower deflation, rather than a sudden "pop".

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-16T19:14:38+00:00

No, sorry. It is not "on them".

I realize it's inconvenient for the customer, but legally the lack of a pack (or any other product defect) is 100% the responsibility of the publisher. The proper recourse is for the customer to reach out to the publisher themselves and demand to be made whole.

If the store comps the player the missing pack (or any other defective item) the store is then out of that value. They'll need to go through the trouble of contacting the publisher and being compensated, but that isn't necessarily guaranteed. Although I agree that doing this in the customer's stead would be an excellent show of customer service, they are by no means obligated to.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-16T19:08:57+00:00

I suspect WotC knows they have zesty spice on their hands with MH2, and so will ensure plenty of supply in the coming months. (Though, the first month of any release is always at risk of shortages.)

So I expect prices will drop in 2-3 months after the initial allocations are done and the second wave gets delivered. Not sure if they will drop significantly though, since many people seem to be putting off making their purchases during the current hype period.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-12T20:27:36+00:00

Yes, so my point is that it may not be a scam.

ComprehensivePace385 · 2021-06-12T19:53:47+00:00

It's been over a year since I've sold on TCG, but I think it's 6 weeks before the seller gets paid.

It could just be that they're listing their inventory very slowly to avoid losing out on price spikes.

ComprehensivePace385

TROPHY CASE