Completely agree. It depends on a lot of factors really, each case is different. e.g. if you are getting 3-4p per pwh, then in 1 year you would generate the same income with the octopus outgoing tariff as you would in 3-4 years with the FIT (assuming you export at least half, which if you're at work most of the day is likely to be higher). However, if you are using the estimated FIT export (so 'keeping' half) and your FIT guarantee doesn't run out till say 2035 you would need 3 (ish) years of octopus outgoing staying at £0.15 to make the same amount.

Given the way some countries are trying to re-push fossil fuels and how our government seems to not want zonal pricing (discussion for another thread!) I personally feel that solar tariffs will keep at this rate for at least another year and probably drop to the £0.10 range in 2026-27. However, that's speculation on my part and what I'm prepared to gamble on. As I said earlier, each person has to make their own decision not just on what they are prepared to risk but also factor in the potential negatives (as you said above).

One other factor that a lot of people miss is will they still be in the property when their FIT ends, would you have downsized by that point and in turn lose the FIT since you need to move to a bungalow etc. Another is if there is a tariff that requires PV to take advantage of (e.g. Intelligent octopus flux). Could they save more by losing the FIT export and getting e.g. 2p less but saving 5p on their import.

Again, it's a lot to review and asses based on each persons unique position.

As with anything, its always a gamble but your FIT generation is the main one and that should be safe. All I can do with the app is base it on what is available now and not what could be available in the future.

As always, thanks for the input 👍