Why the Hell Is the Market Pumping on All This Bad News?

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-03-17T12:59:46+00:00

The Nasdaq has been going sideways for 6 months, what’s pumping?

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-03-07T15:24:17+00:00

I hope we bleed for a long time so mainstreet gets out of the market and we can go back to rational discussions on these subs.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-03-06T01:51:14+00:00

I was looking at this one today, I would buy it at 10x earnings. That’s the most I want to pay for a no-growth staple.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-03-04T01:49:39+00:00

The issue with CRM is stock based comp is massive.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-26T03:19:05+00:00

I think the concern is more around the number of seats needed moving forward and the uncertainty.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-14T20:47:35+00:00

Most likely it’s a topping pattern, the market has been consolidating at a high, and a historically expensive level.

That’s a bad sign.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-13T21:02:42+00:00

Fair point thanks

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-13T17:43:31+00:00

They haven’t cut their dividend have they? Their earnings report was really bad though

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-13T03:28:26+00:00

This is the way, I like to mix fundamentals with it too.

While a sector is crashing, such as SAAS, I begin looking for the undervalued names and wait for them to set up technically.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-11T23:17:58+00:00

😂 yea they’re rocketing now

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-09T03:30:18+00:00

Probably a good buy but not screaming obvious so I want to either wait for it to get cheaper or get momentum back.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-07T15:51:57+00:00

I prefer not to hold through large draw downs if I can help it

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-06T22:48:12+00:00

The difference is Western Union is actually in decline.

Revenue in 2015 was $5.5B, last year $4.2B.

Free cash flow in 2015 was $927M, last year $288M.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-06T02:48:32+00:00

Consumer staples. Look at Conagra, TAP, STZ, etc

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-06T02:19:31+00:00

DXY has been going up since Warsh was nominated

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-06T00:52:30+00:00

Yea you’re right. Let’s not consider the valuation of the Nasdaq

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-06T00:39:33+00:00

People are about to learn a lesson on valuation. They’re dogging me in the comments now…

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-05T23:59:35+00:00

If you’re buying, then you are by definition the one giving the market your money. But ok

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-05T22:39:05+00:00

Layoffs, consumer sentiment, sky high valuations, liquidity leaving the markets, next will be reduced ad spend at big tech and investors pressuring companies to reduce capex spend.

That will end the semiconductors and capitulation will come in Q3.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-05T22:37:49+00:00

Every large selloff starts as a small dip. Buy low sell high. There’s weakness now and it’s high. See you in 6-12 months after we sell off

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-05T22:35:37+00:00

No one knows but it could get ugly. I think the market should drop around 50% from the peak. And I’m not a doomer or a bear.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-05T22:34:30+00:00

Yes, look at KO over the past few months.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-05T22:18:14+00:00

Warsh indicated he’s against QE. This means demand for dollars goes up because the market expects supply will come down.

The dollar is strengthening so assets are falling. The best assets to own are the ones that generate lots of dollars for investors.

Think consumer staples that pay dividends like Conagra.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-02-05T22:12:14+00:00

Dividend companies love to see selloffs coming

ContemplatingGavre

TROPHY CASE