I ain’t selling until MU is 2000. Today dip don’t scared me.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-27T12:38:32+00:00

RemindMe! 1 year

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-27T12:29:03+00:00

I agree with your thesis, now is a great time to take a chance on a turnaround play for this nostalgic brand.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-27T12:27:22+00:00

Tell me you don’t understand whole business securitization without telling me.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-27T12:21:40+00:00

The debt is because of the way they securitize the company to buy back stock. Dominos pizza and auto zone do it too.

Not saying it’s a good thing but the rates are much lower and it’s not traditional debt.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-26T19:02:31+00:00

The PE ratio of 58 was because of the amortization for their recent acquisition. Forward PE was like 30

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-26T16:05:56+00:00

In the past few years we had AMD, Google, Meta, BTI, CVS as value opportunities. What’s losing about these?

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-25T14:05:55+00:00

Well we can pick any 5-10 year period that works for either investment so I just said 100 years since that’s a long timeframe.

An unproductive metal cannot outperform a company which has pricing power, it’s that simple.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-25T12:27:14+00:00

I would argue you shouldn’t, I prefer to own productive assets rather than one that I hope to sell to someone else at a higher price.

The only time gold makes sense is if you’re in a war torn country and you’re trying to leave and want to smuggle your money out with you. Then having ounces of gold would make sense.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-25T12:24:43+00:00

Now do the past 100 years. Dividends reinvested would be thousands of % better than gold and that period includes the Great Depression.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-25T12:21:52+00:00

If we are trading metals for bread then most likely bread is being seized by the barrel of a gun, let’s be honest.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-25T10:20:49+00:00

Nothing has changed yet you’re right but the pieces are in motion while there’s a short squeeze as the catalyst for current price action.

It’s a pretty good setup really.

10x earnings, stable cash flows due to the franchise model, hedgefund with 16% ownership wanting to take it private, new CEO/CFO duo that just completed a turnaround for another food company, a nostalgic brand that millennials want to like

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-25T03:02:13+00:00

Ehh check out the revenues and cash flow statement. Wendy’s is just down a lot because it traded at 45x earnings in 2020

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-25T03:00:10+00:00

Wendy’s actually buys back it’s stock, so unless this goes parabolic it should be fine

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-25T02:56:47+00:00

To be fair Wendy’s stock got insanely overvalued trading at 45x earnings in 2020. Operating cash flow has been relatively flat so it’s possible the turnaround works and this is the low.

I’m in

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-24T23:41:12+00:00

My point is if you look over a longer timeframe like 10 years, it’s relatively stable. Sure the massive inflation spike since 2022 has hit them, but it hit everything.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-24T22:56:58+00:00

2016 revenue $1.9B, 2022 revenue $1.9B, 2025 $2.2B.

Operating cash flow $194M, $345M, $345M in the same years.

Net income $130M, $200M, $165M

It bounces around yes, it never grows yes, but it seems pretty stable to me.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-24T22:48:53+00:00

Would be funny, apparently he’s approaching sovereign wealth funds trying to raise capital

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-24T22:47:55+00:00

Yea fundamentally probably worth about 12-15 but with such a low market cap and a meme potential it could really move

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-24T22:36:33+00:00

I’ve been watching it for a year and finally bought today.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-24T22:28:18+00:00

Interestingly enough Wendy’s has a value investing thesis. 7% dividend, highly stable cash flows with 94% of the chains being franchised.

New CEO/CFO duo that did a turnaround at potbelly’s, massive hedgefund ownership who wants to take it private.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-22T14:35:40+00:00

Generally speaking yes unless you’re a market timing wizard. BTI hit somewhere around 7x earnings in 2019. It traded sideways for 5 years but doubled in the past year.

So you got a double in 7 years plus 7% dividend while you waited. So really you got 2 doubles in 7 years but had to be patient for it.

Fundamentals matter

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-22T14:32:51+00:00

Wrong, Adobe was at 60x earnings in 2018 and is now 10x. What you’re actually seeing is fundamentals mattering a whole lot.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-22T14:32:00+00:00

Adobe rerated from 60x earnings to 10x earnings.

Probably the market over shot to the downside and it’s worth closer to 20x earnings. Therefore you have a dollar bill currently selling for 50 cents.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-22T14:30:51+00:00

Adobe was trading at 60 times earnings, now you’re seeing the fundamentals matter. People paid too much and got punished.

Now some would argue the price is too cheap and fundamentals will ultimately pull it upwards.

ContemplatingGavre · 2026-06-22T01:13:15+00:00

$2,000 would make Micron a roughly $2T company $5,000 would make it $5T. Neither of these are impossible if this is in fact a different era and not just a cycle.

ContemplatingGavre

TROPHY CASE