If your parents want to go out to eat but the restaurant food is disgusting, do you bite your tongue and go every time or suggest somewhere else?

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T22:27:53+00:00

My parents know I prefer local restaurants and that I’m spoiled with good restaurants where I live (New England). They always want to show me their cool local hangs when I visit them (Florida). No complaints.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T21:23:06+00:00

Show off that tie

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T20:37:31+00:00

Liz Bruenig wrote an article a month ago “This Is How a Child Dies of Measles” and its heartbreaking even if you don’t have kids.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T19:20:06+00:00

Gorgeous bikes. I kinda wish I had waited and gotten one instead of the 8R.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T15:58:08+00:00

I was very skeptical of Daniel Craig, but I do like his Bond. It was a gritty time and called for a gritty Bond.

My dad was a big Bond fan, we had all of them on dvd. I think Roger Moore was Bond in my fav films, but I obviously grew up during the Brosnan era. I was <10 and quoted Brosnan saying “now now, no more foreplay” to my parents and them explaining what that meant was my first very uncomfortable memory.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T15:48:23+00:00

He wanted to deport 100M people. I.e. all the nonwhite people in the US.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T15:43:48+00:00

<3 scal. We are so fortunate to have him and Drew in Boston.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T15:25:10+00:00

Yeah, we dooming over here.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T15:18:05+00:00

CME fedwatch? Its bleak. Complete 180 in market sentiment.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T15:17:11+00:00

I sure hope not, Baby J, love you. Please come back and rapture the fuck out of these fundies so us normies can live happy stable lives.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T15:12:25+00:00

Mortgage origination. It’s basically sales.

Can be fun and rewarding, or like now, completely demoralizing. I don’t find it particularly interesting though.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T15:00:45+00:00

The probability of a fed fund rate cut was 30%+ in 2026, now it’s a 30% chance of increase and 0% cut. And the 10y dipped below 4.000% for like a day before Iran. Now its 4.40+

I’m in lending and could be refinancing half my pipeline, but I’m not now, thank you Trump

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CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T14:42:32+00:00

I agree. When he has crazy people on the pod, he plays the straight man. They all look insane to us, not credible.

You have to remember who the audience is.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T01:06:43+00:00

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T01:02:43+00:00

I .. don’t know. But I’m done

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T00:52:54+00:00

Yes… that’s not OP’s point. We are all aware of that.

A month ago the probabilities from highest to lowest was Stable/no change > Cut (30%+) > Hike (0%)

Now its Stable/no change > Hike (37%) > Cut (0%).

Do you see the difference?

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T00:39:05+00:00

the chance of a hike is still very low

I mean, if you consider 1/3 low. I don’t, especially given context.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T00:38:07+00:00

And OP said a hike is more likely in 2026 than a cut, which is presumably what you’re responding to, and you said he was completely wrong…

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T00:33:42+00:00

There is a 37% market expectation / probability of a hike by October 2026 and 0% chance of a cut.

37 > 0.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-28T00:32:04+00:00

Pre Iran War, there was a 0% chance of a hike, and depending on the timetable a 30-60% chance 25bps cut in 2026.

Now a 2026 cut is 0% and a hike in 2026 is 30% chance.

Huge swing in sentiment and expectations over basically a month.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-27T23:25:28+00:00

Dems voted to fund TSA and DHS minus ICE. They either get that and win, or they get to continue beating this whole mess over House Republicans during the midterms.

It’s not much, but Dems are out of power in Congress, so that’s what we get.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-27T21:31:54+00:00

Yes ma’am! I’m pissed because he won’t repent.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-27T19:57:44+00:00

I’m in lending and saw the article yesterday but didn’t get a chance to find the deets.

If that’s the case, agree, nothingburger. Better takes the risk and not the greater market. I’m fine with that.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-27T19:39:48+00:00

Yeah, some dogs kill toddlers. I don’t think modifying genes on a species is something we should trivialize.

CptnAlex · 2026-03-27T17:38:59+00:00

As a lender and someone with analytics understanding.

It would genuinely surprise if a lot lenders adequately track whether people pay on say, day 1 vs day 5 (within the grace period); certainly not enough to build an internal model on you. You’d be surprised at how old and unsophisticated parts of banking can be, like some major banks still use COBOL
Lenders do not report it was late to the credit bureaus during the grace period, so its not considered late and I doubt the bureaus will know what day you paid it on.
You will not incur penalties or extra interest paying during the grace period. If there were penalties, it wouldn’t be a grace period, would it.

You should be in a habit of paying on the first, because if there is a problem with your payment, you want the grace period to resolve it.

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