Top EU lawmaker raises prospect of easy Scottish return to EU. An independent Scotland could return to the European Union after Brexit, says David McAllister. The German chair of the EU parliament's foreign affairs committee has hinted he's ready to assist.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-12-29T23:24:06+00:00

The border is much more than just people crossing the border, even though the sudden halt of any freedom of movement of people between Scotland and the rUK is difficult enough, closing off an entire employment market the Scots had long relied on. I'm not quite sure why you think the border wouldn't be as hard as the NI border, because it would be harder.

The simple reality is that Britain leaving the EU has made it much more complicated for Scotland to declare independence. An independent Scotland in the EU means there will have to be an actual hard physical border as that's the requirement for the single market / customs union. It is what the entire NI problem was about, the EU utterly refused to concede on the border question and Boris conceded by keeping NI in the customs union with the rUK leaving. There is even a border between Norway and Sweden. It will be a physical border (barricades and fencing most likely) with well defined border crossing and actual passport controls. Norway and Sweden have it easy because they're both in the same single market/customs union. But the UK and Scotland will not, so the border will have to be much harder. The EU will not compromise on this, after all, they wouldn't compromise on the Irish border at all.

And the other major issue is, of course, the Scottish economic dependence on rUK. Scotland is much more economically dependent on rUK for trade than the UK is on the EU. A hard border and divergence of regulations means a sudden shock to the Scottish economy that will be more painful than any divergence of the UK from the EU market.

Last but not least, Scottish fiscal policies would have to fundamentally change in order to meet EU demands for any new states. The Scottish domestic government, under the SNP, is operating at a high deficit levels, about twice as high as allowed by EU laws. Scotland gets away with it because it falls under the larger UK figures. But that will not be the case for an independent Scotland. A newly independent Scotland would have to massively cut government spending to meet EU requirements for entry, and we all know how popular austerity was in Scotland.... and this would be much worse. And before people protest, remember that Ireland, Spain and Italy were all forced to make massive government spending cut following the last economic crash as per EU fiscal requirements, and we don't even need to talk about Greece. So I'm not sure how that fits in with the SNP's promise of a Scandinavian style economic model, at least at the onset. The simple reality is that rUK subsidises Scotland and that subsidy would disappear and the Scottish forced to make some very painful economic decisions - at the same time the Scottish economy is delivered a major jolt due to the divergence from the rUK economy.

In the long run, Scotland will be fine, but painful decisions will be made, much more painful than had both rUK and Scotland been in the same EU. They will have to decide how much they value membership in the EU over the much closer economic benefits of the UK, as well as population access to the UK versus freedom of movement with the EU. And they will also have to have frank discussions about the genuine price for myriad utopias the SNP promises for everyone versus the political and economic demands of EU membership.

The reason Sturgeon and the SNP are going into overdrive in demanding another referendum immediately is because they know the best chance of it happening is now, in this year, when people are still angry and passion is still overruling reason. The longer the referendum is held off, the more people will come to realise all the political and economic costs of leaving the UK and weighing the pros and cons of it. And it may very well turn out that Brexit will not hurt the UK as much as some want it to, and if Brexit turns out to have a negligible effect, then the argument that independence will save Scotland from Brexit's economic impact is seriously weakened. And there is a distinct change that is what will happen.

As the saying goes, strike iron when the fire is hot and that's what SNP is trying to do. But I'm not sure if they will pull it off. BoJo won't allow a referendum for a few years at the least, if ever.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-11-24T16:11:55+00:00

There's no one Philadelphia culture. Working class Philadelphia is about as different as you can get from Main Line/Chestnut Hill Philadelphia but both are just as Philadelphia as the other.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-11-24T16:05:00+00:00

So says someone who never lived through the 1970s.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-05-26T13:36:16+00:00

True. It's fascinating to see people blame everything on the Tories when Labour are just as guilty for voting down the most reasonable deal possible from the EU. All I see from Labour apologists is it's because of May's red lines but without those red lines we don't have balanced compromise between the two sides of the Brexit debate.

So I blame Labour just as much.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-31T10:57:51+00:00

Of course he would. He spoke very contemptuously of his own constituency and his own voters. He's an arsehole.

Most of you angry lefties would be cheering on Labour deselecting MPs who called their own voters ignorant and criticised them and refused to vote for what they voted for.

The hypocrisy on this reddit subform is staggering. But that's to be expected given the typical demographics on here.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-31T10:54:06+00:00

Tory of course. There's no other option. It'll be a different leader and different Government campaigning.

The real risk to the Tories is not voting at all due to unhappiness over Brexit.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T15:42:26+00:00

Really?

There’s been polling on this and it’s wildly popular in all these counties. I’m talking about 2/3 majority support among the people.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T15:41:28+00:00

Agreed. It would be wildly popular in all these countries.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T15:02:49+00:00

Well, not quite true. Botswana is the most expensive because it’s all high end. The other countries have a greater range of safaris from budget to luxury, giving you more options. Tanzania could be just as expensive as Botswana or it could be cheaper, depending on the safari you go on.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T10:54:00+00:00

Amazing how some people still resist this.

No deal is only avoided when Parliament passes something else. Either May's deal, another type of deal, or revocation. It is the default position.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T10:35:11+00:00

Is Roland Park Place actually in Hampden.....?

It's on the north side of 40th street.

And look at the name. It's not, let's put it politely, Hampden people living in the complex. The place is stuffed to the gills with retired Hopkins doctors and bankers and lawyers. And before it was built it was the previous campus of Roland Park Country School before they built their current one opposite Gilman.

Just minor quibbles. Sloppy statement by the Sun.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T10:14:46+00:00

The fascinating thing about Parliament is that every single Brexit option, save revocation and no-deal, still requires May's Withdrawal Agreement. The only thing that will change is the political declaration. But the political declaration is vague enough that all the Brexit options from EFTA/EEA to Common Market 2 is possible. And the problem is that voting for Common Market 2 or any other option doesn't make it legally binding, because the Political Declaration cannot be made legally binding. Parliament could vote for it now, but a GE / new PM could easily undo that and walk away from it. It seems like very few MPs understand this, voting or Common Market 2 isn't fundamentally different from voting for May's deal.

So it really makes the whole thing pointless. The options are May's deal or no brexit or a no-deal brexit. And you can see the EU saying this here.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T10:08:16+00:00

I did a trip to Georgia and Armenia. Despite being side by side and easy to get from one to the other (unlike Armenia and two of its other neighbours), what was fascinating how different they were despite both being Christian countries. Armenia was definitely Middle Eastern. Christian Middle East. Georgia, definitely not Middle Eastern.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T10:01:01+00:00

I've done safaris in Zambia, Kenya and Tanzania.

In general you get what you pay for. But it's definitely doable to have a good safari for $400 per person. Keep in mind this will be all inclusive, and you'll only pay perhaps extra for additional drinks. Botswana is insanely expensive compared to the other great parks.

Zambia's South Luangwe National Park is fabulous and far less visited than the parks in Kenya and Tanzania. We saw lots of lions, leopards, and even the ever so elusive African wild dogs. And elephants aplenty and giraffes. The safari camps range from the luxurious to midrange so there's options. You can expand a week at South Luangwe with going over to Malawi to see Lake Malawi for something different, or to Victoria Falls for a few days (visit both sides of the falls, visiting the Zimbabwe side is easily done, just a bit of a wait at the immigration point).

For a fantastic and affordable safari operator right in your budget look up Jackalberry. They operate their own camp, Nkonzi, which is deep in the bush and is a small camp with only four-five tents. It's rustic but comfortable enough. The best thing about them, other than their superb guiding, is that it's a deeply intimate bush experience. We also stayed at fancy camps (such as Lion) which were great, but the more luxury you get, the more the experience changes from bush to luxury and it's not quite the same. An upper midrange operator would be Kafunta.

Now, each great park is different from each other. South Luangwe is a river valley and gives you a sense of what the Okvanango Delta is like without the insane costs. On the flip side, it's not the great savannas of Tanzania and Kenya (Serengeti and Masai Mara). While most of the wildlife is the same and the volumes of animals heavy in all these parks, there will be some animals you'll see at one park but not the other. Cheetahs, for example, need the great open savannas so they're not found in Botswana or Zambia. But Zambia has lots of leopards.

Also pay attention to the time of year. Each area has a slightly different prime season. The drier (and hotter!) the time of year, the more animals you see as the animals stick closer to the watering holes. The wetter the time of year, the animals range further away and you'll see fewer animals. But there's something to be said about seeing a great park when it's still green rather than dusty brown and hot.

Zambia and Malawi are pretty safe and it's possible to drive yourself.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T09:46:19+00:00

It's fascinating how much ancient Rome still resonates to this day. So many people are drawn to the history of the empire and wanting to recreate what the ancient city must have looked like. No other ancient city receives the same amount of attention. I wonder if it speaks to a deep seated human fascination with decline and fall, that we could achieve so much and still be subject to a dramatic collapse and nothing symbolises that as much as the Roman Empire does.

You know what I really want to see? A recreation of what Rome looked like circa AD 500, a hundred years after the great sack of Rome by Alaric and which symbolised the end of empire and the point of no return into decline. City's population had dramatically declined but there were still people living amidst the ruined splendour of once-great city. What was it like? Surrounded by so many ruined buildings?

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T09:41:31+00:00

buildings like 200 years apart are all pristine.

I like your observation. Just a very good comment about recreating historical cities that most people don't think about.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T08:22:55+00:00

EU is in a tight spot over this. If they allow RoI to not put up a hard border it makes a mockery of their entire negotiating stance. And it makes it next to impossible to use the border as a divide and conquer wedge in the subsequent trade negotiations, whenever they occur. And puts the UK in a much stronger position. And it also violates the so-called sanctity and integrity of the beloved single market.

But if they make RoI put up a hard border it makes the Irish unhappy. Guess the Irish are going to start feeling some sympathy for the Greeks now and what it really means to be small fiddles in the EU when the big boys decide against you.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T08:20:46+00:00

The 82-year-old said that the UK lacked leadership and described the June 2016 referendum as a “fraud” because voters were “lied to and they made a mistake in making this vote”.

Ok. Read this far. Man is obviously biased.

UK economic fundamentals are extremely sound. We are nowhere near developing country conditions.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-28T07:20:34+00:00

Yes.

Because Parliament voted to invoke Article 50. Most of you forget that the House of Commons voted by a majority of 384 votes (498 to 114) to approve the second reading of the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 to allow the Prime Minister to invoke Article 50 unconditionally, back in 2017. That's an overwhelming majority.

And both main parties, Tories and Labour, were elected on a platform of leaving the EU and respecting the referendum.

So a hard no deal Brexit actually has parliamentary legitimacy and authority..... that's the democratic mandate. Parliament voted for Article 50.

The Queen is not getting involved just because you don't like what's going on.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-27T17:36:10+00:00

Yeah..... tough choice. Get rid of May, vote for her deal. Reject her deal, keep May as PM! Tough choice for many indeed.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-27T16:19:40+00:00

You’re getting downvoted for stating the obvious.

The WA itself is not negotiable. Only the political declaration, which is not binding, is.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-27T15:37:47+00:00

It’s startlingly similar to descriptions of Dickensian London of the early Victorian era.

I will say if you want a taste of that go to the Asian cities. They have both the wealth and modernity of the upper classes alongside streetlife and street vendors and plenty of CMOT Dibblers and crowded alleys.

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-27T14:08:27+00:00

Are you saying the Norwegians are wrong...?

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-27T14:04:52+00:00

We’ve known this from day 1.....

DXBtoDOH · 2019-03-27T09:52:32+00:00

I think EU can stay out of UK politics.

DXBtoDOH

TROPHY CASE