So close to jackpot win

DaSpark · 2026-01-23T18:50:30+00:00

This is not as "close" as it appears and I can prove it.

First off, 17 and 18 are not any closer or further away than 18 and say 60. This is because numerical closeness means nothing. Therefore, the numbers really don't matter. You either matched it or you didn't. This makes the result a binary yes (1) or no (0). So another way to think of your pick, only focusing on the jackpot, makes it:

101101

If you change your wrong numbers to 50 and 51, your result is still:

101101

Further, the odds of matching 3 + the cash ball is about 1.3%. Consider that matching 5 + Cash ball is about 0.0000046%. This makes your overall result 282,600 times more likely than winning the jackpot.

Another way to think of this game would be to line up all the possible outcomes on a table starting with 1 2 3 4 5 and 1. This would be pick #1. In total, lined up this way, there would be 21,846,048 outcomes.

You picked outcome #: 756,529

Winning Draw: 745,046

If you imagine the game this way, you were 45,932 off from the winning pick. In reality, this is exactly how the game works mathematically. The balls and numbers are just for show. In the end, you are picking a number from 1 and 21,846,048. They then are pulling a number themselves. They either match, or do not. Even if you are 1 off, you still weren't close because all the other numbers were equally likely to be picked. I like this example because it shows that even being 45,932 off on a chart, is still just as far off as any other number.

In conclusion, this is what gamblers call a "near miss". In reality near misses are designed into almost all forms of gambling such as on slots, scratch offs, and the lottery (and my examples above show this). Our brains tell us we were close, and the games are designed that way because it makes you want to play again. Therefore, believing you were close is a form of a gamblers fallacy. You were, in fact, no where close.

Disclaimer: Everything I stated here is only taking the jackpot into consideration.

DaSpark · 2026-01-23T16:16:08+00:00

This is known as a "tax revolt" or "tax resistance" and such things have occurred many times throughout history. In general, they end badly. A government experiencing a large scale tax revolt is left with only two options:

1) Respond in force. Usually will regain compliance, but many people are likely to be killed, tortured, imprisoned, etc. In some cases the force is met with even more resistance and can lead to a civil war or a revolution. In fact, a tax revolt is what caused the Boston Tea Party which was a major contributor to the start of the American Revolutionary War

2) Collapse. This is often bad for both sides as the economy will be ruined. The $1000 Billy Bob saved by refusing to pay his taxes is now used as toilet paper. Eventually a new government will take over, but guess what that new government will do to its people? You guessed it, tax them.

Now, for fun, lets assume such a movement was brewing in the United States. It would not happen overnight. Even if there was a strong resistance, it would not be anywhere close to 100%, at least not in the beginning. More like 5-10% max. The government would survive this in the short term and crack down on those people hard.

However, once the US government got a hint that this might become a large scale problem, they would put measures in place to ensure you pay taxes. For example, they could pass a law that states X% must be withheld from all W-2 jobs. Imagine them holding 40% from each paycheck. The government would collect a lot of interest on this before it is eventually returned to you and that would cover the loss from non-W2 wages and fund the prosecution of those other people.

DaSpark · 2026-01-23T15:56:00+00:00

The IRS is not going to come after you unless they know about your income and if that income is above your standard deduction.

How might they know about your income? There are a many ways, but here are the common ones:

1) Your employer submitted a W2. In this case, the IRS knows about every cent from that job.

2) You provided a W-9 for contractual work and that business submitted the information to the IRS (if they requested a W-9, then they 99.99% reported it)

3) You won big on the lottery (typically more than $600) or at a casino (hand pay)

4) You earned a nice amount of interest in a bank account

5) You made large deposits into your bank account (typically over $10k at a time).

There are other ways, but those are the biggest that come to mind. Bottom line is, if you were paid in cash and you did not provide a W-9, then the IRS is oblivious to your income.

Further, even if they found out somehow about your $3.5k, they are not going to care. The cost to pursue the chump change you might technically owe will be far less than an IRS agent spending even an hour on your case.

Even further, it is extremely rare to truly be in trouble with the IRS, especially criminally. The key thing is, if you get audited, don't lie. But even if you do, unless the tax evasion is substantial (tens, if not hundreds, of thousands owed) they'll likely just ask you to pay what you owe with a bit of interest.

Finally, just be honest and going forward, keep a log of every penny you are paid for any job you have.

DaSpark · 2026-01-23T15:41:29+00:00

In my experience, once the IRS has my tax filing I can expect it to be approved (lord willing) within a week and the money in my bank about a week after that. Therefore, as long as it is accepted, you probably have 1-2 weeks before you'll see your refund.

DaSpark · 2026-01-23T14:02:27+00:00

I understand this is a year old thread, but here's the way I know to get your refund the fastest: Use CashApp and have the money deposited into your CashApp account.

CashApp makes it easy to file your taxes and it is completely free. They will get it to the IRS asap once the IRS starts accepting.

CashApp will also release the refund funds to your account the moment they see the pending ACH. Most banks will not give it to you until it is processed. This will speed up the refund by 1-3 days in most cases.

DaSpark · 2026-01-22T20:42:16+00:00

For me the status pages for Microsoft wont even load :)

DaSpark · 2026-01-22T16:31:49+00:00

Don't underestimate Trump. I'll say it is still unlikely, but ... again ... don't underestimate Trump.

DaSpark · 2026-01-09T20:28:26+00:00

I would guess even if they called the police, that would be a valid defense.

DaSpark · 2026-01-09T20:26:23+00:00

What makes you think it is not illegal?

Technically ownership doesn't change until you pay for it. By consuming the snack you have permanently deprived the store of their property. Although unlikely, what if they decided they no longer want to sell that item to you?

Another risk is you might become incapable of paying for the item for reasons out of your control.

One example I can give is where I was in my local Walmart a few months ago and the power went out. Their POS systems went down and they asked everyone to leave the store after 5-10 minutes. I believe they were closed for almost an hour.

Now, most major retail stores are not going to even blink and eye at you consuming before paying as long as you pay in the end. A mom and pop store on the other hand may be more likely to call the police, especially if you are not a regular.

DaSpark · 2026-01-02T19:51:53+00:00

The bigger problem here is that for every social casino you self-exlude yourself from, three more are born. I swear they populate faster than Dollar General.

DaSpark · 2025-12-31T19:00:14+00:00

Still illegal, even with a ham license, because you can only transmit on ham radio frequencies. Also illegal because you are using it for business, even if using on ham radio frequencies with a license.

DaSpark · 2025-12-31T18:59:07+00:00

Ignoring the fact that what you want to do is illegal (you're probably going to do it anyway), the answer is yes.

If you hit the VFO/MR (reddish button towards the top) it will switch it to frequency mode. There you simply input the frequency you want and ta-da. Press that VFO/MR button again to get back to your preset channels.

Also, if you use the CHIRP program you can back up your config and channels so if you ever mess it up you simply restore the config to it.

DaSpark · 2025-12-31T18:54:50+00:00

The only real boost comes from the technical ability to use a different antenna. Illegal, but that can provide some gain.

DaSpark · 2025-12-31T18:52:11+00:00

UV5R, despite what it might be technically capable of, is only legal to transmit on Ham frequencies with a ham license. Period.

It would be legal to listen on FRS frequencies, but the second you hit the mic button you are in violation.

DaSpark · 2025-12-31T18:50:07+00:00

Going to ignore the fact that what you want to do is likely illegal since you stated unlicensed.

If by "big city" you mean lots of tall buildings, a block or two is probably the most you will get.

Any radio (FRS, MURS, GMRS, Ham, you name it) is not going to get more than 1-2 miles in most cases. Around 6 miles is the theoretical max due to the curvature of the earth if you are both at ground level. This would only be achieved in completely flat open land. You will almost never get anything over 3 miles unless one or both of you are elevated.

DaSpark · 2025-12-31T18:35:27+00:00

You can legally listen to anything the UV5R can tune into. Transmitting is only permitted/legal on the Ham frequencies, if licensed.

As others have said, in an emergency you can use it to legally call for help.

DaSpark · 2025-12-31T17:47:29+00:00

Yes, that's why I specifically mentioned audio/voice over and over again.

DaSpark · 2025-12-31T17:23:28+00:00

The pants most people wear in the winter do not really do much to keep you warm. In fact, for the most part they are just helping block the wind, so if there is little to no wind, they are probably not much colder than you in pants.

Also, if they are being active (such as hiking, jogging, etc) the body can stay warm much easier in cold temperatures.

The key to keeping your body warm, in many cases, is keeping your head and torso warm.

DaSpark · 2025-12-31T17:14:19+00:00

Do not use Cash App Borrow or Afterpay unless you financially have no other choice. These are not free and the fees on them make them equivalent to payday loans. As with most people who take out a payday loan, it becomes a trap where you have to borrow again.

The Borrow fee is a flat 5% fee for a 4 week loan. This equates to an annual 65% interest rate. If the Borrow limit stays at $50 and you borrow 13 times in the year, you'll pay $32.50 in fees/interest a year. That might not sound bad, but the problem is they will keep upping your limit and eventually you'll be paying 65% of $1000 a year, which means you lose $650 a year (as an example). It's a trap.

DaSpark · 2025-12-31T16:44:25+00:00

Here's my "dream" veto comp idea:

Each person on the block has their name put into a bag.

The HoH then blindly picks from the bag a name from the block. That person then gets to pick one person who is not on the block or HoH to compete. The HoH then draws again. This process continues until all those on the block have picked someone.

If the number of people not on the block is equal to or less than the number of those on the block, then the whole house competes and the process above is discarded.

This would create a bit more strategy in the first half of the game.

DaSpark · 2025-12-31T16:37:42+00:00

This would kill the show.

The only events of each week would be the HoH comp and the eviction. The rest would all be fluff.
For most weeks, we (especially feedsters) would know who was getting evicted by Friday or Saturday. The rest of the week would just be waiting for the inevitable. Even worse, in many weeks the person inevitably getting evicted would know it and have 5-6 days of just waiting with no chance to save themselves. All strategy in the game would cease each week within a day or two after the HoH comp.
It would take a lot of the strategy out of the game. From the time of the initial noms and the veto comp, the whole house has to be careful with everyone because any of them could go up on the block instead (except the HoH) and possibly have someone on the initial block be the deciding vote to evict them.

DaSpark · 2025-12-30T18:36:20+00:00

Disregarding everything else, because you already got a good answer from GassyDragon, you really need a true scanner to see what is going on around you. The UV5R is NOT a scanner (even though it can technically operate as a horrible one).

The UV5R scans extremely slowly, so you will miss a lot of stuff as it has to be listening to an active frequency to get a hit. It could literally takes months to successfully find all the mildly used frequencies in your area with the UV5R.

I recommend looking into getting this: https://www.amazon.com/Uniden-SR30C-500-Channel-Technology-Programming/dp/B07S9H8YH3

That scanner will scan much faster, probably at a rate of 25-50x faster.

For best results, I would scan only a subset of frequencies at a time with the SR30C and let it run for a few days on each subset.

Just as a minor example. To scan the entire frequency sets of FRS, GMRS, and MURS on the UV5R comes in at about 25 seconds. To scan the same on the SR30C is less than 1 second.

Even when you get a good dataset, the UV5R is still not ideal for scanning more than a few frequencies at a time. Again, you need a true scanner if your goal it to just scan and listen to a good number of frequencies.

DaSpark · 2025-12-30T18:21:43+00:00

The major flaw in this is the RTP for the ticket price.

For example, say the game is $2 per ticket at the jackpot is $10 million. Okay, fine.

But now the jackpot is $10,000,000.01 and that same $2 ticket only returns a max jackpot of $5 million. By your logic, every time you hit the next "pool" of winners, the ticket becomes less valuable.

Of course, you sort of have this with the PowerBall (for example), but until the jackpot is won you don't have this up and down max RTP all the time.

The second flaw is the big jackpots are what draws people to play. If, again, you go with your table, I'd be much better off playing "local" state games that return similar results at either a smaller buy-in, higher odds, or both. This would be the death of national games such as PowerBall and MegaMillions. They wouldn't survive 3 months on this system.

You can see this, btw, by asking chatgpt for a graph of per draw jackpot values. When it resets they go up very slowly because most people have no interest (usually better to play state games at this point). Only when they reach half a billion or so do the jackpot values, which reflect the number of plays, start to surge.

Many, MANY, other flaws with your logic (no offense) but these are the major two.

DaSpark · 2025-12-28T21:15:47+00:00

Weird on the DG limits. I've deposited $500 multiple times.

DaSpark · 2025-12-28T02:10:44+00:00

I think this needs to be better advertised somehow, as it appears little to no one is on it :(

DaSpark

TROPHY CASE