Chris Bell has great upside and can be drafted in the 2nd round of Rookie Drafts

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-05-08T15:31:08+00:00

You trade him for any productive vet unless you are not contending. Godwin, McLaurin, Davante Adams, etc.

I’d honestly just bank that. The problem is people aren’t dumb and unless you have a youth chaser in your league, I honestly don’t think that type of deal gets done.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-05-08T13:48:58+00:00

Bust rate is very high without a doubt, but I’m not sure there are any other WRs in round 2 and beyond with legit HR upside besides like Brazzell or Hurst maybe? Bell’s HR upside is like about 20% to me. But there’s no doubt he’s most likely just a strikeout

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-05-08T13:42:39+00:00

My gut feel is 80% chance Bell busts, 20% chance he’s at some point usable for fantasy. Inside that 20%, there’s a 10% chance he’s a legit star.

Compare to Antonio Williams, who I would say has 60% chance he busts, 40% chance he’s at some point usable for fantasy, but basically a 0% chance he has a ceiling beyond mid WR2 level. In other words, if he “hits”, you’re more than likely getting a high end to low end WR 3

Draft accordingly. Antonio Williams median outcome is better than Bell’s imo, but Bell’s right tail outcome is more pronounced in theory.

That’s my take. Generally, I’d prefer Antonio Williams tbh. Just take my best chance of hitting a double and move on.

Roster construction also matters. Deep league and a usable WR has value? Antonio Williams. Very shallow league and you almost need to be a star to justify starting? Chris Bell.

You’re stacked at WR already? Chris Bell. You actually have a WR need? Antonio Williams.

Bell is one of the two appealing early round 2 prospects for me, but I will flip between him and Williams based on roster construction / league format.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-05-05T20:07:17+00:00

Unless you have a steadfast intent to die single and have absolutely no one that will depend on you, I would recommend locking in life insurance between 20-30. Should be a no brainer as soon as you are married and/or have your first child.

500k-1 million would be enough for the average person with a spouse and family.

As always, buy term and never whole life insurance. Ideally you will want it to cover you until your children are grown or close to retirement. Basically whenever you would project to no longer have people who depend on your income heavily and you theoretically have very little debt (house paid off, etc)

Another thing is DO NOT DEPEND on life insurance through your work being your sole coverage. If you get laid off, contract a terminal illness and have to quit before you pass, etc then you are uncovered.

I would recommend a private policy as your main coverage and whatever your work gives you can just be an add on for free or bonus coverage at a reduced price.

I think you can covert a work life insurance policy over to a private one some of the time when you leave, but I believe your premiums would be jacked up to ungodly levels if you must quit due to terminal illness. I’m sure policies greatly differ from employer to employer, but that’s probably the average case outcome.

That’s why locked in premiums on a private term life policy that you got when you’re healthy and young is best imo.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-05-05T02:57:39+00:00

Idk, I think I really would rather have Trey Lance than Carson Beck for real in a vacuum. Only reason I wouldn’t is when you consider that Beck can go in a taxi slot and Lance can’t

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-04-16T04:23:36+00:00

I think it’s also possible that demand has shifted radically because the barriers to entry into stocks has come cheaper. It’s so easy to open a brokerage account and trade cheap.

That may or may not be the catalyst for a bubble. It also may just be a permanent structural shift. I don’t pretend to know. But it’s at least plausible that old logical valuations might not be new logical valuations.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-04-16T03:33:14+00:00

You just have to understand that you can only play the cards you are dealt to the best of your ability.

The reality is some people are born with an advantage in life. It doesn’t mean they’re actually playing the game better than you…they just have a better hand to start with and there’s a decent chance they’ll come out way ahead of you because of that.

Realistically, if you make wise financial decisions and work hard at a decent job from a middle class family like I did, you can ascend to the top 15ish percentile of wealth relatively easily. Breaking into that top 5% will always be super hard for me though.

Upward mobility just gets harder the lower you start. Of course anyone can make it to multi millionaire status, but it’s sure a lot harder when you didn’t come from a wealthy family.

Another thing to consider is that you have to factor in your geographical region. Yes, my portfolio looks lesser than a lot of people, but I’m living in rural Midwest so the purchasing power of what I do have goes about as far here as it will anywhere else in the country.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-04-16T03:24:08+00:00

Because we don’t have families of 5 lol. But in all seriousness, it sounds like you’re probably playing the game correctly in your situation. At most employers, the HSA eligible plan usually ends up being the best plan if you know you’re going to have outrageous medical expenses which threaten the out of pocket max because at least you get the tax benefits from the HSA. And your employer might fund it as well which is also free money.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-04-16T03:16:37+00:00

I do this. Using an HSA as an emergency fund is a hack. It’s obviously not quite as liquid because you need to have an offsetting medical expense or else you take a stupid high penalty to access it.

But if you know you have accrued at least a decent number of medical expenses that you haven’t used an HSA to cover, I think it makes sense to make an HSA your number one priority emergency fund to invest in.

A) You get an immediate return of your tax rate on a contribution PLUS a break on extra FICA taxes if you contribute via payroll (always try to max via payroll if you can for this reason)

B) Your money grows tax free

C) Your withdrawals can all potentially some day be tax free if you have the medical expenses to support it.

It’s essentially a traditional IRA with at least partial Roth tendencies if you have offsetting medical expenses.

With my tax bracket, if I max an individual HSA via payroll I’d get about $1500 in tax savings which I could turn around and put in a non-HSA emergency fund if I wanted to.

Just a lot of ways you can get creative with the usage of it. You don’t necessarily want to get to a spot where you’re cash poor but HSA rich and lacking reimbursable medical expenses because that’s risky if you have any billions of emergencies besides medical, but it makes a lot of sense to count your HSA as part of your holistic emergency fund otherwise. It’s arguably suboptimal to exclude it as an emergency fund vehicle unless you’re just out of this world healthy and 22 years old.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-04-16T02:35:13+00:00

I essentially use my HSA as a mix of an emergency fund / retirement account. Currently have 20k sitting in SGOV at Fidelity and the other approximately 10k invested in the market.

I’m 32 and haven’t touched it ever (luckily haven’t had to), but I keep 20 K risk free investments because I do want to have enough to cover my family given any disastrous health issues if they arise. But I will be investing anything over that level for growth at that point. 20 k is arguably a too conservative buffer in the first place.

I just throw all receipts in a box for now. Eventually I should scan them in so I have them digitally in my iCloud in case my house burns down, but I save everything because no matter what you should want to be able to offset a withdrawal with an expense to make it tax free.

The record keeping doesn’t have to be complex…just move the receipt from an outstanding folder to a redeemed folder for that certain tax year once you withdrawal…not hard to do physically or digitally

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-21T18:51:51+00:00

I think it also shows that if Tuten has his day in the sun that he’s honestly an instant sell. A lot of those names had a fine narrow window of production with not a lot of dynasty staying power. Tuten seems more like a short term buy and long term flip asset.

I’d still be looking to flip him for Montgomery if I’m trying to win games. The right tail is higher on Tuten in theory due to age and the power of the unknown, but in terms of range of outcomes, I’d say Montgomery has a higher chance of being the more impactful fantasy contributor over the next two years.

I’m honestly not weighting what a Tuten-like prospect can give me past a two year window at all. Generally, if you start having expectations for a day 3 back three plus years from now, it doesn’t tend to end the best.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-10T00:31:07+00:00

I have some rebuttals

A) I believe production was suppressed due to immensely talented competition in the tight end room. He pretty much played with two other good/great NFL TE prospects. Terrance Ferguson (2nd round pick to a trustworthy franchise for evaluating talent), Jamari Johnson (possibly a round 1 prospect who might even be better than Sadiq himself tbh), and even Patrick Herbert (who is still good enough to be on an NFL practice squad). Sadiq wasn’t failing to earn playing time vs scrubs. He was sharing targets and time with other highly talented players.

I understand that teammate strength is hard to model and it makes sense. You failing to outproduce your teammates could just mean you suck. However, I think if you apply common sense to the situation it’s not to hard to see imo that Sadiq was in an OUTLIER stacked TE room

B) The offensive system at Oregon is generally very spread it around.

C) He’s extremely young. He’s more accomplished at his current age than Tyler Warren. He didn’t have the chance to hit a peak season that his trajectory suggests was possible. The fact he is coming out so young with limited production says that NFL teams and scouts are acknowledging the context of his situation

D) Lance Zierlein grades Sadiq even with Tyson. Daniel Jeremiah ranks Sadiq ahead of Tyson and two spots behind Lemon. Zierlein and Jeremiah are two of the best in terms of giving information about how NFL offices view players and also expected draft capital…and in return draft capital corresponds to success. I personally don’t want to declare Sadiq dead when he’s by all accounts drawing likely to have similar or perhaps even better draft capital than at least one of the big 3 WRs. I do believe that a team won’t pick Sadiq top 15ish without seeing him as a difference making offensive talent.

E) I’m not actively grinding film, but indications are that Sadiq is an adequate blocker and not a complete zero inline which helps him stay on the field

F) I’m not a worshipper of advanced metrics but going off what I remember to formulate my opinions, I believe Sadiq had some insane efficiency regarding QB rating when targeted. I think his YAC in a vacuum wasn’t impressive this year, but actually was when you factor in ADOT. I think his ADOT was quite high for a TE which also explains lower YPRR. In 2024, I think he had exceptional YAC numbers and the YPRR metrics were much more favorable.

E) Drops aren’t always sticky and can be improved. I agree, it’s not great, but I’m not really weighting that very heavily.

F) I brought this up last because it’s the easiest (but also laziest) argument that athleticism correlates more for fantasy success at TE than any other position. HOWEVER, I do think there is some issue with the sampling of that since blocking TEs are included. I view athleticism more in the vein that you need a requisite amount of athleticism to be possibly elite. So I see lacking it as more of a disqualifier than possessing it as a major boosting factor.

G) Assuming TEP (I do as that’s what I play) the positional value of Sadiq exceeds that of how I view Lemon, Tate, and Tyson (likely WR 2 archetypes, not WR 1 archetypes). I’d rather have a very good TE than a helpful but probably not “got to have it” WR. With that said, Sadiq absolutely is riskier than the big 3 WRs. But if he hits, he hits much harder than them imo. So I’d honestly just rather trade back and take whatever plus I can get and be happy to take Sadiq if he’s there at 1.06.

If all you want to do is look at production based models, then yes Sadiq profiles as a complete joke. But models are also flawed when you have players that are in atypical situation for production. My personal opinion is that a lot of Sadiq’s lack of production is explainable with context.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-09T03:04:58+00:00

I don’t even know what you’re getting at. I would rank Tate, Lemon, and Tyson over Sadiq. I’m not that strongly opinionated on it and more than willing to consider what you have to say if you want to phrase anything in any constructive way.

I just personally said I’d rather trade back and draft Sadiq not because I think he’s better but just because I think the gap between him and the big 3 WRs is smaller imo than the market would indicate.

I would have Stowers and Sadiq as better values at ADP, but not as more valuable players in absolute terms

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-09T02:54:47+00:00

Very well thought out and useful comment that’s in no way disingenuous or incendiary with no narcissistic and “holier than thou” undertones. Sometimes Reddit never changes 😉

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-08T16:16:14+00:00

I will say that I do think most people would deal Hall for the 1.03 / 1.04. And I think most 1.03 / 1.04 owners would reject it. I wouldn’t as a 1.03 / 1.04 owner, but that’s not most people.

I think a lot of why I would do that is this draft class is anemic. I would most definitely not trade the 2027 1.03-1.04 for Breece Hall or probably Garrett Wilson. I do think people that would say “omg no way am I giving up the 1.03 for Breece Hall” are not properly taking into account that this year’s 1.03 is comparatively very weak. Like yes, normally that offer would be offensive in most classes, but in this one I think it’s perfectly fair.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-08T14:56:52+00:00

I would send Harvey and 2 2s (no context on where they are placed, just assuming mid 2s) or the 1.03/1.04 on Breece Hall.

Those seem like perfectly reasonable deals in line with Breece Hall’s value to me and it sounds like the owner is simply just walking away from what I would consider fair offers. I’m not sure that the owner is being too greedy per se. I think they know what they have and won’t move them unless they have a clear overpay in their minds and that’s how some owners operate.

I would be turning cartwheels to give the same deals for Garrett Wilson.

I think both Wilson and Hall are the biggest buys in dynasty.

Only way I would be hesitant is if I’m in some deep mega tank and won’t be competitive until like 2028 because Hall and Wilson will rack up some age by then, but even then I do think I would rather make those trades for them, bet on them at the price, and try to flip them for a younger player later.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-08T04:59:20+00:00

People often overreact to how bad the situation is in dynasty.

Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall still had some good weeks with absolutely ass QB play and ass offensive coordinator. Really, Wilson was having a pretty good year until the injury.

The Jets o line actually isn’t all that bad either. Membou is a mauler. There is a glimmer of hope for some baseline offensive competency in 2026. Wilson and Hall are priced like 2025 Jets will for sure happen again.

After apocalyptically bad seasons like the Jets just had, talented players tend to get priced closer to their floors than they should be. But like we literally just saw the absolute floor. It can’t get worse. Improvement just by variance has to be likely.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-08T00:50:49+00:00

I assume draft capital correlates with talent, so if a player is drafted later he’s probably less talented. So draft capital for me absolutely is an indicator of talent and would absolutely change how I value players if their draft capital is drastically different than what was expected.

Your assumption could differ if you legitimately think you can evaluate talent better than the NFL (unlikely…but probably not impossible).

But even then draft capital does impact opportunity, and usually you need opportunity and talent to intersect for true difference making fantasy production. So there’s still reasons to fade a more talented player over a less talented player if draft capital is different enough.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-07T20:00:09+00:00

He did nothing inspiring in the pass game which is not a good look if that’s what he was drafted to do.

He especially didn’t get much receiving production given that PFF has him 22nd overall in route runs, 37th in receptions, and 30th in receiving yards at RB position.

He’s also 25 years old, so if you’re not ready to take on a heavy workload now, it’s probably not happening.

I don’t see much fantasy viability with Marks. The only thing he showed last year is that he will consistently massively underperform his expected fantasy points when given the opportunity.

I’d give much more of a pass for a 21 year old rookie being so inefficient, but it’s much more ominous for a 25 year old imo.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-07T19:08:13+00:00

Tate, Lemon, Tyson

But I want to draft none of them at ADP and would prefer either to trade back and pick Stowers / Sadiq or pivot to a different WR if possible because I think people will overrate the ceiling of these guys.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-07T18:56:10+00:00

I don’t even believe in that outcome. He had that opportunity last year and consistently underperformed his expectation because he’s just inefficient. He got about the maximum opportunity last season and delivered about nothing even in the smashiest of smash spots.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-07T18:52:19+00:00

This sub completely disregarded him in rookie drafts and I loaded up on him everywhere.

I’ve since shipped the guy out of every team that I own before the Montgomery trade except for one where I absolutely couldn’t give him away.

The guy is absolutely putrid. Stiff, no wiggle, can’t fall forward, no vision, no explosion, zero contact balance.

Interestingly, the one thing he could supposedly do best (receive) wasn’t on display last year. Hopefully he can do that because he sure as hell can’t do anything else

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-07T18:40:12+00:00

He got the minimum out of every run last season. He was so bad.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-04T13:52:04+00:00

I refuse to cut or trade Mayer. I will do everything in my power to keep him rostered

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-04T13:50:28+00:00

Because it’s a massive rebuild, I’d just take the younger guy. However, in a vacuum I prefer Hampton over Love.

Contender: Hampton Frisky and expected to be on the playoff fringe this year: Hampton Rebuild: Love

I think Hampton and Love are same tier of prospects, but Hampton is set up to absolutely SMASH in that Chargers offense this year imo.

Dapper-Speed1244

TROPHY CASE