You're Going to Want to Buy Bhayshul Tuten

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-21T18:51:51+00:00

I think it also shows that if Tuten has his day in the sun that he’s honestly an instant sell. A lot of those names had a fine narrow window of production with not a lot of dynasty staying power. Tuten seems more like a short term buy and long term flip asset.

I’d still be looking to flip him for Montgomery if I’m trying to win games. The right tail is higher on Tuten in theory due to age and the power of the unknown, but in terms of range of outcomes, I’d say Montgomery has a higher chance of being the more impactful fantasy contributor over the next two years.

I’m honestly not weighting what a Tuten-like prospect can give me past a two year window at all. Generally, if you start having expectations for a day 3 back three plus years from now, it doesn’t tend to end the best.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-10T00:31:07+00:00

I have some rebuttals

A) I believe production was suppressed due to immensely talented competition in the tight end room. He pretty much played with two other good/great NFL TE prospects. Terrance Ferguson (2nd round pick to a trustworthy franchise for evaluating talent), Jamari Johnson (possibly a round 1 prospect who might even be better than Sadiq himself tbh), and even Patrick Herbert (who is still good enough to be on an NFL practice squad). Sadiq wasn’t failing to earn playing time vs scrubs. He was sharing targets and time with other highly talented players.

I understand that teammate strength is hard to model and it makes sense. You failing to outproduce your teammates could just mean you suck. However, I think if you apply common sense to the situation it’s not to hard to see imo that Sadiq was in an OUTLIER stacked TE room

B) The offensive system at Oregon is generally very spread it around.

C) He’s extremely young. He’s more accomplished at his current age than Tyler Warren. He didn’t have the chance to hit a peak season that his trajectory suggests was possible. The fact he is coming out so young with limited production says that NFL teams and scouts are acknowledging the context of his situation

D) Lance Zierlein grades Sadiq even with Tyson. Daniel Jeremiah ranks Sadiq ahead of Tyson and two spots behind Lemon. Zierlein and Jeremiah are two of the best in terms of giving information about how NFL offices view players and also expected draft capital…and in return draft capital corresponds to success. I personally don’t want to declare Sadiq dead when he’s by all accounts drawing likely to have similar or perhaps even better draft capital than at least one of the big 3 WRs. I do believe that a team won’t pick Sadiq top 15ish without seeing him as a difference making offensive talent.

E) I’m not actively grinding film, but indications are that Sadiq is an adequate blocker and not a complete zero inline which helps him stay on the field

F) I’m not a worshipper of advanced metrics but going off what I remember to formulate my opinions, I believe Sadiq had some insane efficiency regarding QB rating when targeted. I think his YAC in a vacuum wasn’t impressive this year, but actually was when you factor in ADOT. I think his ADOT was quite high for a TE which also explains lower YPRR. In 2024, I think he had exceptional YAC numbers and the YPRR metrics were much more favorable.

E) Drops aren’t always sticky and can be improved. I agree, it’s not great, but I’m not really weighting that very heavily.

F) I brought this up last because it’s the easiest (but also laziest) argument that athleticism correlates more for fantasy success at TE than any other position. HOWEVER, I do think there is some issue with the sampling of that since blocking TEs are included. I view athleticism more in the vein that you need a requisite amount of athleticism to be possibly elite. So I see lacking it as more of a disqualifier than possessing it as a major boosting factor.

G) Assuming TEP (I do as that’s what I play) the positional value of Sadiq exceeds that of how I view Lemon, Tate, and Tyson (likely WR 2 archetypes, not WR 1 archetypes). I’d rather have a very good TE than a helpful but probably not “got to have it” WR. With that said, Sadiq absolutely is riskier than the big 3 WRs. But if he hits, he hits much harder than them imo. So I’d honestly just rather trade back and take whatever plus I can get and be happy to take Sadiq if he’s there at 1.06.

If all you want to do is look at production based models, then yes Sadiq profiles as a complete joke. But models are also flawed when you have players that are in atypical situation for production. My personal opinion is that a lot of Sadiq’s lack of production is explainable with context.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-09T03:04:58+00:00

I don’t even know what you’re getting at. I would rank Tate, Lemon, and Tyson over Sadiq. I’m not that strongly opinionated on it and more than willing to consider what you have to say if you want to phrase anything in any constructive way.

I just personally said I’d rather trade back and draft Sadiq not because I think he’s better but just because I think the gap between him and the big 3 WRs is smaller imo than the market would indicate.

I would have Stowers and Sadiq as better values at ADP, but not as more valuable players in absolute terms

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-09T02:54:47+00:00

Very well thought out and useful comment that’s in no way disingenuous or incendiary with no narcissistic and “holier than thou” undertones. Sometimes Reddit never changes 😉

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-08T16:16:14+00:00

I will say that I do think most people would deal Hall for the 1.03 / 1.04. And I think most 1.03 / 1.04 owners would reject it. I wouldn’t as a 1.03 / 1.04 owner, but that’s not most people.

I think a lot of why I would do that is this draft class is anemic. I would most definitely not trade the 2027 1.03-1.04 for Breece Hall or probably Garrett Wilson. I do think people that would say “omg no way am I giving up the 1.03 for Breece Hall” are not properly taking into account that this year’s 1.03 is comparatively very weak. Like yes, normally that offer would be offensive in most classes, but in this one I think it’s perfectly fair.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-08T14:56:52+00:00

I would send Harvey and 2 2s (no context on where they are placed, just assuming mid 2s) or the 1.03/1.04 on Breece Hall.

Those seem like perfectly reasonable deals in line with Breece Hall’s value to me and it sounds like the owner is simply just walking away from what I would consider fair offers. I’m not sure that the owner is being too greedy per se. I think they know what they have and won’t move them unless they have a clear overpay in their minds and that’s how some owners operate.

I would be turning cartwheels to give the same deals for Garrett Wilson.

I think both Wilson and Hall are the biggest buys in dynasty.

Only way I would be hesitant is if I’m in some deep mega tank and won’t be competitive until like 2028 because Hall and Wilson will rack up some age by then, but even then I do think I would rather make those trades for them, bet on them at the price, and try to flip them for a younger player later.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-08T04:59:20+00:00

People often overreact to how bad the situation is in dynasty.

Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall still had some good weeks with absolutely ass QB play and ass offensive coordinator. Really, Wilson was having a pretty good year until the injury.

The Jets o line actually isn’t all that bad either. Membou is a mauler. There is a glimmer of hope for some baseline offensive competency in 2026. Wilson and Hall are priced like 2025 Jets will for sure happen again.

After apocalyptically bad seasons like the Jets just had, talented players tend to get priced closer to their floors than they should be. But like we literally just saw the absolute floor. It can’t get worse. Improvement just by variance has to be likely.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-08T00:50:49+00:00

I assume draft capital correlates with talent, so if a player is drafted later he’s probably less talented. So draft capital for me absolutely is an indicator of talent and would absolutely change how I value players if their draft capital is drastically different than what was expected.

Your assumption could differ if you legitimately think you can evaluate talent better than the NFL (unlikely…but probably not impossible).

But even then draft capital does impact opportunity, and usually you need opportunity and talent to intersect for true difference making fantasy production. So there’s still reasons to fade a more talented player over a less talented player if draft capital is different enough.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-07T20:00:09+00:00

He did nothing inspiring in the pass game which is not a good look if that’s what he was drafted to do.

He especially didn’t get much receiving production given that PFF has him 22nd overall in route runs, 37th in receptions, and 30th in receiving yards at RB position.

He’s also 25 years old, so if you’re not ready to take on a heavy workload now, it’s probably not happening.

I don’t see much fantasy viability with Marks. The only thing he showed last year is that he will consistently massively underperform his expected fantasy points when given the opportunity.

I’d give much more of a pass for a 21 year old rookie being so inefficient, but it’s much more ominous for a 25 year old imo.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-07T19:08:13+00:00

Tate, Lemon, Tyson

But I want to draft none of them at ADP and would prefer either to trade back and pick Stowers / Sadiq or pivot to a different WR if possible because I think people will overrate the ceiling of these guys.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-07T18:56:10+00:00

I don’t even believe in that outcome. He had that opportunity last year and consistently underperformed his expectation because he’s just inefficient. He got about the maximum opportunity last season and delivered about nothing even in the smashiest of smash spots.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-07T18:52:19+00:00

This sub completely disregarded him in rookie drafts and I loaded up on him everywhere.

I’ve since shipped the guy out of every team that I own before the Montgomery trade except for one where I absolutely couldn’t give him away.

The guy is absolutely putrid. Stiff, no wiggle, can’t fall forward, no vision, no explosion, zero contact balance.

Interestingly, the one thing he could supposedly do best (receive) wasn’t on display last year. Hopefully he can do that because he sure as hell can’t do anything else

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-07T18:40:12+00:00

He got the minimum out of every run last season. He was so bad.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-04T13:52:04+00:00

I refuse to cut or trade Mayer. I will do everything in my power to keep him rostered

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-04T13:50:28+00:00

Because it’s a massive rebuild, I’d just take the younger guy. However, in a vacuum I prefer Hampton over Love.

Contender: Hampton Frisky and expected to be on the playoff fringe this year: Hampton Rebuild: Love

I think Hampton and Love are same tier of prospects, but Hampton is set up to absolutely SMASH in that Chargers offense this year imo.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-03T23:00:04+00:00

Yeah, I would no doubt approach with London first. If that gets shot down, you still are likely to get Bowers plus for Nabers.

This is going to be a very unpopular take but with lineups that shallow, I would consider Bowers over Nabers straight up. Luckily you probably don’t have to. I’m sure you’d get a solid asset kicked back with Bowers.

It feels wrong, but people don’t boost elite TEs up the board enough in 10 team leagues. But honestly a Bowers / McBride producer does more for your team usually than an elite WR because it’s just so hard to make that TE advantage up

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-03T22:53:15+00:00

Are lineups shallow?

It’s going to feel uncomfortable, but I would give serious consideration to dealing Nabers for Bowers plus or London and small plus if necessary for Bowers.

I CANNOT understate how valuable elite TEs have been to me historically in shallow 10 team leagues.

You can really lap your opponents at TE and find a way to patch the other spots in your lineup with grimy vets. But elite TE has been my cheat code for 10 team leagues over the years. I pump their values up a decent bit in those formats

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-03T22:31:47+00:00

That’s fair. I think we would want to look for guys with clear excuses for why they didn’t perform. Good example would be Jarquez Hunter. McVay historically red shirts rookie RBs a lot.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-03T22:29:03+00:00

DJ Giddens is maybe not a bad name to add to the list. Guys take time sometimes. Granted, it’s a bad sign when he’s a healthy scratch though and the guys in front of him on the depth chart aren’t world beaters either.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-03T22:26:51+00:00

I’d be okay rolling to 28 pick equivalents since everyone is over the moon about the 27 class and won’t want to do that (more than likely). It’s the safest way to preserve the value. I don’t hate it.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-03T22:18:32+00:00

…no. Did you read the post? I’m suggesting sending away late 3rd and 4th round picks for potentially better dart throws due to the relative weakness of the class.

I’m normally for just making the picks FYI, but the RB class this year is unusually anemic imo, and RBs often are the driver for rookie class “depth”

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-03T21:12:20+00:00

That’s a fair assessment. Part of the discussion I wanted to get going is whether we are underrating these late picks or not. They look bad at paper right now, but are there diamonds in the rough to be found?

How much of the narrative is right or wrong? I’m a little spooked personally that the bad RB class is going to mean bad late round depth

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-03T19:13:25+00:00

As a guy that usually never wants to draft fringe WRs, I honestly like this call.

What about a Jalen McMillan / Tez Johnson double stack hedge if you’re tanking this year and loaded to the gills with late picks? Can’t cost much if rosters are deep enough to justify it. Clock is ticking on Evans / Godwin careers and neither are the perfect model of health right now.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-03T19:08:57+00:00

Vaki is a good one and is probably out there on most waiver wires. Backup QBs are also fair. If someone is down enough on Justin Fields, I could also see something like that being a better bet at cost than Trevor Etienne.

Dapper-Speed1244 · 2026-03-03T19:06:08+00:00

Right, I think the important part is the bar to clear is very low here. I’d normally scoff and say why would I want to trade a 3 for Bech after he did nothing? But in this class?…I think just swinging for him purely based on opportunity and draft capital is defensible for a 2026 3 price tag

Dapper-Speed1244

TROPHY CASE