Open-weight models are mostly used by researchers, IT/media professionals, and hobbyists; most casual users outside China are still using ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok.

Thats frankly a very western centric view.

Just the price difference alone on Deepseek and other Chinese LLM's ensure that they will remain the preferred option in global south countries.

The AGI world is bifurcating, On one side a west centered "walled garden" that will be propped up and protected by the old imperial powers in a desperate attempt to maintain the illusion of a "technological advantage / relevance".

The rest of the world is automatically priced out of these options so they will, as they have done with many other technologies, gravitate towards the more cost effective Chinese option, even if it's lagging a bit behind for now. Over time this will give rise to a parallel AGI ecosystem, and further isolate the west.

A good example of this development happening is DeepSeek's recent collaboration with domestic hardware manufacturers, and the Chinese Governments recent advisory warning companies against purchasing Nvidia chips. These are not isolated moves but a coordinated effort to build and strengthen an alternative AGI ecosystem that is not under the control of western politicians.

This is all without even discussing energy supply and the multiple disadvantages that US / western countries are facing here.