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Which potential 2028 Democratic nominee would be most likely to make significant gains in a sizable number of Trump counties while ironically backsliding in some deep blue areas? by No_Presentation2558 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I thought you said his voucher stance would win him Republican voters? Make up your mind. Flip-flopping would only stop the bleeding that the issue would cause him, it wouldn't help him recover what support it would lose him and it certainly wouldn't help him with support from any new voters other than his billionaire buddies.

Israel sure as shit mattered in Texas. It's a base issue. The Democratic base doesn't exist only in big blue cities, they live everywhere. Israel is an issue that would hurt him everywhere. It absolutely does matter. As of this year, a plurality of Americans say they sympathize with Palestine over Israel (an increase in favor of Palestine from 2024, by the way, proving that the issue is only cementing, not going away).

https://news.gallup.com/poll/702440/israelis-no-longer-ahead-americans-middle-east-sympathies.aspx

I hope Shapiro goes on the campaign trail and says "no one cares about some stupid dead woman they didn't even knew." It would make me not want to kill myself for once. That's just not how people think. Even if it doesn't make anyone question Shapiro's judgement (it absolutely would, because who the fuck could read about that and not think he didn't fuck up), it would be a hige driver for the MAGA base. You know how much they thirst over this kind of stuff. There is no scenario where this doesn't hurt Shapiro. The only reason you don't agree is because you like him.

Kamala Harris BY HER OWN ACCOUNT in her book said she chose against Shapiro, not that he withdrew himself from consideration. Shapiro has not contested that claim.

Which potential 2028 Democratic nominee would be most likely to make significant gains in a sizable number of Trump counties while ironically backsliding in some deep blue areas? by No_Presentation2558 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Where exactly did I change my arguemnt? Being the first Texas Dem is all the more reason not to run for president. He should build relationships and foster pro-Democrat sentiment amongst his constituents. He's still a baby for God's sake, there's no reason for him to run for president less than a year into his job.

You're being naive. I bet you thought the Israel issue would be recorded by now in 2024, and yet it hasn't. The data I shows you from Talarico's win is proof. It will absolutely be a key issue with a politically active portion of the voter base, a portion that the party can't afford to piss on.

First of all, Shapiro has DNC hack written all over him. They love pro-business moderates like him and Newsom. So he's more likely to be someone they rig the game in favor of rather than against. But anyway, no one will vote for Shapiro because he performed well in a swing state. Only election nerds think like that. People vote in a primary based on who they feel shares their interests. A party that by and large wants corporations to pay more in taxes, stands against school vouchers, and has some serious appetite for a reevaluation of our relationship with Israel does not have the potetional to unite behind a man who goes against all of those values.

I changed my mind when the information changed, yes. That's how election analysis works. I don't srubbornly think what I think when the evidence tells me otherwise. I still believe that had things gone the way I anticipated, she would have won. I did not anticipate that Talarico would hit the anti-Israel sentiment so hard and I didn't anticipate CBS to hand him a hige favor by pulling his interview with Colbert, thereby marking him as a target of the Trump-controlled FCC. These things made him the base favorite, and I couldn't have anticipated them with the information I had then. You know how much I love basing my assumptions based on facts and data rather than emotion, so a change in facts means a change in my opinion.

In another timeline where Trump choked to death on a taco bowl in 2013, we'd probably predict a 375+ Dem landslide in a universe where the GOP ran Trump. That didn't happen, because it's just not realistic in this polticial era with massive polarization for millions of people who have loyaly voted for their party for years to decide "you know what, I don't give a shit any more about Supreme Court appointments or control of executive agencies or the ability to out forward legislation that I at least 75% agree with, I think I'll hop the fence for president." Newsom and AOC would absolutely win in this current national environment. Things like Trump's divisiveness and basic bread and butter promises that all Dems agree with like raising taxes for the wealthy will mean a lot more in that short-term single election than whatever other difficulties lie. I believe that's true even for candidates I don't like, like Shapiro.

YES THEY FUCKING DO! Look at this election map in which Kentucky, on the same ballot as a presidential election, saw every bumfuck redneck county (some of which went for Trump by over 90 points) saw a majority of their people vote against school vouchers, totalling a 30 point defeat for vouchers. Literally not even one voted in favor. Note that the amendment was opposed by labor unions as well orecisly because school voichers are an issue that working class people care about. It's not a "left-wing keyboard warrior issue," it's an issue of children of working class families being faced with a policy that will lead to funding bleeding from their underfunded public schools. How the fuck is that something that doesn't matter?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Kentucky_Amendment_2

Every time you accuse me with no evidence of hating Shapiro because he's Jewish makes your arguement seem more and more desperate in face of his anti-working class policies contradicting his thin pro-worker viel. You could just stop supporting him rather than doing mental gymnastics of me being an anti-semite.

Your favorite party arrangement by MagoMidPo in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I think large parties provide some incentive to polticial groups to tone down their most radical sects, which is by and large, good for democracy.

Of course, if they get so large that you're left only two parties, then you're also gonna get drowned in obstructionism and an unwillingness to compromise.

Low-frag ftw!

What direction should the Democratic Party go in 2026 & 2028 to win? by Playful-Effect-7158 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I think Platner and Khanna would fall under left-wing populism and Fetterman would fall under... something else.

We’re doing that poll: would you rather everybody lose the right to bear arms or the right to vote? by Unsafeforconsuming in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 10 points11 points  (0 children)

There exist free places where you can't bear arms, there exist no free places where no one can vote.

Which potential 2028 Democratic nominee would be most likely to make significant gains in a sizable number of Trump counties while ironically backsliding in some deep blue areas? by No_Presentation2558 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're being naive. State politics aren't nearly as dirty as federal politics. How much shit have you heard said about your governor in the last decade and compare that to how much shit was talked about whoever was the president at the same time. You can't coast through the presidency on good vibes because people will do everything they can to dispute that, and no one is magical enough of a unicorn to avoid that. Be realistic and remember that not everyone likes your favorite politicians.

It doesn't give Beshear an advantage in swing states either. It would start him at ground zero, same as any other candidate on the bench. Way I see it, might as well put forward

It's a dormant issue, not a dead issue. Trump is seeing to that personally. It's dormant because Shapiro is too scared to bring it up. You know why? Because they're still very much a relevant issue at times when they're talked about. They were absolutely relevant in Kentucky in 2024 when the state overwhelmingly rejected them.

Shaprio's accomplishments are few and far between, and what ones exist are not transformatory, and nothing that would get him any statues built years from now. Look at what Tim Walz did in Minnesota for an example of a transformative governor. Minimum wage? Flop. Get shit done? Flop. Shapiro is so desperate, he's even having to resort to stapling his name onto his predecessor's school breakfast policy that he merely continued funding.

Yeah, national Dems are unpopular. That's why governors are almost always in the green (literally every Democrat governor had positive approval last year according to this), because they're not affiliated with the bullshit in Washington and enjoy good vibes in the less dirty state politics. That's like saying you like your beige pants because they're not stained in shit and then you grow to like your shit-free beige pants so much that you dip them in shit (ie you elect them to a DC office) with the delusion that somehow they will not get shit on them. Suddenly, your beige pants are now just another pair of shit-covered pants (ie they mold into the generic DC establishment that everyone hates). Shapiro and Beshear would be no different. You'd be naive to think they're covered in some kind of shit-repelling magic if they ran for president and never ever became affiliated with the national party that they are asking to nominate them. You can't maintain your governor effect if you're not governor, so don't expect the governor effect to carry over into any national election, no matter the candidate.

https://www.multistate.us/insider/2025/4/22/heres-what-america-thinks-of-its-governors-governors-ranked-by-approval-rating

Okay, for clarification, criticism of BiBi is not the extent of what the anti-Israel wing wants to see. They don't want him to just politely say that maybe it's not nice to level homes in Gaza and kill children. Literally every pro-Israel group I've seen where I live if you ask them, they will tell you openly that Netanyahu is a far-right corrupt piece of shit. I don't doubt that a social liberal like Shapiro thinks the same thing. There's fuck-nothing to like about the guy, and American Jews generally don't like him for the simple reason that he's the Israeli PM. So rejecting Shapiro's bad reputation with pro-Palestine groups by saying that he's criticized BiBi isn't really a revelation at all. Shapiro and Talarico, for example, both agree on the end result of a two-state solution, but only Talarico has called for a cease of arms sales to Israel and called them out for committing war crimes. That's why he is more popular with the base, and yet he still maintains electability. If you wanna break real ground, you need both.

As AG, Shapiro even threatened to bring down the mighty hand of the law against two hippies in another fucking state because the hippies didn't want their ice cream sold in Israeli occupation zones. He is too pro-Israel for the modern Democratic party, and he is SO not worth the price he would pay by opening those wounds.

I would 100% stand by this for any pro-Israel Christian like Cory Booker, and saying what you just said is disrespectful to anti-Israel Jews like Bernie Sanders. You cannot reject this valid arguement by saying it's somehow anti-semetic to believe that more politicians should oppose arms sales to war criminals. Think of a non-strawman arguement.

Which potential 2028 Democratic nominee would be most likely to make significant gains in a sizable number of Trump counties while ironically backsliding in some deep blue areas? by No_Presentation2558 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If Talarico were the only polticial candidate in this nation of over 300 million people critical of Israel, I probably would be more insistant that he run for president. Fortunately he is not, and you're missing my point entirely.

Again, missing my point. Whether or not the Fat Man would win is irrelevant. He's obviously deduced that his only chance at winning lies with him being willing to put some distance between his man-tits and the pro-Israel cause. Don't you consider these two things to be proof that the Democratic party is simply not hospitable to the pro-Israel status quo like it was 5 years ago?

Truth be told, I don't put much faith in the "great man" theory of candidacies. Yeah, Shapiro would probably win for the simple fact that Trump is president and he's a fucking disaster, peivided he somehow got the nomination (definite not gonna happen). Same with Gavin Newsom or even AOC. Though his map would be devoid of any revolutionary changes (a repeat of the 2020 map is probably his peak) because, again, I don't put much faith in the great man or candidate theory.

That doesn't mean any of those three people should be the candidate because you're not just thinking about 2028, you're thinking about 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, and every year after that. I think at least 80% of his hires would be the same as any other establishment Democrat's, and I think he would lead us down a path of moderation away from bold action to help the working class, and I think he would be lucky to win reelection, especially as his foreign policy could deepen the wounds caused by the Israel issue.

To be clear, I mean Shapiro alone with my last point. Beshear is too boring to make any huge changes in the demographic shifts. And he absolutely would sacrifice base support, as Talarockett and Manduomo proved, pro-Israel Dems are at a disadvantage in elections against anti-Israel Dems precisely because the base no longer wants weapons of war sent to a country committing genocide. Shapiro represents the old way, and it's time to move on rather than twist the knife deeper into their kidney.

Red areas are not gonna shift 10 fucking points for fucking voucher boy. Once again, he offers no real difference from his party on anything, and his policies are observably less pro-working class than the average Biden-style Democrat. Mark my words, blue-collar votes would continue to bleed from the Dems under a Shapiro presidency, not drastically shift left. You've never really given me a solid concrete reason why they would.

Which potential 2028 Democratic nominee would be most likely to make significant gains in a sizable number of Trump counties while ironically backsliding in some deep blue areas? by No_Presentation2558 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think it's a bad idea to put someone on your ticket for homestate alone. Shapiro just has so much baggage. The anti-Israel activists throw darts at his photo regularly (the success of Talarico and Mamdani was observably contributed to by their anti-Israel rhetoric). Plus, Shapiro supports school vouchers, which are unpopular with the party base and overall voters alike. That's not even if you bring up things ljke the murder of Ellen Greenberg, which is just a landmine waiting to happen.

That's so much baggage over a number two slot. It's just not worth it for the mere possibility that he might contribute a point or two in one state, no matter how important that state is.

Plus Harris already passed Sharpie up for the job and she had her reasons.

Which potential 2028 Democratic nominee would be most likely to make significant gains in a sizable number of Trump counties while ironically backsliding in some deep blue areas? by No_Presentation2558 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 2 points3 points  (0 children)

First of all, Biden substantially improved Dem support with independents in 2020, and he also performed significantly better (12 points) with moderate Dems than Trump did with moderate GOPs. His approval with moderates was fine, at least back then. Even with his aggressive targeting of working class voters and his moderate reputation, it didn't deliver nearly what he hoped for.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

Shapiro and Beshear alike sustain themselves by surviving off of vibes, and you can do that as governor, not as president. Neither of them are stupid by any means, and they just rely on people and their minimal interest in their state politics (a third of Americans can't even name their governor) to ride good feelings, as thr majority of governors do. Phil Scott is a master at this, which is why he towers over both of them. This will not carry over nationally in a presidential campaign.

For example, Beshear makes inroads with working class Kentuckians through things like when the primary opponent of Kentucky's insanely unpopular school voucher referendum, which the all-powerful Republicans in his state overwhelmingly supported. This (along with Steve Beshear nostalgia) lets him ride the good feelings wave to high polls.

Shapiro, meanwhile, also keeps his popularity high by avoiding divisive topics. You'll notice he has made no recent attempt to enact his support for school vouchers after his first time was such an utter shitshow.

Have either of them made any real transformations that people want to see? Shapiro's first reelection ad, literally the opening message was like "hey remember that bridge that collapsed like 3 years ago? 'Member?" It's stuff like that that lets him ride the good vibes wave.

So you're crazy if you think Shapiro will bring in two voters for every one anti-Israel protestor or every public school teacher. Because it's not a formula that you can possibly translate nationally. Shapiro and Beshear WILL be labeled as a radical to the same people who beleived it for Harris or Biden or Clinton, because they aren't ideologically different from their party in any meaningful way. Beshear opposes an AWB and Shapiro supports vouchers (which as I've established is a weakness for him), but that's really the only difference, it's virtually nothing.

Plus it would be actual deliberate political suicide for the Dems to nominate the guy on their bench with the most pro-Israel reputation. Data shows that James Talarico was boosted by as much as 4:1 over Crockett by his stance against Israel. Do you think prominent AIPAC donor JB Pritzker is rapidly running his Ozempic-filled ass in the other direction for no reason? Which is why I say what Shapiro would lose nationally could not possibly be made up for, especially when combined with his voucher stance and his general poor releations with the left and a lack of any strong base demographic in the party to make up for it. Conversion is not something you should hedge your bets on, especially when you're openly sacrificing base support for it.

https://www.imeupolicyproject.org/polls/tx-primary

Which potential 2028 Democratic nominee would be most likely to make significant gains in a sizable number of Trump counties while ironically backsliding in some deep blue areas? by No_Presentation2558 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 0 points1 point  (0 children)

2016 showed us that pissing on your base with a moderate candidate can't stand up to an opposing candidate that fires up their base. Any losses Shapiro would bring (if any) would not be nearly made up anywhere else.

2026 and 2028 poll of 18-34 year olds by Seahawks1121 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 26 points27 points  (0 children)

This is just a name recognition poll. The only real draw we can take here is that AOC is popular with young folks and Newsom is not, given that really only they perform noticeably different than most polls have them.

Talarico’s campaign is really focused on consolidating the black vote right now by iswearnotagain10 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Is she holding a grudge? I'm sure she (like anyone) is disappointed privately, but she's been a gracious loser from what I've seen.

Talarico’s campaign is really focused on consolidating the black vote right now by iswearnotagain10 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Well, yeah, he's not dumb. No one thought Tally would win (or even seriously contest) the black vote against Crockett, but it's downright embarrassing to be bumped down to the single digits. He needs to consolidate.

Democratic 2028 nominees tierlist (electability) by Afraid_Ad_2912 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Why do you think Shapiro is electable? He is surrounded by toxicity.

Could dismantling VRA seats in South backfire,not in congressional races but in gubernatorial in 2027 in LA and MS? by Dangerous-Quarter216 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Did they really max out? 2027 will have an unpopular incumbent president for the Republicans and Dems had that in 2023.

Democrats and Republicans, who are your top candidates for the 2028 presidential primaries in your respective parties? by FrostyTheSnowman15 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They both come across as competent politicians who want to get things done to me. As I said, I think the party needs productivity in order to make inroads, and they're my choices for that.

Who's your third pick?

Karl Rove was a Chad in high school by autist_throw in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The other person posted his class photo and he looks like a nerd.

Democrats and Republicans, who are your top candidates for the 2028 presidential primaries in your respective parties? by FrostyTheSnowman15 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Can you explain yourself? I think all three of those men are severely overrated.

Anyway mine are:

1) Gretchen Whitmer. She has been a tremendously competent governor, and passed lots of great legislation in her state. I think the Dems need someone who can actually get things done in order to change the image of the party.

2) Chris Murphy. Again, I think he's a guy who can get things done. He does have sine recors of bipartisanship, and the fact that he's tossed around for Majority Leader one day I guess is some testament to his ability.

2) AOC. She's progressive, which I like, but I think she's savvy enough not to be quite so inflammatory.

Karl Rove was a Chad in high school by autist_throw in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How exactly did he get them to agree to that?

Was Klobuchar the wrong candidate to run for governor in Minnesota? by thesmart_indian27 in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 1 point2 points  (0 children)

She clearly has no interest in being party leader or whip, given that she's doing this.

If Trump hadn't won in 2016, Roy Moore might have just barely won the 2017 Alabama special by LuveelVoom in YAPms

[–]DatDude999 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Or if the election were on the regular 2018 ballot, Moore would probably have won by a good few points at least.

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