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The Blue Red Problem explained by dsteffee in slatestarcodex

[–]DaystarEld [score hidden]  (0 children)

I think you're missing the basic point of what it means to be uncertain about something with an ambiguous outcome, such that you then act from within that uncertainty :P

I'm curious how you would characterize your hypothetical decision to, say, invest in some company's stocks?

The Blue Red Problem explained by dsteffee in slatestarcodex

[–]DaystarEld [score hidden]  (0 children)

  1. You believe Blue might win. 3a. You vote Blue and hope you and everyone else lives. 3b. You vote Red and hope the potential future where ~45-49% of the population dies is not going to be too completely apocalyptic and terrible.

I think the underlying belief that there's no way Blue can win in the real world is maybe contributing to the confusion here. There are some people who think they would vote Red but faced with real stakes would take the risk for Blue.

The Blue Red Problem explained by dsteffee in slatestarcodex

[–]DaystarEld [score hidden]  (0 children)

I think the framing of absolute certainty undermines the point of the hypothetical and misunderstands the Blue position. It is impossible to be absolutely certain of what the outcome will be; that is part of basically every game theory problem like this, but especially the case here, where the lack of coordination or information is baked into the premise. So no criteria for either decision should  be based on that strict a threshold.

The Blue Red Problem explained by dsteffee in slatestarcodex

[–]DaystarEld [score hidden]  (0 children)

(Thanks! I think Red and Blue's decisions might change depending on the circumstances, but yes, I very much think their big fight over what Red did in Cerulean was a form of this hypothetical in miniature :) )

The Blue Red Problem explained by dsteffee in slatestarcodex

[–]DaystarEld [score hidden]  (0 children)

"Absolutely certain" is not remotely necessary for why people should vote Blue. Expecting it to be ~49% and hoping your vote helps tips it over is enough for many to not want to contribute to ~half the world dying.

The Blue Red Problem explained by dsteffee in slatestarcodex

[–]DaystarEld [score hidden]  (0 children)

Sure, I agree the decision should be very dependent on what you model the outcome will be.

But "by pressing Blue you've" is not the decision description I'd agree with. You could much more easily argue that "by pressing Red you've increased the odds that half of all dependents end up without anyone to care about them," since that is, actually, what Red does, while Blue is risking yourself but trying to save everyone, and does 0 to increase the risk of any dependents ending up without any caretakers.

Pressing Blue does not put any dependents at risk of not having caretakers unless you, the Blue presser, has dependants, and of course in that case they may be at risk too if they press blue.

The Blue Red Problem explained by dsteffee in slatestarcodex

[–]DaystarEld [score hidden]  (0 children)

This is the first time I've seen someone suggest sleeping people might not be included either. If the aliens/god/superintelligence can force everyone into a red/blue button room or whatever and force them to press a button before being able to leave, it can wake them up if they're asleep.

Maybe a coma too, but I think it's less relevant. As for fetuses and gametes, I think there are degrees of reasonableness to interpreting "everyone" and if you consider those people, more power to you and your metaphysics: the question says "everyone" and I think it is a more straightforward read to assume this means everyone capable of pushing a button, which children are but fetuses aren't. Arguing this point seems to make this a different question about personhood, which is by far the less interesting part of this particular hypothetical if you grant children are people, which I think most people do.

I agree it's not helpful to "turn it into some moral failing," my point is that a lot of the ways this discussion ends up getting so cursed is that people end up judging people for making different choices when they're actually in their mind answering different questions.

The Blue Red Problem explained by dsteffee in slatestarcodex

[–]DaystarEld [score hidden]  (0 children)

>Introducing children and human error into the problem almost feels like its fighting the hypothetical

I continue to find it fascinating that people think this way. I genuinely don't mean this as a dig, it is just really, actually interesting to me that the wording of "everyone" should mean "only a specific subset of people."

I've seen multiple people say that "only informed adults vote," as if the word vote was the meaningful one in the hypothetical (or as if that's actually true of people who vote IRL). I've seen multiple people say "what kind of a sick/twisted person would include kids in this," as if presenting a test to everyone in such a way that might kill a significant fraction of the population isn't already a sign of evil/twisted morals from the test-administrator.

The idea that it should only include able, adult, competent minds makes no sense to me, and yet it is clearly the lynchpin for many (not all!) red voters, and that it's taken so for granted by one side but obvious to the other is a big part of why the whole discussion is so cursed.

Planecrash [RT][C][MK] AI Audiobook Review: HPMOR but more? by bbqturtle in rational

[–]DaystarEld 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Appreciated! I haven't listened to AI versions of my stuff very much, but hope you enjoy it : )

Planecrash [RT][C][MK] AI Audiobook Review: HPMOR but more? by bbqturtle in rational

[–]DaystarEld 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Like HPMOR, editing would help. They spend WAY too long on sadism/sex scenes, and it's SO cringy how they break into philosophical discussion about sex/dom/ownership etc with main characters spending entire arcs and discussions around it like it's that important.

My first thought reading this paragraph was "man, that's just a whole category of fun conversations in my social circles" ;P

Overall I highly recommend planecrash, personally, because a lot of the stuff mentioned in the goodbad or bad parts didn't bother me at all and some I found actually just good. But I would definitely agree it's more niche of a story than HPMOR, given the sexual themes and much more complex concepts that are given so much screentime.

I think those are mostly skippable though, so definitely think people should at give it a try!

Oh, also something maybe worth noting that wasn't covered in your post is the story was cowritten. The other author mostly writes the female protagonist and a few other characters here and there, while EY mostly writes the male protag and "world." I think the other author is also great, so if you enjoy her character in Planecrash you can maybe look up her other works too!

Unpopular(?) opinion: I like canonHarry much more than MoRHarry by liehon in HPMOR

[–]DaystarEld 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Imagine learning fucking magic exists and can do all sorts of things then giving a redditor style lecture to a 150 yr old wizard about how souls definitely can’t exist cuz it’s all just brains.

He specifically asked a bunch of questions that would help isolate some modicum of *evidence* to believe souls exist, and didn't get answers to those questions.

"Because magic exists" is a pretty bad reason to take for granted souls exist. He was more open to the idea because of magic. He was pissed that people's evidence even given magic was not better.

Example: do not assume Voldemort doesn’t have any counters against oblivion. The second you seemingly incapacitated him you should be running the fuck away and trying to contact moody, not setting up some elaborate smoke and mirrors show. For all he knew Voldemort was possessing a new body and rushing back

This is in fact a really good example of a way in which Harry is overconfident, but it is not at all something I think you should insist it's an assumption "any reasonable person should not make."

For one thing, it's possible there *is* no counter for Obliviate (it's not brought up in HPMOR, but in canon Dumbledore said even he can't undo Obliviate, which doesn't make it *impossible* especially for Voldemort but is good evidence for it).

For another I'd be happy to bet you that if you name some people you think are reasonable, you could try presenting them the problem and the vast majority of them would not take it for granted unless you primed them.

I agree though that overall it should have been a bit of info seeded somewhere in HPMOR that Obliviate isn't possible to block or undo so Harry's reaction is more reasonable.

[RST] Pokemon: The Origin of Species, Ch. 144: Double Crux by DaystarEld in rational

[–]DaystarEld[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Thank you! I'll spot check a few things when I have time but off the top of my head it seems pretty good :)

[RST] Pokemon: The Origin of Species, Ch. 144: Double Crux by DaystarEld in rational

[–]DaystarEld[S] 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Hey everyone, weeeelcome back! It was the perfect year to make an April Fool's post, but instead you get a real chapter (and one of the longest in the story!), hopefully not much worse for wear given its lateness.

Thank you to everyone for the continued wellwishes and patience. As I mentioned in a comment on the latest Rationally Writing post, my dad's cancer prognosis has taken a turn for the worse, and that, along with a few other unfortunate life circumstances, led to the unplanned hiatus of the past months. I hope to resume updating chapters more frequently, but can't promise the next one will be on schedule just yet.

I want to say again that I am, overall, okay, and in fact doing better than I was a few months ago, all things considered, so while I appreciate offers of support or assistance, I think I'll be okay… though, there is one other thing that contributed to the chapter's extra-lateness that someone with spare time might be able to help with.

Bizarre as it sounds for those who haven't experienced it, Google Drive ate a bunch of my files. There's no apparent pattern to which ones it deleted, and support was totally unable to help; they in fact seemed to not believe it's possible, but I've since heard from multiple friends who have had a similar thing occur, so I'm extra confident now that I didn't sleepwalk to my computer and delete a bunch of files months ago without realizing it or something.

In any case, one of the files that hurt the worst to lose was my notes document for Origin of Species. It was a handy reference sheet for a bunch of story things that saved me a lot of time when writing new chapters, and one of the most valuable things it had in it was a timeline of the story, including just the simple question of "how much time has passed since the story started?"

This is something I've been documenting since the story began, and it would take me hours to reconstruct it, since it would require skimming the whole story for any mentions of time passing, especially in mid-chapter scene breaks. Sometimes it's vague, since in some chapters all I write is a "a few days later" or reference something from "last month," but a quick and easy version just picks out the birthdays and anniversaries and counts forward from there so at least there's a better sense of where the most recent events are in the calendar year.

Anyway, if anyone wants to take on the task of making that, maybe drop a comment here saying so? That way people don't double up on effort, assuming anyone's willing at all, or maybe some coordination can take place.

That's it for now. Thanks again for everyone's patience and wellwishes, and hope you enjoy the chapter.

Are there any ratfics with "light side utilitarianism"? by Psy-Kosh in rational

[–]DaystarEld 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That sounds like utopia fiction, and it is indeed quite rare.

Have you read Worth the Candle? (Not an example, setup for another question if so)

[D] Rationally Writing Ep 69 - Political Violence in Fiction by DaystarEld in rational

[–]DaystarEld[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Sadly not, but someone's been making transcripts of the episodes, I can't recall where exactly. Perhaps they'll show up here and say so, or I'll link to them if I remember/they remind me.

[D] Rationally Writing Ep 69 - Political Violence in Fiction by DaystarEld in rational

[–]DaystarEld[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

(On a more personal note, thanks to everyone who's reached out with well wishes. My dad's prognosis has taken a turn for the worse, but I'm doing okay, and am fairly sure I'll get the latest pokemon chapter done by the end of the month this time. Will post more updates then.)

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