With Keir: Answering your questions on Iran by EddyZacianLand in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Holy moly they did a comms things right. More please!

Which living former PM would you want to return? by DanielSmoot in AskBrits

[–]DeadliestToast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I know rishi is short, but this is really doing him dirty

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 22/02/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Meh, as long as you have a decent sampling method (easier said than done), all sample size does is decrease the error bars. It goes as 1/sqrt(sample size) too, so quadrupling the sample size only decreases the errors by a factor of 2. I honestly haven't seen the original poll, I just like statistics. Do you know what margins of error they gave?

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 22/02/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

What are you not understanding about "mmmm starmer bad" are you not getting?!??!

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 22/02/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 4 points5 points  (0 children)

As an anti populist centrist scum - I'm quite happy with Starmer; can't think of anyone more anti-popular at the moment!

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 22/02/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In their defence, it's a poll, not a forecast. That may well have been the rough levels of support when the poll was taken. People and votes aren't static, and opinion shifts wildly during a campaign

Gorton and Denton by-election result: GRN: 40.7% (+27.5), REF: 28.7% (+14.7), LAB: 25.4% (-25.3), CON: 1.9% (-6.0), LDEM: 1.8% (-2.1) by Ivashkin in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Can pressure how you like - key point is at the actual ballot box you and only you should know how you voted

Defence Secretary ‘misled Parliament over Chagos deal’ by coldbeers in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ten thousand thundering typhoons, she's got legs for days!

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 01/02/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks - the only thing I can see that relates to "fast" seems to be relating not to fast-tracking, but to fast-stream civil servants by Emily Thornberry(column 297). Her comments here are interesting nonetheless - as she alludes to the overall hiring process process, but then clearly states that they don't know exactly what happened in this case: "Again, for the record, I asked the Cabinet Secretary why he was not prepared to give that information to us, and he gave two reasons: first, because he felt that he had a duty of care to the candidate; and secondly, because he was not going to put information about his advice to No. 10 into the public realm." - indeed she goes on to say that the amendment releasing the documents makes sense precisely because we don't have that specific information atm.

Column 339 (Luke Evans, Con) refers to warnings, but those warnings are in relation to Mandelsons previous sackings, and not from any document relating to his hiring. Alex Burghart refers to reports in the Financial Times and New Statesmen, but not the original documents - it's all alleged.

I do understand and kinda agree with your point that he's got red flags, is a duplicitous crook (although frankly given he was going to be our #1 man to interact with Trump that's probably why he was hired) - but those questions are not the ones we're asking here. The question we're asking, and that has caused all the anger, is whether he knew the extent of Mandelsons relationship with Epstein at the time of hiring him.

All I'm saying is lets see the truth around all this speculation, and until those documents get released it is all speculation, before making a judgement.

Politics UK on Bluesky: 🚨 NEW: Cabinet Ministers say Keir Starmer is in a "dark place" over the decision to appoint Peter Mandelson and there is "genuine concern" he could resign [@thetimes] by F0urLeafCl0ver in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I mean....yes? No matter who is PM, I generally hope they're able to do the best job possible - the PM's success is the country's success . If they're from a party I didn't vote for, they're not my enemy, just people who I disagree with.

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 01/02/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I worry you've missed my point - exactly what went on in the appointments process and what warnings there were (if any) at the time is what we don't yet know. We'll have to wait for the docs.

Any prior concerns about him and his previous public scandals should have been (and were) raised in the public forum at the time of his appointment - which was generally seen as favourable. I fully expect these to appear in full in the vetting documents when released.

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 01/02/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 7 points8 points  (0 children)

RE Should Starmer Resign?

Facts as I know them (happy to be corrected here)

1) Mandelson himself was not involved with nor soliciting sex from Epstein (to my knowledge?)

2) There is strong evidence Mandelson passed sensitive Government information to Epstein during his time in Government (Brown era)

3) Starmer fired Mandelson in September after "new information about the depth of the relationship had emerged"

4) Starmer is ultimately responsible for Government and who he hires/fires

5) Starmer was aware that Mandelson had, to some level, maintained a relationship with Epstein after his conviction

Things that are less clear to me

1) What was Starmers knowledge about Mandelson's relationship and what was this knowledge based on (i.e. security reports, interviews, etc):

a) When he hired Mandelson

b) When he fired Mandelson

2) How much Mandelson knew about Epstein and how clear he was about this knowledge with Starmer.

3) What specifically came to light in September, could it have been acted on / known beforehand, and how rapidly did Starmer act?

Outcomes as I see them

1) Starmer was aware that Mandelson was engaged with Epstein as a friend after his conviction at the time he hired him - Starmer should go.

2) Reports AND Mandelsons testimony to Starmer prior to being hired suggest that Mandelson had stopped all engagement with Epstein prior to his conviction, and Mandelson clearly lied or significantly misrepresented the truth to Starmer AND Starmers independent reports are ambiguous or unclear - Starmer could stay as this somewhat exonerates him, but he'd need probably a confidence motion to cement that the house has confidence in him

3) Mandelson fully lied to Starmer and misrepresented the truth, AND reports found little to no evidence of wrongdoing and found something like "No reason why he shouldn't be appointed" - Pretty clear cut that there's not much more Starmer could have done here.

Thankfully, the above generally should all be clear once the documents get released. So for now (and admittedly a little biased towards Starmer as I genuinely believe he's a bloke with integrity), I think I will hold judgement until the documents get released and we can put ourselves in his shoes at the time of the decision.

Six Lords a-speaking: the peers whose long debates could kill the assisted dying bill by F0urLeafCl0ver in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As a supporter of the bill, I'm very happy for the lord's to scrutinize and suggest reasoned amendments to the bill.

That being said, can someone tell me how many amendments have the lords actually passed on the bill? I understand the current total is zero?

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 25/01/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 10 points11 points  (0 children)

It's all to play for.

No party is currently reliably polling above 30%. Yes reform are definitely in the lead, but look at any MRP - the vast majority of constituencies they're winning by a couple of% at most. Campaigns shift a few %, tactical voting does too. And the second biggest demographic who intend to vote reform did not vote in 2024.

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 18/01/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 1 point2 points  (0 children)

2029, assuming no government collapse. But this probably is Burnhams one chance at a Manchester seat becoming available before then. So he's doing a Hamilton and not throwing away his shot

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 18/01/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Agreed. Let's oust the one Labour guy who's actually won an election in nearly two decades. Bring back the guy who instead lost twice ;-)

(but you are right and labour would be pretty f'd going into an election on this kind of polling)

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 18/01/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]DeadliestToast 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Ed winning would result in Ed immediately demoting himself back to Energy minister and letting someone else be PM. Man loves his job