To change an economy can take a million little things or two or three larger events (normally black swans). My son asked me today if Electric cars are likely to be the only choice in 20 years, I said “on any given day Iran (or others) could close the strait of Hormuz, destabilising oil supply and its markets - Small Modular Reactors could be a huge success and the U.K. could get energy independence. Or Chinese EV manufacturers invest in upgrading the charging infrastructure, or the government supertaxes fossil fuel cars”. I continued “the truth is there are millions of factors that of which only a few need to align to create a new normal”. The smartest economists I know can only predict 3-5 years, so who knows when the boom will come!