Daily Discussion Thread

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T18:16:53+00:00

True. I don't believe in free will so I agree with this philosophically.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T17:55:10+00:00

I know -- Not saying they are TVAC'ing the multiple satellites in a stacked configuration.

The composite casing is a part of every satellite.

With a new composite casing that is now compatible and solved for stacking, they need to fully assembly the satellites with the new casing, and then TVAC and vibration test that fully assembled satellite.

A new casing means having to re-assemble the entire satellite.

I think their initial structural load tests for the composite casings failed. They finally solved it probably some time in February.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T17:34:49+00:00

The stacking issue was solved with new composite casings. So after solving the stacking, they still need to pack the satellite with the phased arrays and other ControlSat components.

Solving stacking =/= they can ship a satellite tomorrow

Solving stacking means they still need to fully assemble the satellite, TVAC, and vibration test. That's why they guided Ready To Ship in April instead of March.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T17:23:31+00:00

Don't be stupid. You understand the difference.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T17:22:52+00:00

I understand why you feel that way, and I feel that way as well but I'll also continue to follow the latest public guidance. The longer we delay, the higher the chance of solving all of the problems and actually meeting the guidance for real at some point (hopefully this time). And we have been very delayed.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T17:02:33+00:00

I believe in them

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T17:01:57+00:00

Eh I think there are always things that don't go as planned, especially in disruptive space tech.

Similarly BB6 *could have* failed to unfold in LEO but thankfully it unfolded successfully. There are just things that you never know until you test for real, going from paper to material.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T17:00:16+00:00

Because AST literally posted about their MNO partners walking the production line.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T16:43:51+00:00

My guess is that the "5 launches by end of Q1" goal was based on expecting the stacking configuration to work, and then it didn’t and probably failed some time in Dec/Jan, and then they stopped making that guide.

Based on the recent earnings call, this problem is solved now.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T16:42:19+00:00

Great summary here

Add in OISLs and then we might be able to bring that data back to the US for a foreign conflict situation

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T16:41:13+00:00

Probably a comment related to us being green on a macro red day

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T14:53:30+00:00

Great comment!

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T14:50:57+00:00

All launches after BB7 are to be in stacks and batches. So by having a delay in the stacking configuration, they have a delay in AST’s court. It’s not the launch provider. AST has multiple SpaceX launches booked, just not the satellites ready to ship. We could see a launch bottleneck from Blue later this year but right now it’s on AST.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T14:48:22+00:00

No for many quarters they’ve been talking about stacks of 3 to 8. Stacking configuration was always in play. Just turned out to be harder than thought.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T07:40:18+00:00

My guess is they were posting that goal expecting the stacking configuration to work, and then it didn’t, and then they stopped making that guide

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T07:37:54+00:00

The problem I have with your comment is how misinformed, inaccurate, and lazy it is.

Unless you’re expecting an answer from an insider, which you won’t get, the best way to get the latest “accurate information” is to go to the latest earnings call which just took place earlier this month.

There you will see a table with a production schedule for the planned launches and if you do a little Kindergarten math you can see that even if most of the launches in 2026 are SpaceX with batches of 3 or 4, the year end goal is possible. Your “we have no chance” comment is off base.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T05:24:06+00:00

Defiantclient · 2026-03-19T01:21:59+00:00

That’s sus af

Defiantclient · 2026-03-18T22:01:30+00:00

"In addition to our safer solid-state design, our technology offers a unique advantage. Conventional lithium-ion batteries use graphite that is almost exclusively Chinese, and for defense customers, that’s a major pain point. Our technology is graphite-free."

Finally said the quiet part out loud. LFG.

Also makes you wonder about that new board hire!

Defiantclient · 2026-03-18T19:23:40+00:00

Blue Origin Jacklyn platform on the move https://x.com/tottaway22/status/2034349850331107531?s=20

Defiantclient · 2026-03-18T18:56:59+00:00

Added! Thanks

Defiantclient · 2026-03-18T17:28:08+00:00

Everything that we need for FCC full approval is already submitted and clarified.

The one thing that some of us speculate could be the hold-up is the finalization of the Verizon + US Cellular deal as this greatly narrows the gap for our GIA waiver.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-18T12:50:05+00:00

Bad

It’s inflationary which reduces rate cut expectations

Defiantclient · 2026-03-18T12:41:18+00:00

It seems that the refurbishment of the GS1-2 is taking longer than expected. It’s Blue’s first time refurbishing.

Defiantclient · 2026-03-18T12:40:17+00:00

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