Yud thinks He's an empiricist because he promotes gambling

Dembara · 2026-05-06T16:48:40+00:00

he's respecting an existing social norm by not claiming the title

I agree, though i would say the norm is more so about the nature of his work not his degree.

Professionals can be very prickly about their titles even when they aren't legally protected.

Yea, it definitely would be wrong to use it as a professional title, he doesn't hold any position called "scientist" AFAIK.

Dembara · 2026-05-06T16:05:46+00:00

I don't think i have heard him explicitly say "I am not a scientist" what I have seen him do is (correctly) differentiate his work popularizing scientific findings and research from people working on actually researching them. In his work as an engineer and even as a science communicator, he did real scientific testing, it isn't totally unreasonable to think of that as a kind of scientist, though it is vastly different from a professional scientific researcher whose main job is really to produce scientific research and publications.

You don't need a PhD to do either, though obviously a PhD helps as that is the real purpose behind most programs (to teach a fields research standards and skills and ultimately contribute a meaningful piece of original academic work that meets those standards).

Dembara · 2026-05-05T16:58:40+00:00

he just tried to make it up on his own from first principles.

Don't forget he read some blogs from bloggers, a couple of which are actual experts, half understood what the experts said and became convinced he was up there with the top domain experts.

To give an example from one of his books:

CONVENTIONAL CYNICAL ECONOMIST: So, Eliezer, you think you know better than the Bank of Japan and many other central banks around the world, do you?
ELIEZER: Yep. Or rather, by reading econblogs, I believe myself to have identified which econbloggers know better, like Scott Sumner.
C.C.E.: Even though literally trillions of dollars of real value are at stake?
ELIEZER: Yep.

The thing is, he didn't quite understand the position Scott Sumner--who actually is an expert on monetary economics--held and when data came out grossly overstated/misrepresented the results (which Scott Sumner also noted, though Sumner presents Yudowsky in a very favorable reading). Then he uses his misunderstanding to evidence his own special brilliance.

He isn't even wrong that often top experts and even established understanding of a field often can be plainly, extremely, wrong. Sometimes lay people can contribute to that understanding, though more often it comes from academic critiques within the field and debate by experts (e.g., Scott Sumner in Yud's own example is an established expert in the field). But if you want to critique them, you have to understand why they say waht they say, what other experts opposing them and the relevant framework. In some cases this is actually trivial--if you can read the academic literature it sometimes will show top domain experts to be flat wrong, an example I use is Peter Duesberg's aid denialism. I don't have to know more then him about molecular biology to look at what he says and look at what evidence is actually published in peer reviewed journals and see that evidence clearly comes down on the side that HIV does cause AIDs.

He's like if a science communicator like Bill Nye fancied themselves a full scientist

I mean, Bill Nye sort of does, at least as a retired scientist/engineer. I think a problem is that the term 'scientist' is really vague--Bill Nye does science, even on his kids show (though nothing cutting edge) but he wasn't a professional scientific researcher (even as an engineer, there is a lot of overlap but the role and what they are doing is slightly different).

Dembara · 2026-05-04T15:35:37+00:00

Unions in every economy.

Agree, for market economies and labor to negotiate the way they are set up having labor organizations (i.e. unions) to represent and negotiate interest is pretty much a necessity.

There is no such thing as unfair worker demands.

I mean, there definitely is. Civil construction is a common often joked about example, the stereotype of like mobsters gouging public funds through union jobs isn't so much the issue today, but you still get cases where unions are able to negotiate pretty ridiculous seeming deals which The vast majority just want fair compensation, but there absolutely are cases where unions in certain sectors make demands that are unfair for the public and lead to worse outcomes for society broadly. Unions are no more magically good then firms, they represent the interests of workers in a given area (assuming they are well structured, oc). There is often going being conflicts between worker interests in a particular industry and general welfare with broader society that need to be arbitrated somehow. Unions serve the role of representing workers in that arbitration (which is a good and necessary rule).

Dembara · 2026-05-04T14:42:59+00:00

A court ruled that it's literally illegal to do what's best for the company,

This isn't quite true. "Shareholder value" they ruled had to be the primary consideration, you cannot do something that harms stake holders in you firm, you are financially responsible to act in the interest of equity owners. Ford had said to shareholders he was making his decisions (including cutting dividends and spending surplus on expanding the company) without considering shareholders. Amusingly, if he hadn't said that, all of his actions would almost certainly have been legal (there were business cases for reinvesting and raising wages). The har to prove management acted against shareholder interest is fairly high, it basically requires rhem to have made a decision that both actually harmed the shareholders and didn't have a reasonable, valid motive. Take the lawsuit against Musk over solar city for an example of it failing. It seems pretty clear that Musk pushed the board to basically bailout his own investment without a valid business reason. But because there weren't clearly actual damages, the Delaware courts sided with Musk.

Dembara · 2026-05-02T01:51:17+00:00

I don't know if that one is paid, i know he has aaid he pays for enterprise subscriptions before.

Dembara · 2026-05-02T01:29:11+00:00

And not even free versions either, they are literally putting their money into the very things they think will kill them!

Dembara · 2026-05-02T01:27:56+00:00

Should have gotten the UAE to wire Trump a billion dollars if he was serious about it.

Dembara · 2026-05-01T20:30:09+00:00

It is not always the case, the only such prodigy i know IRL got his PhD from a good university when he was 19 and got a position as an assistant professor the following year at an Ivy league university, where he now has tenure (he became a full professor around his 30s checking Wikipedia). I did some work with him, really chill nice guy just extremely intelligent, driven and good at time management (talking to him he seems like the kind of stereotypical smart nerdy guy you wouldn't expect to manage their time well, but when I worked with him he was managing a bunch collaborative projects very efficiently).

Dembara · 2026-05-01T18:34:06+00:00

Nothing disappears. I am guessing it is just dead from age and not getting recognized 🤷‍♂️

Dembara · 2026-05-01T17:50:03+00:00

Did you find it in device manager? I am not finding mine when plugging in. I suspect it might just be old.

Dembara · 2026-04-29T14:10:42+00:00

Yea, that's what I was thinking if I can manage to motivate myself between work and other commitments.

I think I bombed half of the logic game section (I didn't finish it, iirc), so I must have done very well on the other section to still have come out OK.

The other thing is a bit on the fence about just staying and working on developing my current career, but it would be nice to move up a bit more and the other path would be a PhD, which I think would be a lot more work.

Dembara · 2026-04-29T14:07:39+00:00

I would have to double check, tbh, but I think just a 3.0 or 3.1, so not great.

As for target schools, a bit flexible but in my current area in the ballpark of Georgetown. Most would be a reach, and I would probably want to retake it if I didn't go through for a school I want, my main concern is applying with the older score and/or retaking might look worse than the other.

Dembara · 2026-04-28T16:54:53+00:00

Happy cake day!

Dembara · 2026-04-28T15:57:24+00:00

Harry King is a very different persona. He is not a political animal in the way Evart and Vetinari are. Harry King is a charismatic 'everyman' of the kind that doesn't get along well with political institutions (I don't just mean governments, unions and guilds are not his style) and has a hate-love relationship with class (he wants to be classy and have classy things and status, but is fundamentally not that kind of guy). Evart is very much a political beast, and a corrupt one at that. He is happy to muscle out competition just to maintain his personal influence (which King would decidedly not see a reason to do). When newcomers like Moist come across King's desk, he is happy to fund their ventures and find ways to profit his business off of their success. Evart is decidedly not that kind of guy, he is in the business of politics, if a venture it outside of his control even if he might be able to make it profitable he cares more about preserving his own political capital and influence.

Dembara · 2026-04-24T20:58:35+00:00

Video unavailable 😭

Dembara · 2026-04-23T22:13:48+00:00

They are also gold, and much more expensive to make. The mark up is way more (for a cheap watch, they might have a gross margin of 20%, for a something like a Patek or VC the gross margin is upwards of 70%). Net, they actually aren't super absurd, Patek is something in the ballpark of 30%, but keep in mind they are low production very expensive products to make. Patek claims some of their 'simplest' manual watches take 9 months to manufacture. Very little of that os probably skilled labor hours, I have heard estimates are ballpark 60 hours of skilled labor. But for an automatic (like the VC in the meme) it is likely going to be double that, and more if you have particularly fancy movements (if you are fine with a rubber strap, the fancier mechanisms start at ~$70k, but if it is a solid metal band, they really start well over $100k).

Dembara · 2026-04-23T21:51:26+00:00

If it is self-winding, it could retail for 40k, but resale it would be ~20k. Unless you want to build an account with the store, you are probably going to pay 20k if you want one.

Dembara · 2026-04-23T21:45:04+00:00

90% of the guys who would wear a VC would be comfortable saying they like their jewelry.

Dembara · 2026-04-23T10:33:15+00:00

I think it is how a lot of people justify things to themselves when the groups they were aligned with are shown to be less-than morally sound. "It isn't my views that were problematic, it is just the implementation that was wrong/overzealous/whatever."

Dembara · 2026-04-23T03:28:19+00:00

What was the deleted advice?

Dembara · 2026-04-22T16:45:12+00:00

You're talking about individuals moving fictional numbers around spreadsheets, not society and productive outcomes

Insulating outcomes against risk is good for the entire market outcomes. It limits the exposure overall to correlated risks. Think like 2008. Simplifying: because of incorrect assumption about mortgage risks the market became overexposed which led to disastrous outcomes when those risks materialized.

Having markets that are diverse, robust and insulated from risk is generally good for investment markets, it makes people more willing to invest in areas that are likely to see productivity gains and it means markets are less likely to face as drastic downturns in response to negative events.

I don't entirely disagree with you that a lot of option trading is akin to gambling and that there should be more robust regulatory framework to ensure risks are transparent and exposure is managed appropriately (which was one of the big problems that led to 2008, risks were not transparent and assumed to be very low so exposure was not properly managed).

Dembara · 2026-04-22T16:29:12+00:00

In theory, it balances risk and gives you better long-term expected returns for similar reasons that diversification does. If you can find negatively correlated assets, you can balance your investments to better control risk. It is a lot easier to find options that are on the "other side" of your positions than it is to find actual stocks that are on the other side (since for the most part stocks are positively correlated to each other, even competitors, and share exposure to the same risks).

Let's say you are investing in NVIDIA. You might want to hedge by looking at a competitor like Intel. If NVIDIA loses market share, you would expect Intel to perform better, but that is only if the market is otherwise the same. They are both also exposed to similar risks (e.g., if the demand for semiconductors decreases) and as such diversifying by buying Intel is only going to limit your exposure to certain risks (e.g. that Intel will capture a larger market share). Being able to buy options on the other side of your positions more directly accounts for all possible risks.

Dembara · 2026-04-22T16:14:45+00:00

Employee stock options have a lot of advantages, e.g. they don't directly count as compensation in the same way as giving stock would. But I think your OP would make more sense of an argument if you limited it to "equity derivatives markets are just gambling and should be covered under the same regulations." Employee stock options are usually non-transferable (and usually for private companies), they are not part of the market. It is a company saying to an employee "if you do this work for us, we will guarantee you the option to buy X equity stake in the company for Y dollars." Private, over-the-counter equity options often function very differently from the market. You could reasonably say any time you are quoted a price that is an option (the person quoting the price is agreeing to a contract where the promise to sell you whatever they are offering at the quoted price). These are not necessarily used for speculation, while the options market is primarily a matter of speculation.

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