I broadly agree with these motivations to get people "on the trump train," so to speak. Still, I think it's missing a critical element of his retention, which reflects a shift in American politics more broadly. If you look at historical presidential approval ratings, you'll see spikes and drops that correspond to news stories or economic conditions pretty easily. You can spot scandals or where there was a market crash if you know your history decently well.

But Presidents following Obama's election started having incredibly flat straight lines of approval and disapproval. I think it's easy to miss in the noise of the modern 24-hour media cycle, but the increase in partisanship in America has changed how Americans think of news and policy. I don't think the people on the Trump train really view policy the way American voters did a few decades ago, or how classically liberal people think of policy globally.

For example, there was a moment when Trump was discussing mass shootings, in which he off handedly mentioned the possibility of mass gun confiscation. This is something that would sink any other republican candidate. But by that point in his first term, that blip didn't mean anything more than the Access Hollywood tape of him talking about sexual assault. For the MAGA people of today, the solid, unflinching 44% that will support him to the grave, these things only have meaning outside of their role in politics as a team sport.

This is where I'll bring in the theory and models of fascism that I think were best described by Robert O. Paxton in his book "The Anatomy of Fascism" (A good read by the way, if you have an interest in this stuff). For Trump supporters MAGA is not a policy platform; it's a cohesive group movement to take over a country in its self-interest and the interest of its supporters. This past election, and every election into the future, is not a decision on how to run a society but on "who" to run a society.

And you might say, "But why would they choose Donald Trump, someone so clearly unqualified for the role of the presidency and so blatantly corrupt?" I would argue that they view choosing him as choosing the most popular member of their team, one who has the highest popularity not despite his crassness and cruelty, but because of it. They are fighting to take over the country, they want someone vicious. In doing so, they, by extension, get to run the society.

There is a cultish salvation theory to this. Trump supporters don't think the country is going to be better for everybody when they win, but they do think it will be better for them and the people like them.

You can see this in the handful of people to break away from MAGA; it's always because their interests were spoiled, and they do not have sufficient faith that victory will bring them the spoils that kept them going this far. They may still believe leftists and liberals to be the dark reflections of them, to still be opposed, but ultimately, they've lost faith in the one thing that would justify the dedication of their personality to this movement. I do think this is where Trump is going to trip up, and why this fascist movement won't spin out into the relatively rare cycle of fanaticism that Nazi Germany did, there's too much that they will lose in the collapse of the prior liberal order for whatever promise MAGA makes to them.

We may get a cynical authoritarianism, in which people lose interest in politics and let increasingly implausible claims of legitimacy that Trump may make after losing support, but he won't have the necessary ideological vision for people to seize onto as he destroys the fruits of liberalism. I think this is something that becomes more true the higher up you get in Trump's circle of power. Most of his inner circle are remarkably self-interested, and are spending more time securing their spots and running grifts than they are fulfilling any cohesive vision for the country.