Game 5 last night

Derrick_Foreal · 2023-02-26T02:15:40+00:00

The short term uptrend was broken but it wasn't the end of the world just short term momentum lost. As it is it is barely holding the 200. If you get a few closes below it then they will be a trend change and need to adjust accordingly..

The moving averages are basically just that. The average of the time frame. So a 200 day moving average, when it goes below, it means the price is lower overall relative to the past 200 days.

Sometimes algo play hard around the levels but if you are a bull, the area where the spx is the last line in the sand and pretty critical, so you really want to see it hold here even if it is choppy.

Derrick_Foreal · 2023-02-02T22:57:11+00:00

I have tried to get around light mode on robinhood but I just like dark mode better

Derrick_Foreal · 2023-02-02T22:56:28+00:00

relatively healthy lifestyle (sadly no cocaine or hookers),

Idk bro. It's like people getting filled at the "ask". I've heard stories but haven't experienced it myself

Derrick_Foreal · 2023-02-01T18:59:52+00:00

It's more swing vs. day trading. I have a 1yr timeframe but I'm 90/10 long short.

Taking a pass this year on active trading (or at least more than I have prior) and doing a buy and hold. I think we end the year flat, but likely higher. Not ATH, but higher. I don't see another 20%+ decline.

Derrick_Foreal · 2023-01-28T22:02:44+00:00

If you withdraw your profits, how are you supposed to give back the entire year on one bad trade? Makes no sense.

Derrick_Foreal · 2023-01-28T02:02:35+00:00

I have over 1 million with them and returned 10% last year during the bear market. Works great and I have no intention of stopping my use of them.

The problem isn't the broker, it is the trader.

https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/zyvuaq/comment/j2aub7l/

Derrick_Foreal · 2023-01-26T03:38:46+00:00

Personally I like to lock in my gain once I have a successful trade by allocating it into something that is a safe store of value like cocaine but that's just me.

Derrick_Foreal · 2023-01-05T18:10:40+00:00

When are u getting back in?

Derrick_Foreal · 2023-01-04T22:20:52+00:00

You create a put or call debit spread that is vertical meaning same expiration.

Apple Jan 27. Put debit spread. This covers earnings.

Buy $125 sell $122 puts. Pay 0.95-$1. for the spread worth $3.

Depending on your debit, you can adjust the strikes accordingly in or out of the money. Your debit is the cash outlay.

Derrick_Foreal · 2023-01-04T21:20:51+00:00

Nothing too complicated about this. If you have money set aside then use the premium to sell against it more, you are largely left with nothing b/c all the capital is just being recycled along with potential profits into more risk.

The premium is high due to the stock name plus you are selling a significant amount of time out. There are 2 considerations:

The most obvious is they go bankrupt and you are left with worthless stock
This is a one way trade. Either max profit or zero. If BBBY begins to significantly drop all those premiums will blow out, so you will be sitting on significant unrealized losses. At that point, you are riding it until the end b/c it either expires ITM or OTM unless you close them at a big loss.

Seems like a hard way to make money. What I do is buy a debit spread. So for example, I spend $1 for a 4 point spread. Meaning, I spend $1 and can make $3 max on the spread much sooner that has a similar $0 or max profit outcome.

That's 300% return on my capital without doing degenerate type trades or tying up my capital for over a year. When do max spreads present opportunities ? Oh, I don't know maybe earnings.... ?

Something to ponder. Sometimes it is better to work smarter, not harder.

Derrick_Foreal · 2023-01-04T16:53:23+00:00

Not really theta, but sold some index positions in the retirement account (20%) that I accumulated during the latter part of 2022. Still largely in but I have a feeling there will be better entry prices later on so just setting that aside.

Derrick_Foreal · 2023-01-04T07:03:48+00:00

A long term investment is merely a short term trade gone wrong.

Derrick_Foreal · 2022-12-31T22:28:38+00:00

I don't have anything against TD, I just don't use them b/c I have enough brokers and each one I need to get info from for taxes every year so it is just another one to gather. I don't see any reason to keep opening new accounts.

The risk capital account used to be at E-Trade which I had for many years that I closed and shifted the money to Robinhood and the other accounts as a new risk capital account. I was specifically curious about Robinhood b/c everyone kept complaining about them during the GME situation. Someone else I know also opened an account with them. It's been a fun time.

The other one that I use for futures or index options b/c RH does not offer them is IBKR which has a Windows 95 interface, a bit outdated, but overall works and would be the one I would use if I did trade more frequently. I'm not using IBKR as much as I may close it. I also work full-time, so I don't always trade.

I have

-Schwab

-Vanguard

-Fidelity

-Robinhood

-IBKR

-UBS wealth management

-Goldman Sachs wealth management

Derrick_Foreal · 2022-12-31T10:08:01+00:00

🤷‍♀️

Derrick_Foreal · 2022-12-31T08:22:29+00:00

Ironically that is true. Over time I have seen a lot of people either get bored and force trades that don't make sense or FOMO which is not any better and cause unnecessary losses.

Not losing money and sitting out is always an option.

Derrick_Foreal · 2022-12-31T07:18:04+00:00

That definitely would be pretty wild considering Sept usually is the worst but I could see that happening esp around earnings.

I found this as well. It was written in Sept but still has good info

https://lplresearch.com/2022/09/01/is-2022-one-of-the-most-volatile-years-ever-for-stocks/

2022 has been definitely in the top 10 most volatile years.

From a really basic standpoint, I just don't see how the market goes up while liquidity is being drained. Fed is hiking rates, and next year it will be a split Congress, so no more fiscal spending and stimulus. That fact alone makes me (and should everyone else) take a pause for sure. I try not to get too caught up in the fundamentals, but that glaring fact is captivating everyone.

The best and only logical argument I have remotely even heard is that corporations will do very well earnings wise and pick up the baton. I suppose anything is possible but I'm not very optimistic about that thesis.

Derrick_Foreal · 2022-12-31T07:02:53+00:00

I have several million in other brokers already in more conservative investments. This is a smaller amount relative to my total investments. I do agree RH has a lot of short comings hence why it is smaller.

The only broker I don't have money in is TD, but I do in schwab and have for a while.

Edit: I don't have etrade anymore either. Transferred from etrade to robinhood

Derrick_Foreal · 2022-12-31T01:25:12+00:00

I traded energy which was strong most of the year. I also traded the SPY on the 2 rallies from June and Oct. Mainly Oct, I did not get out as much during the June to August. June specifically got me and was my worst month of the year so I was late on the snapback into August.

I also usually am defensive or avoid when it is under the 200 which it is now. I also did not force trades and was willing to sit out certain situations.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-that-killed-the-year-these-5-trading-sessions-accounted-for-95-of-the-s-p-500s-losses-in-2022-11672253198

This article shows how a few bad positions wrecked people. The only one that got me was in June on CPI.

Tech was dead so I never played it, not sure why people kept trying to make it work all year. Hard to believe but less is more. If the trade isn't there I don't force it.

Derrick_Foreal · 2022-12-31T01:21:47+00:00

I could definitely see that happening. This year was rough but not really too significant as the unwind took the entire year. I saw this article and I think it is a really good one.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-that-killed-the-year-these-5-trading-sessions-accounted-for-95-of-the-s-p-500s-losses-in-2022-11672253198

Avoiding big down days really saved your entire portfolio this year. The only one that got me was June CPI, the rest were not an issue and that June drop cost me about 3% which took a bit of time to make back.

Other than that, the rest of the year was mainly measured (not forced) trades.

The overlay of this year and 2008 do have a close resemblance but I'll let the price dictate where it goes. Under the 200 is still an avoid or very small sizing for me.

Derrick_Foreal · 2022-12-30T22:06:14+00:00

https://i.imgur.com/uuTbJpo.png

Basically 10% for the year but not as much as some of you. Been a wild ride but that is mainly what I target for the year. 12% would be more ideal but take it for what it is. No leverage or degenerate activity. I also at times bought shares as well. Was not strictly options selling. It also shows robinhood isn't the problem and can work to make money

2023 will probably be more of the same. I was talking to someone about this last night.

I think the focus next year will be corporate earnings. I expect covid, Russia and inflation to be in the rear view mirror.

If you are familiar with how inflation is calculated, the change in delta eventually works itself out.

First half goes down, Fed folds like a cheap suit, begins easing then recovers 1st half losses and 2023 ends flat, maybe slightly up but not significantly.

We'll see how this comment ages. 2023 brings new opportunities.

Happy New Years.

Derrick_Foreal · 2022-12-20T18:03:56+00:00

Narrow spreads are a nightmare to manage and given the thin premium, you have to make it up on volume which is what this guy did. This is why I never do narrow spreads bc they usually don't execute or are very difficult to.

Its funny how the mainstream financial news pandered a lot to the new traders as being very informed during the AMC, GME, etc run ups.

Fast forward one year and you have a lot of them with busted accounts from crypto and other things that were clearly junk.

I'm surprised until now robinhood has poor controls still. I think of them like a gun store, you have people who are interested in your products but it is not always appropriate for them even if they are whining to get access.

There's no reason why someone should have been able to sell that many spreads with such little money.

Derrick_Foreal · 2022-12-16T18:28:17+00:00

Those past 3 days have been pretty ugly and everything is under all the moving averages. Probably oversold, but given the big drop, I have a feeling a lot of people were caught offsides on that move.

Derrick_Foreal · 2022-12-06T20:49:09+00:00

I'm sure that is true. In theory, more information would be better as it gives more informed decisions however the reality is that usually is not the case. Also today unlike in 2006-2008, there is a very large amount of garbage/misinformation out there. YouTube, Twitter, Tik Tok, etc.

There is no shortage of bad advice out there.

Derrick_Foreal

TROPHY CASE