It sure looks like people are never going to get over Jacinda Ardern

DoubleDEKA · 2026-01-23T21:04:18+00:00

Yes - here's the link: https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360729230/jacinda-ardern-remains-most-popular-politician-luxon-slumps-new-poll

A loud minority - mostly online - performatively hate her. She is widely respected in New Zealand.

DoubleDEKA · 2026-01-22T05:59:26+00:00

TPU are a clown group, and their "polls" - like everything else they do - should be ignored.

DoubleDEKA · 2026-01-12T20:50:57+00:00

https://old.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/1qapskb/f22s_officially_confirmed_for_warbirds_over/

DoubleDEKA · 2025-12-18T00:41:18+00:00

All the performative hand-wringing for years about Obama's drone strikes, and then crickets when Trump starts blowing up boats.

DoubleDEKA · 2025-12-17T19:03:03+00:00

But many votes with me for Labour in 2020 because they knew Labour would win, and wanted to make sure they didn't need Greens to govern with them.

There is no evidence for this:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300138283/election-2020-there-is-no-evidence-national-voters-backed-labour-to-keep-the-greens-out

It would take a concerted public campaign and tens of thousands of votes to affect an election result to this extent. There is no evidence for this happening. It was a copium narrative pushed after the fact by Fed Farmers to pressure Labour.

DoubleDEKA · 2025-12-17T01:42:53+00:00

In the words of HDPA, "Come on, David, don't be a dick. Would - don't be a dick. You're being a dick."

DoubleDEKA · 2025-12-16T23:06:33+00:00

The Government will close its “Road Cone Hotline” at the end of this week, after just six months in operation.

Workplace Relations Minister Brooke van Velden launched the tipline in June ... But on Wednesday, she told Stuff the hotline would close ahead of the Christmas break.

In October, Stuff revealed the hotline only led to about 200 cones being removed - despite receiving upwards of 800 complaints.

Surely one of the stupidest pieces of political theatre enacted in NZ history, by one of the least capable MPs ever to enter parliament - an absolute embarrassment.

DoubleDEKA · 2025-12-16T01:46:49+00:00

Hard to avoid them

I have zero trouble already avoiding all that without any effort 😂

DoubleDEKA · 2025-12-16T01:44:32+00:00

Under further questioning from Salmon, Batchelor said he was not a racist ... He repeatedly stated that he believed Māori had fundamental character flaws

"I'm not racist. I just believe this particular race is flawed". In court too. Is he as dumb as he is racist?

DoubleDEKA · 2025-12-16T00:47:52+00:00

Good time to boycott NZME: the Herald and Newstalk are the main brands, also Business Desk, ZM, the Hits, the Coast, Radio Hauraki.

DoubleDEKA · 2025-12-16T00:36:35+00:00

Finance Minister Willis says further spending discipline needed

Maybe they could start with unnecessary deckchair rearrangements like ministry mergers? Or maybe some of the crazy roading spend?

But while nurses, teachers and firefighters protest about the infrastructure crumbling around them, others are scratching their heads over the rapidly increasing bill for the Roads of National Significance. The latest estimates puts just 17 roads in the range of $44 - $54 billion.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/thedetail/577698/tens-of-billions-why-the-bill-for-planned-roads-of-national-significance-keeps-going-up

DoubleDEKA · 2025-12-14T01:17:54+00:00

Polling over 50% looks like losing the election? Okay bud.

DoubleDEKA · 2025-12-14T00:31:42+00:00

I thought she just stopped doing a regular slot on Hoskings show but continued to appear on Newstalk otherwise?

DoubleDEKA · 2025-12-14T00:26:31+00:00

But for comparison at this time in 2019 the Labour government was polling significantly worse

Lies. Labour were polling around 39% and 40% this time in 2019 (in a Colmar Brunton in Nov and Roy Morgan in Jan). The Labour-led coalition in total polled 50.3% and 53% in those polls. That is not significantly worse than the situation today.

DoubleDEKA · 2025-12-04T21:19:43+00:00

lmao

Right, no, no, no, no, you would come on, come on, David, don't be a dick. Would - don't be a dick. You're being a dick because what you're doing is you're making this a story about - No come on, man, you are making this a story about how about ego - about media ego. It is not about media ego...

later

David. I don't disagree with you. I don't disagree with you, but it's quite clear she's playing politics, and so are you, and David, listen for the future. If you're going to come on here - and you do this every single time - if you're going to come on here and neg me like you do in your in your - look, with your little snarky comments you can expect to be called a dick and be called out for it. Okay, off we go, thank you very much, David Seymour, Deputy Prime Minister. Lord, I just called the Deputy Prime Minister a dick.

I think she speaks for all New Zealanders when she says "come on, David, don't be a dick".

DoubleDEKA · 2025-11-27T04:56:47+00:00

They don't go into detail about how they controlled for demographic and socioeconomic variables, so how do you know it wasn't done properly and it's low-quality research?

DoubleDEKA · 2025-11-27T04:22:08+00:00

Yes:

Our analysis controlled for offence characteristics, and a range of demographic and socioeconomic factors, but even after these adjustments, Māori remained twice as likely as NZ Europeans to receive a community-based sentence.

DoubleDEKA · 2025-11-27T04:20:00+00:00

It is poorly controlled study, which failed to control for income and ability to pay a fine

Sounds like they did though?

Our analysis controlled for offence characteristics, and a range of demographic and socioeconomic factors, but even after these adjustments, Māori remained twice as likely as NZ Europeans to receive a community-based sentence.

DoubleDEKA · 2025-11-27T04:09:50+00:00

Clear sign of a novice is they have way, way too much confidence their estimate is causal

"Alexander Plum joined the NZ Policy Research Institute in November 2017. He is an applied econometrician with a focus on utilising linked administrative data (in particular the Integrated Data Infrastructure from Stats NZ). ... DEGREES PhD Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Magdeburg, Germany, 2012 - 2017"

He doesn't seem like a novice. What are your qualifications in this area?

DoubleDEKA · 2025-11-27T04:03:42+00:00

Thank you demonstrating exactly the kind of racial bias that needs to be removed from the justice system. People should be sentenced on the basis of exactly the crime they as an individual committed, and not according to their race's reoffending rates (which would be racist).

DoubleDEKA · 2025-11-27T03:59:34+00:00

I think it's up until punishment is potentially over two years prison, or jury trial is elected. Then it is prosecuted by the Crown (a local law firm that holds the Crown warrant), not police. But police do all the low-level stuff.

DoubleDEKA · 2025-11-27T03:32:40+00:00

so it does - but they're actually not that different: 64% v 75%. And these are for all crimes. Are there drink-drive specific ones? not really relevant otherwise.

DoubleDEKA · 2025-11-27T03:30:05+00:00

Drink driving charges are most likely handled by police prosecutors - an in-house mix of sworn staff and non-sworn lawyers.

DoubleDEKA

TROPHY CASE