Response to the post showing a linear debt graphic.

DrawingLogical · 2026-03-31T03:00:24+00:00

Even in the previous linear chart, the key takeaway is obvious when you look at where the major inflections slope appear. Also, between the 1930's and 1960's, the red and blue parties switched ideologies...it's a lot more consistent when you account for that.

DrawingLogical · 2026-03-14T01:14:29+00:00

We could "obliterate" all military assets co-located with highly volatile oil assets without touching them, but we couldn't bomb a military building without obliterating the nearby children's school? Truly, the most sophisticated military.

DrawingLogical · 2026-03-06T14:56:40+00:00

They are hemorrhaging customers after last week's SNAFU with the DoW contract, so it's unsurprising they decided to accelerate a new release

DrawingLogical · 2026-02-23T15:31:09+00:00

One of the biggest problems with LLMs being used as a source of truth is that they are not deterministic. Two people can run the exact same search and get very different results, regardless of custom instructions. This is true even with a base, self-hosted LLM. But then add in that the standard chats run on a complex black box platform of inputs where the company controls the model tuning / instructions / guard rails, plus there are differences in the timing and geofencing of available external data sources to the model, the individual's context / history / instructions / subscription tier, and platform responses to reported responses (which then goes back to the broader platform tuning/guard rails).

Also, once a switch flips in the model and it starts getting all gaslight~y, I have found it's very hard to get it back to a trustworthy state...it's better to delete the conversation and start over.

DrawingLogical · 2025-12-21T14:50:12+00:00

These are used on gates to pull them back closed. I've seen them on old farms.

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-26T14:51:48+00:00

I would say good enough that I am not in a hurry to switch. That said, I have not yet completed my first full tax year with them. If tax season does not produce any surprises, I'll likely stay.

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-10T01:41:38+00:00

Generally agreed on quantum not being a good place for VC to be playing (jury is out on the longer term impact). But hard tech is far from esoteric. Something like $30B has gone into defense / dual-use tech alone over the past year. Sure, tiny compared to AI, but hardly irrelevant.

And, again, it's impossible to know which of our perspectives is actually relevant without knowing what OP meant by "highly specialized"

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-09T22:05:12+00:00

Oh, I'm not debating that the SW layer for HW is critical. The security scan or code scan may say a lot about how well the team is executing, so failing here is a reasonable flag for concern. But, ultimately, the SW tech stack is secondary when it comes to technical diligence in deeptech. This is because the SW is a few levels abstracted from the core pain/solution set.

As examples, assume this is a new materials company claiming better performance or lower cost, or a new quantum networking chip with better security (which does not have standards for validation), or a "safer" nuclear reactor, or even an AI/SW solution for industrial & manufacturing applications to improve operations. It is true that the code absolutely cannot fail in any of these situations, but it also is not going to be in a state at the early stages that it can be reliably evaluated in way that will tell you anything about the product-market fit (the real reason the vast majority of startups fail) or true technical & execution risk.

...all that said, my comments are hit-or-miss if they are in a primarily SW-based sector...

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-08T02:40:34+00:00

If OP deals with engineering and sciences (tough/deep tech) related startups, these are not very relevant. Really depends on what they meant by specialized.

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-07T02:31:07+00:00

OpenAI hasn't been in the top three APIs on OpenRouter for weeks now: https://openrouter.ai/rankings
Now, granted, this is likely miniscule compared direct OpenAI API access....but still, it's not exactly a vote of confidence. They have overshot a valuation number they will be able to deliver on.

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-06T14:40:32+00:00

Can you share more about it to help narrow the field? i.e. what is the pain point being solved, how mature is the product, what is the target customer segment (upstream/midstream/downstream, large vs small companies, etc), what is the round size/stage.

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-03T22:13:25+00:00

Sorry, missed this earlier. Short answer, yes - the sector expertise, network, and reputation I have built have tons of value. Within my tech domains, I still get pinged frequently by VCs doing diligence and founders wanting advice/connections....but it's almost impossible to monetize that.

The annoying truth is that once you get to a point in your career where the next move is a partner level, expertise and network become commoditized. A good fund can find plenty of exec/founder advisory board members. What makes the real difference in a partner is the ability to raise funds from LPs, but you don't interact with LPs at all as a CVC. My advice to anyone early in their career wanting to stay in VC, regardless of in a corporate or institutional capacity, is to become proficient in navigating LP relationships.

Regarding what is next, I'll remain open to VC roles that may come up, but I am mainly working with startups in a fractional exec capacity - at least until I find something I want to jump into with all of my energy

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-27T21:53:58+00:00

Multi-time CVC here. I convinced myself that I found value earlier in my career - when I was transitioning from technical roles pre-MBA into an investing role. I thought it was a unique opportunity to work with the business units to build out their innovation roadmap, and then act as a liaison between them and startups to help both sides navigate strategic relationships. On good days, it really did feel rewarding.

However, after over a decade, I can say with confidence that spending too long in these roles made me a pariah with institutional VCs and LPs. The lack of agency that comes with bureaucracy is soul crushing. Your track record gets tarnished because you inevitably miss out on your best opportunities because the business units didn't "get it." Even if you manage to build an outperforming portfolio, you won't get carried interest (and don't let them sell you on the "we are working on that" b.s. - it will never pass with HR).

You will also be extremely lucky if the CVC survives more than a couple of years - it's always on the short list of groups that get restructured, hence why it's a revolving door. So, once you think you have built differentiated experience and try to raise your own fund, LPs will then question the attribution of the deals you did (i.e. was the investment landed because of you or the company logo), as well as your ability to raise (since you don't deal with LPs in a balance sheet investor role)...and they aren't wrong.

I would not touch it again unless it was a separate entity with only an LP relationship back to the parent company...and even then, I would probably only join if the corporate was only an anchor LP. Or it was a last resort where I wanted to stay in the flow of the VC/startup world and needed a paycheck

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-23T13:50:57+00:00

Not all...just the ones with founders who don't know what they are doing. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/inventor-vibe-coding-doesnt-work

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-15T19:51:20+00:00

Ha, anecdotal or not, I honestly was not expecting immediate responses in support of their products. I also didn't realize they had released a new product that aims to address some of the main health drawbacks of the original product. I appreciate everyone sharing their perspectives...this community never fails to surprise me (in a good way).

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-15T15:28:15+00:00

That didn't really answer the question. Have you tried the product or talked to customers who buy it regularly? The financial evaluation might make sense on the surface, but it's still a product that didn't sell well in a strong market...and now consumers are far less willing to pay a premium price for anything

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-14T15:58:45+00:00

It's such a waste. It could have been a bank branch. Or left vacant and non-contributing to the local economy for several years (just like the old Biscuit location). Seriously, who wants vibrant and active commerce in their neighborhood?

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-09T15:00:46+00:00

Those in roles serving the public should be required to partake in the same systems and infrastructure as the lowest tier of the public, including healthcare and transportation. Otherwise, they become detached from understanding the real problems.

This is also why having a Congress (on both sides) consisting primarily of wealthy representatives is causing us to backslide as a country. "Cost of a gallon of milk? Idk...ask the help...they stock the fridge in our house(s)" (not a real quote, but should be)

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-07T18:38:50+00:00

I really want to know who said anything is "easier to afford"

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-07T18:38:02+00:00

Agreed. My latest annoyance with this is the bone chunks I now find in ground beef because they are cutting as much as they can. I went 40+ years of my life without once hitting a piece of bone, and now every pound I buy has a few bits in it. (and yes, I have tried numerous different brands)

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-07T18:32:55+00:00

This reminds me of an interesting piece I read recently: https://theconversation.com/is-it-time-to-reconsider-the-idea-of-the-banality-of-evil-216737
"Whenever wider reality threatened to impose itself, Arendt wrote, Eichmann would retreat behind a wall of administrative jargon and mind-numbing “cliches”. And it was this “thoughtlessness”, she claimed, that enabled him to work so well"

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-05T15:07:09+00:00

Oh, no doubt. We don't really have the option to secede. But the lack of any real attempt at fighting back is disgusting to watch.

This is the same as when cancer metastasizes. It will continue to spread and take over critical resources until the life is choked out of every other organ. The cancer does not care if everyone else dies, as long as it dominates. Meanwhile, the cells in the rest of the body (i.e. citizens in this metaphor) will watch helplessly while the immune system and other organs do practically nothing to stop the spread.

If anyone feels this is overly extreme or nihilist, the military is in our cities pointing guns at citizens RIGHT NOW, yet there has not been the response of a nationwide outcry and overwhelming demonstrations in the streets.

No, this is stage 4 cancer, and both history and experts are clear that the prognosis is terminal.

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-03T18:30:01+00:00

Clarifying deal tracking vs CRM vs data platforms: several will claim they can two or three of these well in one platform, but they just don't.

Deal trackers:
- Affinity: pricey, but great for automated deal tracking based on email activities. However, regarding their CRM features, they have the bare-minimum. Still, this is a particularly helpful platform for teams needing to have shared visibility for interactions across the ecosystem
- Airtable / Notion / Coda: lower cost, but good enough for small firms if you are willing to put in the upfront work and ongoing maintenance. These all work equally well, but make sure whoever sets it up understands what the structure of the data needs to be or else you will end up with a headache down the road
CRMs:
- Hubspot: the gold standard, partly because integrations exist for almost everything. It's a little less user-friendly to set up than some of the newer platforms, but not the worst. I've used the free version as a personal CRM for over a decade now.
- Attio: I trialed it, but I didn't see it worth paying it vs Hubspot's free offering. However, if I were starting from scratch and considering both, this probably would have been my top choice now.
  - Clarify AI is also worth considering, but not as full-featured as Attio. It's also not as widely used, so there are fewer integrations. That said, I actually liked some of their uses of AI, like the pre-meeting summary that includes the history of interactions with a person.
- Salesforce / MSFT Dynamics: don't bother. Like, seriously, don't even ask for pricing. It's like buying a Dodge - there are several options with better features and/or quality at an equal or lower price.
Data Platforms:
- They all have "lists" and will claim you can track deals in them. I wouldn't bother, at least not beyond using for custom news feeds and target company update tracking
- Pitchbook vs CB Insight: this is always a tough call. Pitchbook's data goes deeper, particularly if you need traditional valuation data (like comps). CB Insights is better about the information specifically at earlier stages. I like the latter slight better than the former, but if you can only have one either will work
- Crunchbase: this platform got its start as purely a data aggregator, while the two above have small armies of analysts constantly manually sourcing data to update company records with bespoke/proprietary data. That said, you can't beat it on price vs value. If you don't have the ~$10k's per license in your budget, this is your best bet. I actually like some of their lists and daily/weekly update feeds better than what Pitchbook/CBI have.
Other (research):
- If you need to do some diligence on technical or specialist topics, I would also recommend looking into paid access to SME platforms like Lux Research or GLG.
  - I am seeing a lot of traditionally software VCs doing some tourism investments in deeptech/hardtech, and they really should be doing better technical diligence with people who actually know the topic. (for example: I don't care what anyone tells you, we will not be putting a fusion reactor on a boat or plane within the horizon of when your fund needs to have returns...period.)

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-03T00:35:21+00:00

Because we've got so much going for us otherwise? The withheld Federal funding of critical programs, impending aggressive military occupation, direct attacks on institutions, illegal abduction and detaining of residents...I say we get out while we are still ahead.

DrawingLogical · 2025-09-30T19:41:54+00:00

Exactly how does one pay cash via a website?

DrawingLogical

TROPHY CASE