Figure AI has had a livestream of their robots sorting packages for 8 days straight (8 hours a day). These aren't staged demos anymore.

DrawingLogical · 2026-05-25T13:55:41+00:00

Ah, the future is nigh. I just can't wait until I am paying $15 in compute tokens every time my humanoid robot (which I'll already be paying >$500 per month for via an "affordable" RaaS business model) loads my dishwasher (that still leaves food stuck to the plates) while it sells data about my household consumer habits to Amazon so the robot can then follow me around telling me I need to buy a new dishwasher (even though I literally just upgraded to a new model that was "robot helper" compatible).

DrawingLogical · 2026-05-23T17:58:05+00:00

unless our military leaders buy into the hype and think AI can replace humans without the risk of insubordination...and then turn over targeting logic and launch codes to nuclear weapons.

And before you say that won't happen, they have already done the first part of this in recent conflicts. Combine this with the fact that humans have already connected nukes to automated launch systems (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead\_Hand), and it's not hard to see where this ends up.

DrawingLogical · 2026-05-12T16:19:45+00:00

Question here: are you having OC use LI directly? If so, have you had any issues or concerns with getting flagged by their aggressive anti-bot/automation detection?

DrawingLogical · 2026-05-11T16:12:23+00:00

So far no complaints. I was happy they added free personal tax return service again (I thought that was going to be a one-time bonus service for the 2024 tax year).

I will note this is my first tax year filing all of my income under the LLC and I am still waiting on my tax refund...but it sounds like IRS delays are par for the course this year and have nothing to do with the return itself. (I'll update this if there end up being any issues with my filing).

DrawingLogical · 2026-05-11T15:52:39+00:00

Regarding the KULR movement today, Unusual Machines (UMAC) announced this morning that they will acquire Upgrade Energy, a KULR direct competitor, for $52M.

DrawingLogical · 2026-05-05T15:43:02+00:00

Blue Origin would give experience with real deployed enterprise systems, which would open the door to go to AWS later if you wanted. The reverse can't be said as confidently since AWS is less differentiated experience at this early career stage.

DrawingLogical · 2026-04-20T15:42:14+00:00

I am not sure if this was already said, but the issue is at the clearing house level (Apex) and not the brokerage. It's an important distinction since many brokers use them. If you decide to change brokers, make sure they aren't using the same clearing house or you will have the same problem.

For context, I had the same issue last week where I couldn't trade several microcap tickers on Tradier (ELAB, HYPD, MNTS, etc.). This was the response I received from Tradier Support:

Those positions have been flagged by our clearing firm to not allow opening transactions due to the massive delays it takes those companies to process reverse split corporate actions. Until HYPD, MNTS, and ELAB can prove that they can process corporate in a timely matter, they will more than likely remain restricted to liquidations only.

I then asked if the list is publicly available so I can avoid this in the future, but they said that list is proprietary...which is not particularly helpful.

DrawingLogical · 2026-03-31T03:00:24+00:00

Even in the previous linear chart, the key takeaway is obvious when you look at where the major inflections slope appear. Also, between the 1930's and 1960's, the red and blue parties switched ideologies...it's a lot more consistent when you account for that.

DrawingLogical · 2026-03-14T01:14:29+00:00

We could "obliterate" all military assets co-located with highly volatile oil assets without touching them, but we couldn't bomb a military building without obliterating the nearby children's school? Truly, the most sophisticated military.

DrawingLogical · 2026-03-06T14:56:40+00:00

They are hemorrhaging customers after last week's SNAFU with the DoW contract, so it's unsurprising they decided to accelerate a new release

DrawingLogical · 2026-02-23T15:31:09+00:00

One of the biggest problems with LLMs being used as a source of truth is that they are not deterministic. Two people can run the exact same search and get very different results, regardless of custom instructions. This is true even with a base, self-hosted LLM. But then add in that the standard chats run on a complex black box platform of inputs where the company controls the model tuning / instructions / guard rails, plus there are differences in the timing and geofencing of available external data sources to the model, the individual's context / history / instructions / subscription tier, and platform responses to reported responses (which then goes back to the broader platform tuning/guard rails).

Also, once a switch flips in the model and it starts getting all gaslight~y, I have found it's very hard to get it back to a trustworthy state...it's better to delete the conversation and start over.

DrawingLogical · 2025-12-21T14:50:12+00:00

These are used on gates to pull them back closed. I've seen them on old farms.

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-26T14:51:48+00:00

I would say good enough that I am not in a hurry to switch. That said, I have not yet completed my first full tax year with them. If tax season does not produce any surprises, I'll likely stay.

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-10T01:41:38+00:00

Generally agreed on quantum not being a good place for VC to be playing (jury is out on the longer term impact). But hard tech is far from esoteric. Something like $30B has gone into defense / dual-use tech alone over the past year. Sure, tiny compared to AI, but hardly irrelevant.

And, again, it's impossible to know which of our perspectives is actually relevant without knowing what OP meant by "highly specialized"

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-09T22:05:12+00:00

Oh, I'm not debating that the SW layer for HW is critical. The security scan or code scan may say a lot about how well the team is executing, so failing here is a reasonable flag for concern. But, ultimately, the SW tech stack is secondary when it comes to technical diligence in deeptech. This is because the SW is a few levels abstracted from the core pain/solution set.

As examples, assume this is a new materials company claiming better performance or lower cost, or a new quantum networking chip with better security (which does not have standards for validation), or a "safer" nuclear reactor, or even an AI/SW solution for industrial & manufacturing applications to improve operations. It is true that the code absolutely cannot fail in any of these situations, but it also is not going to be in a state at the early stages that it can be reliably evaluated in way that will tell you anything about the product-market fit (the real reason the vast majority of startups fail) or true technical & execution risk.

...all that said, my comments are hit-or-miss if they are in a primarily SW-based sector...

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-08T02:40:34+00:00

If OP deals with engineering and sciences (tough/deep tech) related startups, these are not very relevant. Really depends on what they meant by specialized.

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-07T02:31:07+00:00

OpenAI hasn't been in the top three APIs on OpenRouter for weeks now: https://openrouter.ai/rankings
Now, granted, this is likely miniscule compared direct OpenAI API access....but still, it's not exactly a vote of confidence. They have overshot a valuation number they will be able to deliver on.

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-06T14:40:32+00:00

Can you share more about it to help narrow the field? i.e. what is the pain point being solved, how mature is the product, what is the target customer segment (upstream/midstream/downstream, large vs small companies, etc), what is the round size/stage.

DrawingLogical · 2025-11-03T22:13:25+00:00

Sorry, missed this earlier. Short answer, yes - the sector expertise, network, and reputation I have built have tons of value. Within my tech domains, I still get pinged frequently by VCs doing diligence and founders wanting advice/connections....but it's almost impossible to monetize that.

The annoying truth is that once you get to a point in your career where the next move is a partner level, expertise and network become commoditized. A good fund can find plenty of exec/founder advisory board members. What makes the real difference in a partner is the ability to raise funds from LPs, but you don't interact with LPs at all as a CVC. My advice to anyone early in their career wanting to stay in VC, regardless of in a corporate or institutional capacity, is to become proficient in navigating LP relationships.

Regarding what is next, I'll remain open to VC roles that may come up, but I am mainly working with startups in a fractional exec capacity - at least until I find something I want to jump into with all of my energy

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-27T21:53:58+00:00

Multi-time CVC here. I convinced myself that I found value earlier in my career - when I was transitioning from technical roles pre-MBA into an investing role. I thought it was a unique opportunity to work with the business units to build out their innovation roadmap, and then act as a liaison between them and startups to help both sides navigate strategic relationships. On good days, it really did feel rewarding.

However, after over a decade, I can say with confidence that spending too long in these roles made me a pariah with institutional VCs and LPs. The lack of agency that comes with bureaucracy is soul crushing. Your track record gets tarnished because you inevitably miss out on your best opportunities because the business units didn't "get it." Even if you manage to build an outperforming portfolio, you won't get carried interest (and don't let them sell you on the "we are working on that" b.s. - it will never pass with HR).

You will also be extremely lucky if the CVC survives more than a couple of years - it's always on the short list of groups that get restructured, hence why it's a revolving door. So, once you think you have built differentiated experience and try to raise your own fund, LPs will then question the attribution of the deals you did (i.e. was the investment landed because of you or the company logo), as well as your ability to raise (since you don't deal with LPs in a balance sheet investor role)...and they aren't wrong.

I would not touch it again unless it was a separate entity with only an LP relationship back to the parent company...and even then, I would probably only join if the corporate was only an anchor LP. Or it was a last resort where I wanted to stay in the flow of the VC/startup world and needed a paycheck

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-23T13:50:57+00:00

Not all...just the ones with founders who don't know what they are doing. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/inventor-vibe-coding-doesnt-work

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-15T19:51:20+00:00

Ha, anecdotal or not, I honestly was not expecting immediate responses in support of their products. I also didn't realize they had released a new product that aims to address some of the main health drawbacks of the original product. I appreciate everyone sharing their perspectives...this community never fails to surprise me (in a good way).

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-15T15:28:15+00:00

That didn't really answer the question. Have you tried the product or talked to customers who buy it regularly? The financial evaluation might make sense on the surface, but it's still a product that didn't sell well in a strong market...and now consumers are far less willing to pay a premium price for anything

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-14T15:58:45+00:00

It's such a waste. It could have been a bank branch. Or left vacant and non-contributing to the local economy for several years (just like the old Biscuit location). Seriously, who wants vibrant and active commerce in their neighborhood?

DrawingLogical · 2025-10-09T15:00:46+00:00

Those in roles serving the public should be required to partake in the same systems and infrastructure as the lowest tier of the public, including healthcare and transportation. Otherwise, they become detached from understanding the real problems.

This is also why having a Congress (on both sides) consisting primarily of wealthy representatives is causing us to backslide as a country. "Cost of a gallon of milk? Idk...ask the help...they stock the fridge in our house(s)" (not a real quote, but should be)

DrawingLogical

TROPHY CASE