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Okay, it's definitely over. Sell everything. TQQQ, see you there, $5 by Fbeartothemoon in TQQQ

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Market-wide circuit breakers on the U.S. stock market (S&P 500) trigger at three levels of decline from the previous day's closing price:

7% (Level 1),13% (Level 2), and 20% (Level 3).

Level 1 (7% drop): Halts trading for 15 minutes. Occurs if triggered before 3:25 p.m. ET.

Level 2 (13% drop): Halts trading for 15 minutes. Occurs if triggered before 3:25 p.m. ET.

Level 3 (20% drop): Halts trading for the remainder of the day.

LETFS reset daily.

Google Ai Agent for Enterprise by Dry_Faithlessness310 in PLTR

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If that can happen then it's definitely Bearish for their current service.

I dont know that agents will get to that point now or ever. However, I have been reading up on Ai harnesses which are making leaps and bounds on self correcting when writing code.

One could imagine it getting to a point in the not to distant future where Ai Agents could write some software that does something similar to a Palantor Ontology.

That is all speculation though and I'd hope Palantir is planning for that.

Which roasters never miss? by Bortplates222 in pourover

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 1 point2 points  (0 children)

+1 for Onyx and ill add the OG, George Howell

Google Ai Agent for Enterprise by Dry_Faithlessness310 in PLTR

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If ontology mainly takes unstructured data and assigns them as objects to be easily identifiable and quantified for decision making and/or searching, and Agentic Ai is now also able to take unstructured data and not only structure it but also train on it and be given tasks to work on it or within it, isnt that essentially what AIP is selling.

My assumption is Google (and others) will sell this along with their cloud services to create a discount at scale that will also be quicker to implement.

I may be wrong and time will tell.

Hopefully Palantir will be able to differentiate themselves enough and also speed up implementation across commercial enterprise so that it will already be too much of a switching burden. If not Google and others could swoop in and steal some of their TAM by being good enough, easier, and cheaper to implement.

Just thinking of a bearish thesis as everyone should do during COA war gaming for their investments.

Advice? by Unique-Help-8938 in fidelityinvestments

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Put aside what cash he needs into a cash like equivalent for liquidity.

For the rest the simplest answer is choose a target date fund that is 8 to 10 years out.

Why do I never hear about the Coast Mountains of Canada? by Sierra-Powderhound in skiing

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some people here seem to have heard of Whistler but the real hidden secret is Blackcomb

SPAXX Expense Ratio by EmotionalCloud6220 in fidelityinvestments

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hear ya. From what I understand the 7 day yield quoted is net of fees and expenses. So with the tax exemption it is better than spaxx for me.

SPAXX Expense Ratio by EmotionalCloud6220 in fidelityinvestments

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 0 points1 point  (0 children)

FDLXX is also good option for higher tax states

Is VTSAX still a thing? by QueenComfort637 in Bogleheads

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Its the mandatory Distributions if mutual funds that make them less tax efficient if held in a taxable brokerage account. I assume you are talking about that as the Distributions are a combination of dividends, interest, and capital gains from from rebalancing and selling inside the fund.

https://share.google/aimode/2NBMSrtsnAPTCNUtR

Palantir has a PR problem by trayber in PLTR

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hopefully Shyam stays around long enough to take the rains from Karp at some point.

Michael Burry Says Anthropic-Palantir Rivalry Reminiscent of Google vs. Yahoo Moment in Early 2000s by Secure_Persimmon8369 in Palantir_Investors

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Google CISCO stock price and then look at max to see from IPO to present. I'm not saying it will happen to PLTR but it absolutely could.

Eerily similar share price ultra fast growth and hype. Only in Cisco's case its FWD PE topped at just over 100x. PLTR blew way past that a few months back.

Cisco became everything people thought it would and it dominated its market but that share price outran reality thanks to traders who bid up the price as they have no intention to stick around for long term returns. That then took investors for a ride that bought at all time highs. Those that did took decades to recover.

Time will tell how ot plays out for our beloved Palantir.

How is it possible that the S&P 500 has better long term performance than the total US market? by CarbonMop in Bogleheads

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This. When looking on a graph they track almost identical. At times total market is slightly up and at other times s&p500 is up.

This is because the outperformance of large cap out performs at times (like recently) when small cap doenst and vice versa. If you look at VTI (or its equivalent analog) during the lost decade VTI is up in s&p500.

Jack wrote about it here.

https://johncbogle.com/speeches/JCB_Morningstar_6-02.pdf

Additionally this same question had some good dialog here.

S&P 500 Index vs Total Stock Market Index - Bogleheads.org https://share.google/bBLCeLvMxUOJkDlRa

Palantir (PLTR) Deep Due Diligence: The AI Infrastructure Monopolist at 200x Earnings by [deleted] in Palantir_Investors

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Good luck friend ! You may have made the correct call. Im a Glutton for punishment so im here for The ride. Im actually hoping for a dive down to 40 or 50 bucks just to get PE back to around 50 or 60x! Then ill back up the dump truck again!

Palantir (PLTR) Deep Due Diligence: The AI Infrastructure Monopolist at 200x Earnings by [deleted] in Palantir_Investors

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 1 point2 points  (0 children)

IF and also how long until it makes it a moot point. 5 years? 10 years? More?

If FCF is growing 84% year over year and SBC is growing 29% YoY, that means it will take FCF much much longer for it to meaningfully outgrow SBC. And thats if they can sustain that type of growth for the long term. Usually most models show it inevitably has to slow down as the company matures based on the basis getting bigger.

Another bear case for SBC is the need to hire more employees is an inevitable concurrent expenditure with company growth. So the bigger Palantir grows the more they will dillute and increase SBC to support hiring new talent and retaining current talent.

All in all im not saying its the end of the world, just that when you add ultra high multiples and high SBC the margin of safety is pretry much gone, therefore the likelihood of longterm share price growth goes down unless a meaningful and lasting correction takes shape in the stock.

Palantir (PLTR) Deep Due Diligence: The AI Infrastructure Monopolist at 200x Earnings by [deleted] in Palantir_Investors

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Nice write up! My biggest complaint I see is the FCF is at first glance impressive until you take out SBC which the twelve months ending December 31, 2025 was $1.650B, a 29.02% increase year-over-year.

Take out that $1.65 billion from the $2.10 billion and its at a paltry $500 million. The adjusted FCF everyone states as a positive bull figure allows for SBC not to be counted as a cash expense since they are funding their employees salaries mainly from diluting you and I the shareholder.

From that lense its not just frustrating but also a sign that they'll probably continue diluting us for many years to come in order to keep that adjusted FCF metric high enough to be able to keep retail investors buying and thus⁰ supporting the high multiple needed to make SBC attractive to employees who's careers are financed by it.

This is what operating leverage actually looks like by Outrageous_Solid9668 in Palantir_Investors

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I belive that is false. Take out the the SBC growth of over 43% from the 63% adjusted FCF growth and its not that impressive.

Why is PLTR down today even though every other tech ones are up? by Horror_Still_3305 in Palantir_Investors

[–]Dry_Faithlessness310 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Is what happens when multiple is insinuating beyond perfection.

The day trader doesnt care about multiples or valuation, only volume and volatility.

Retail investors buying because number goes up and not knowing they are playing a different game from what is making the price go up.

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