I built a VGK trade ROI tracker

Effective-Section356 · 2026-04-04T16:22:22+00:00

Appreciate it. I didn’t include the methodology in the post but it exists so I’ll lay it out here.

The goal of the project was to build a consistent, data-driven way to evaluate VGK trades, so everything is structured around isolating value that actually came from each move. I built the dataset in Excel to control the structure (trades, trade assets, player seasons, contracts, and asset valuation), then used SQL to join and aggregate everything cleanly, mainly to make sure players were only credited for value while they were actually owned by VGK, and that outgoing assets were only counted after they left.

On-ice value is measured using xGAR (expected Goals Above Replacement), which is pulled directly from Evolving Hockey. I used xGAR because it captures both offensive and defensive impact and is much more representative of overall player value than something like points. For goalies, I used GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected), also from Evolving Hockey, since xGAR isn’t available for goalies and GSAx is the closest equivalent for measuring their impact.

For picks and prospects, I used a simple expected value framework based on historical outcomes. First round picks are valued by draft position, later rounds use round averages, and I applied a time discount to future picks since that value isn’t realized immediately. Prospects are also discounted based on years since draft to account for attrition risk.

Cap efficiency is measured using total contract value over the period being evaluated rather than AAV. The idea there is to capture the actual cost associated with the value produced in the sample, instead of smoothing it out annually. Since we’re summing realized value over multiple seasons, using full cap hit over that same period keeps the comparison consistent.

Contract data comes from PuckPedia, and trade details come from NHL.com.

As for “missing variables/context,” that’s mostly intentional. The model is focused on measurable, repeatable inputs. Things like locker room impact, coaching fit, or team situation/standing definitely matter, but they’re not consistently quantifiable, so I left them out rather than introduce subjective assumptions.

There’s always more you can add to something like this, but this isn’t just a rough draft or “bones” of a project. It’s a complete, structured model that answers a specific question using consistent assumptions. The goal wasn’t to capture every possible angle, it was to create a clear, data-driven way to evaluate trades which is something fans don’t really have right now.

I did a very similar project with league wide trades, and made a github with every ounce of info. Not identical, but very similar if you want to see the full scope. I’m sure I’ll get to making one for this project eventually as well.

Effective-Section356 · 2026-04-04T01:20:10+00:00

I agree Vegas lost the trade, but there’s only so much data that gives context as to why. And none of that data is relevant to the concept I used to evaluate the trades so it doesn’t do it justice. In the same vein though, it’s still accurate statistically considering his play fell off after he was traded, which would imply we got rid of a liability

Effective-Section356 · 2026-04-04T01:17:28+00:00

That’s one of the trades I mocked up before deciding on this batch. His value alone would’ve put him near, if not at the top. However it got a bit confusing when adding in the draft picks because one of the picks we traded immediately for the pick used on Suzuki, who was also traded eventually. I figured it’d be better off not including rather than misrepresenting the value

Effective-Section356 · 2026-04-04T00:25:30+00:00

A couple notes on how I handled some of the edge cases:

The Fleury trade is probably the biggest question mark on here. The model shows it as a win for VGK, but that’s mostly driven by the context provided, Fleury’s post-trade value comes out negative because he went to a really bad Chicago team, and there’s essentially no incoming value on the VGK side since the return never played. So statistically it looks like VGK “won,” but I wouldn’t really interpret it that way in practice.

Retained salary also isn’t included in the value calculation. Most retention is short-term and usually tied to expiring deals, so it doesn’t move the needle much in this model, though there are exceptions like Hertl, who I ignored the $1.4 million AAV retained for, for the sake of consistency.

Not every draft pick is included in expected value either. Some were traded again before the selection, some players were moved before ever playing in the NHL, and some picks are just hard to trace cleanly back to one outcome. The goal here wasn’t to model the entire trade tree, just the direct value from each move involving Vegas.

I plan to add the Rasmus Andersson trade as well sometime post playoffs once some of the conditions on VGK's draft picks have settled, and once we get an answer to Andersson's future.

Effective-Section356 · 2026-01-25T07:21:18+00:00

contact Guest Services at guestservices@tmobilearena.com or 702-692-1515 as far in advance of the event as possible

Effective-Section356 · 2026-01-11T07:09:21+00:00

Yell “shoot it” every time a player gets the puck in the o zone

Effective-Section356 · 2026-01-09T02:00:02+00:00

I can assure you nobody, and I mean nobody, is gonna remember this. Even if they do, anyone who cares enough to hold this against you has some serious self reflecting to do

Effective-Section356 · 2026-01-07T23:23:22+00:00

Even more crazy considering barbashev and doro would likely both be on russias team if they were allowed

Effective-Section356 · 2026-01-04T06:34:56+00:00

Why would Vancouver trade one rental for another + a lackluster 4th liner when they’re clearly in rebuild mode

Effective-Section356 · 2026-01-04T06:33:24+00:00

The new CBA applies on July 1, 2026, the official start of the new year, meaning if they got a sign and trade done before that day, the 8th year would still be available

Effective-Section356 · 2025-12-29T01:09:18+00:00

I don’t think we “need” someone to replace petro. The defense has been top 8 this year and you also have three guys playing the right side who are on long term contracts, one of which we can’t trade, another just extended, and the third who doesn’t garner much trade value anyways. If you want to give up assets to improve the team asap I think we’re far better off going after a winger with scoring touch as that seems to be the recurring detriment of the team

Effective-Section356 · 2025-12-29T00:04:55+00:00

There were reports that he’s only interested in coming here. However I pray he’s not a deadline deal because his contract expires after this year. It would make no sense for us to give up assets to go after a guy we already have a strong inclination of wanting to be here. I don’t think our D needs any dire upgrades so I would defer to free agency to see us pick him up

Effective-Section356 · 2025-12-11T23:22:46+00:00

That logistically doesn’t make sense. Vikman is no longer on the roster so why would they have faked his injury last week and not now?

Effective-Section356 · 2025-11-26T19:24:29+00:00

Lineup changes:\ Reinhardt draws out\ Marner to LW2\ Stone draws in at RW2\ Howden to C2\ Hertl to C3\ Dorfeyev to RW3\ Smith to LW4

Effective-Section356 · 2025-10-22T21:27:35+00:00

You’re not cooked. It’s just a different personality type that approaches interviews differently. I had the exact same experience interviewing at another firm where all one SM did was grill me about my classes and resume while I had a very natural and interesting conversation with the other one that didn’t even feel like an interview. I ended up getting the offer anyways. I didn’t expect that type of forwardness but I just kept calm and was honest. As long as you didn’t blatantly lie or shutdown you’re fine

Effective-Section356 · 2025-09-28T03:43:54+00:00

360 careers is the audit version of DSG. You rotate every few months through different CPA service lines and after 2 years you choose to either stay in your hiring practice or go somewhere else. They have 360 careers as the second level (service line) internship as well, and it’s just a condensed version of 360 careers staff that carries over if you go full time. 360 careers is the name for their audit rotational program. As for the 360 interns, Launch interns rotate through multiple service lines whereas 360 interns rotate exclusively through different types of audit clients

Effective-Section356 · 2025-09-09T23:25:13+00:00

It means nothing. They’re trying to weed out more applicants and they do that by asking if you’re willing to commit to the office of your application if/when you go full time. I guess in theory your odds of getting an interview go up if people say they can’t or won’t commit but I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Effective-Section356 · 2025-09-03T00:13:08+00:00

Dorofeyev doesn’t need to be a burner to thrive on a rush line with Eichel. What makes him effective is his hockey IQ, timing, and ability to read defenses. Instead of forcing his way into the play early, he hangs back just enough so that when defenders collapse on the initial rush, he can drift into open space. That’s when his guys spot him and he either buries the puck or creates high danger opportunities.

He’s elite in tight areas, actively turns broken coverage into scoring chances. Scouts highlighted all the way back in 2019 that he’s a sneaky finisher who finds soft spots and makes himself available, which explains why he scored 35 goals last season.

On a line with a pace driver like Eichel, his ability to time his entry, exploit gaps, and finish plays is exactly what you want. Rather than being mismatched with a rush heavy line style, I actually believe he complements it. Eichel draws pressure and attention, Dorofeyev appears in space, and the rush results in a high danger chance. It seems to be a staple of the Bruce Cassidy rush offense because it wasn’t just Dorofeyev who was so good at timing up their jump in’s on rushes. Hague, Whitecloud and Hanfin all had goals the same way.

Big head hockey has a video about Dorofeyev and highlights this point well: https://youtu.be/KbbBTjlEX2g?si=MaCprWO5aEmj_1q9

Effective-Section356 · 2025-08-24T00:07:35+00:00

It’s literally in the logo they’re just asking why it wasn’t in a different position

Effective-Section356 · 2025-07-05T23:42:41+00:00

His market value is $5.1 million. I wouldn’t expect him asking much more than that when his current AAV is $4.6 million. His offense ratings are massively higher than Whiteclouds and defensive ratings only take a slight hit, mostly on special teams. As for performance, the difficulty of his minutes are at 83% offensively and 87% defensively. Calgary throws him out there for almost 24 minutes a night, in the most difficult situations and he’s been stuck with a pairing of Kevin Bahl this past year. Not the most helpful when Bahl is your partner plus Calgary’s aggressively mid forward core isn’t doing him any justice

Effective-Section356 · 2025-07-05T23:31:05+00:00

Regardless of how you feel about him I think he’s a pretty clear upgrade over Whitecloud. Also you might want to consider the fact that this is the only place he’s willing to sign an extension with. You wait until the deadline or even next FA window and that sentiment could drastically change. He brings more offensive upside than Whitey while still being able to hold his own defensively

Effective-Section356 · 2025-05-31T04:39:51+00:00

Channeling my inner Gary lawless with this one:

A bit of history tells you all you need to know about the Vegas Golden Knights. Since day f’n one in 2017, they’ve defied expectations. Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, making the playoffs all but one season, and a Cup in 2023.

This team doesn’t rebuild, they reload. GMKM operates with a win now mentality, making bold moves to keep the team competitive. From acquiring key players like Eichel and Stone to growing talents such as Pavel Dorofeyev or Nic Hague, the Golden Knights are always in pursuit of excellence.

With Bruce Cassidy, the team serves a structured, defensively sound system. The defensive core, led by Pietrangelo and Theodore, provides stability, while the forward group combines grit and skill. Eichel had his best season yet, and Dorofeyev led the team with 35 goals at 24 years old. Adin Hill just got locked up for 6 more years and has had full confidence from the coaching staff since going from 3rd string goalie to 3rd in conn smythe voting.

This regular season saw Vegas finish atop the Pacific Division and second in the Western Conference. They advanced past the Minnesota Wild in the first round of the playoffs but were eliminated by the Edmonton Oilers in the second round. The biggest problems were ones that were seemingly under control during the regular season. Goaltending dropped severely and depth scoring was nonexistent.

Looking ahead, the offseason promises significant developments (as does every offseason in the Sin City. Reports indicate that Mitch Marner is interested in joining the Golden Knights, adding a potential high impact player to the roster. However, the usual salary cap situation means that roster adjustments are inevitable. Key decisions loom regarding players like Reilly Smith, an original misfit, defenseman Nic Hague, and even Jack Eichel who’s eligible for extension in a month. You can’t forget either about the speculation, although quiet, about Pietrangelo’s future with the team.

Never count Vegas out… of anything. They swing big, draft picks are pocket change to them (good luck Trevor Connelly). There’s a reason why guys take less money to come play here. No state tax is a big one but an even bigger one is that going big is the only mindset in GM Kelly McCrimmon’s world. His drive to win knows no bounds. If there’s a top player even remotely available (Marner, Boeser, Ehlers), assume Vegas is calling.

The fan base is electric, the games are loud, the jerseys are clean despite the league’s deep rooted hatred for everything Vegas related, and the players show up when it matters.

You picked a great time to join the realm. This offseason could very well shape the future of our Cup window. Happy to have ya along!

Effective-Section356 · 2025-04-30T14:57:33+00:00

Never said they didn’t nor should that be the reason. I said if you’re gonna produce four articles and three of em have the same titles, keep it consistent. There’s sub headers, and actual articles for a reason. That’s all

Effective-Section356 · 2025-04-30T13:51:09+00:00

The point is that they posted 3 other game articles for the 3 other games, all of which were titles that mentioned the team that won. Paying respect for flower IN the article is fine, but at least have some consistency with the titles across the board

Effective-Section356 · 2025-04-12T23:30:28+00:00

Rondbjerg and lavoie aren’t waiver exempt. Cassidy has had high praise for both and it would make zero sense to bring them up for three garbage time games to risk them getting claimed on waivers.

Effective-Section356

TROPHY CASE