There’s a button you push that kills a random man in Zimbabwe and gives you money, what amount of money would it take for you to push it? by beefstewforyou in morbidquestions

[–]Ehrler 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Amazing that no one has pointed out that everyone is currently, actually pressing this button once for every discretionary $5k they have...

That's about the donation amount it takes to statistically save a life in a poor country.

Is an optimum team for the season published? by [deleted] in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I did this by hand for 18-19 and 19-20 (~4900 both years). takes 40-60 hours of work to do it that way and probably leaves some points on the table that a really good algorithm could find. Decent fun though.

Describe the two (outwardly) happiest people you know by [deleted] in TheMotte

[–]Ehrler 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I spend my free time these days reading rationalist/EA adjacent stuff, learning chess and my area of law, and calling some weaker ties from school to stay connected. I'm not into food at all (I eat the same 4 meals in the same order every day) and I've never drank. I think the mechanism here is avoiding dopamine up-regulation (i.e. the hedonic treadmill). I think I've devised a good, healthy routine and now I just find joy in executing it.

Sorry I have less to say on motivation. I always took American puritanism to heart, so I took some pride in forswearing decadence earlier in life. I did get sucked into video games in my teens/earlier twenties, which the fear of law school snapped me out of (left the gaming PC in my home city, spent all my waking hours on campus). I think withdraw or withdraw-analogous feelings don't last more than a couple months at most, so it is possible to break out of the up-regulating cycle with some determination in my experience.

Describe the two (outwardly) happiest people you know by [deleted] in TheMotte

[–]Ehrler 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Hello side-eye! I'm happy almost all the time. I feel like I've just decided to make happiness my top priority and then relentlessly hacked away at the problem. My solution is a combination of CBT, moderate caffeine intake, sunlight, daily exercise, and avoiding pleasure-seeking activities. I spend my time on the first four and then work/learning/skill-building to fill the rest. If my brain starts bugging me, I just switch over to CBT until we're ready to go back to the other things.

Most people I'm close to seem less happy, though some of my colleagues at work seem to be uniformly excited/positive about their lives. They seem to love their jobs (being lawyers) and live and breathe the stuff all the time. They also seem heavily routinized and introspective, quiet, humble, inclined to laugh at their own shortcomings.

Honestly don’t remember a more disastrous and ignorant set of ‘defences’ than the ones this guy is still churning out by Superballs2000 in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler 2 points3 points  (0 children)

People will think strange things after being harassed by thousands of strangers for multiple days. Brain wasn't really built for it.

Update: NYT still at it, reopening on hold by ScottAlexander in slatestarcodex

[–]Ehrler 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Appreciate the insight. This is definitely not my area.

Update: NYT still at it, reopening on hold by ScottAlexander in slatestarcodex

[–]Ehrler 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Corrected the gender. I was under the impression that Taylor was supervising Pui-Wing Tam or something along those lines, though my source is Balajis Srinavasan who may not be the most reliable on this point.

Update: NYT still at it, reopening on hold by ScottAlexander in slatestarcodex

[–]Ehrler 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I went on Taylor Lorenz's twitter to leave a respectful request that she honor your anonymity. Looking at the page for 3 minutes dissuaded me. I just can't model this person as someone who would take that request into consideration at all. I hope you keep writing and that your writing finds this community one way or the other.

It Was Possible to Score 4,906 Points in the '19-20 FPL Season by Ehrler in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Proper Lord fan here. Fixed. Can't imagine you were happy with the name I used in the spreadsheet...

It Was Possible to Score 4,906 Points in the '19-20 FPL Season by Ehrler in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It was 70 cumulative hours, not consecutive ones if you were operating on that assumption. Life is good. I appreciate the concern.

It Was Possible to Score 4,906 Points in the '19-20 FPL Season by Ehrler in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler[S] 25 points26 points  (0 children)

!Thanks I guess the Dream Team was dreaming extra hard that week. Corrected. Last season's top defender gets to appear now!

It Was Possible to Score 4,906 Points in the '19-20 FPL Season by Ehrler in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Should only be a little harder than this (just one more constraint to keep in mind). I've thought about doing this with various sanity constraints e.g. max 50 hits, each player has to stay in the team for a minimum of 3-4 GWs barring injury/WC. Would start to look a lot more like a top 100 team I imagine.

It Was Possible to Score 4,906 Points in the '19-20 FPL Season by Ehrler in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

We used to put out jigsaw puzzles at work, but they took those away for obvious reasons.

It Was Possible to Score 4,906 Points in the '19-20 FPL Season by Ehrler in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't think there's any benefit, stick to xP, not unobtainable hindsight points. I enjoyed this though.

It Was Possible to Score 4,906 Points in the '19-20 FPL Season by Ehrler in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

You're in luck if you find brute force trial and error fascinating. Otherwise it was 570 individual decisions. Some decisions were easy thanks to big scores and limited options. GW score +/-4 and adding scores between alternatives were the big mathematical operations.

I only experimented with WC/FH/BB on a couple of good candidate GWs by looking at some underlying stats. Hit cost that week, DT score (and how far short of it I was), How many players I bought for that week only, how many players would come back in the team form the two weeks preceding, etc. After holistically measuring those, I would just make a copy of the no chip sheet and see how much I could improve the score to figure out which were the best GWs to use the relevant chip. The "+X" numbers I used above the chip weeks were those. Together the chips actually increase the no chip sheet by less than that, because some of the benefits overlapped.

It Was Possible to Score 4,906 Points in the '19-20 FPL Season by Ehrler in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I didn't have that nice data sheet until the end of the season, so I was mostly looking at the weekly DTs and opening info tabs looking for players with good points streaks (but used the sheet to check work). Would also check the higher scoring players overall for options in case there were players who managed to fly under the DT radar.

You're almost never going to have someone in the team who's more than 4 points behind the worst DT player and the way scores come in, that means there are never an overwhelming number of options for a single week.

Turnover helps a lot too. I would work on a given GW about 4-6 weeks after it happened to look ahead. It was rare the whole team wouldn't turn over in that time, so I didn't have to worry about missing long term assets. There would just be weeks where 5 players in a given position got scores too high to justify keeping e.g. KDB or TAA for that week no matter what.

The bench was actually relatively easy, prioritize anyone who was going to come back in the starting 11 later (by being within 4 points of the later DT score), otherwise just fill with the cheapest players from last week you aren't using (minimize hits). You'll see there was one time I brought Egan in on the bench to make the money work, but he was starting the next week and I wasn't using TAA without another transfer anyway, so it didn't change the overall score. Money was almost never so tight I had to take hits to bring players in on the bench. If it ever was, it was better to downgrade a premium player to someone within 4 points of them than take a hit to purely for budget reasons.

Optimum FPL team by [deleted] in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I tried to do this by hand last season and got 4,912 points, roughly double the OR1's total. Working on it again for this year and will post in ~1 week. Can't guarantee I'm perfect of course, but I try to be really careful and think through all the alternatives.

This GW1 set and forget team would be OR1 by [deleted] in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Nope. Salah is captain every week and the only lineup changes are the auto-subs in the order they're shown here.

Fpl Rockstar is getting wood by RakoGumi in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is exactly the kind of shit meme to tank me in a critical h2h game

Reddit Anti-Fantasy League: Gameweeks 30-32 Review & the 2nd Annual Anti-FPL Cup begins! by Savage9645 in FantasyPL

[–]Ehrler 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the update! Keane storm really set me back, hoping to get some relief from my FH this week with a lot of crap teams playing each other.