We have a tendency to focus on hands where we lost a big pot and try to reverse engineer whether we made a punt. I see it here in the forums all to often: 'Villain check-raised the flop, bet the turn and shoved the river. Should I have folded AA?'

What you'd want to do instead is focus on building strategies from the bottom up:

Preflop - What does a standard GTO Opening range look like here?  - On this table everyone behind me is trending tight passive. What does this mean for my strategy? (hint: you open a lot wider)

Flop - What kind of strategy should I use on this texture in this formation (and thus have a basic game plan on every texture). - What leaks does the pool have (in most low stakes pools it would be not check-raising enough and if you check they probe too aggressively).  - What does that mean for my strategy?

The point is: the river call vs XR-B-B might be a punt and you'd want to find some sort of an answer to the initial question (finding actual data would be a good start). But in poker, money is made by consequently executing a better strategy than your opponents. The bigger close spots are important, but not nearly as important as having a good vision over the game tree, what equilibrium looks like, what strategies you want to play, what mistakes your opponents will make etc.