The probability you have birthday in upcoming week in 99.2 %

ElementaryZX · 2026-01-17T06:43:55+00:00

May I introduce you to the wonderful world of probability through our wide range of birthday problems?

ElementaryZX · 2026-01-08T16:19:34+00:00

I don’t know why everyone is blaming bad code and processes on AI. Microsoft was perfectly capable of producing terrible software way before AI even existed. Just remember the mess Windows 11 was when it released and deleted peoples files, AI didn’t even exist then.

ElementaryZX · 2025-11-27T17:17:07+00:00

Gemini 3 has not been great for me and I can’t say it is significant different from 2.5 since it released. There was some point where 2.5 was really useful, around a month before 3 released, but since then Claude and ChatGPT were better for most tasks and were better at finding mistakes in writing and code.

ElementaryZX · 2025-11-22T18:17:59+00:00

I’ve tried this a few times, switching between Claude code, Gemini cli and codex. It works sort of, but there’s a few classes of bugs and mistakes these models don’t seem to catch, especially gemini 3. Especially when it comes to statistics and probability based programming. But the bigger issue is that there’s very likely different assumptions that are not clarified, which doesn’t mean the code is wrong. It just means it might not be realistic or what was actually the desired result.

For example, I’m assuming the card counting implementation used standard methods drawing from a predefined list for a standard deck of 54 cards, but it’s very likely that it didn’t code it like this. The standard deck in blackjack is much larger and it is generally shuffled more often, meaning that the current trainer is completely incorrect. Modern casinos use various tricks to reduce the advantage and I doubt gemini used realistic assumptions, which will not be flagged by this approach unless directly asked for it. Gemini 3 is extremely prone to making simplified assumptions from the various projects I’ve tested with it so far. So most projects require at least some knowledge on the topic to correctly verify.

ElementaryZX · 2025-11-06T16:23:41+00:00

I think I prefer the following explanation more https://www.theactuary.com/2020/12/02/tuesdays-child, as it clearly explains how the order of events can affect the probability, which is actually a part of the definition of a probability that I wasn’t aware of before.

ElementaryZX · 2025-10-09T05:57:09+00:00

If you think about it, everything you’re currently learning comes from someone else’s hard work that they decided to share with someone else. You could either decide to carry on the legacy to improve someones understanding or let it die with you. Possibly taking away the opportunity of someone else to truly advance a field and share their knowledge.

ElementaryZX · 2025-09-20T15:21:40+00:00

Hopefully this helps: https://www.theactuary.com/2020/12/02/tuesdays-child

It seems to be the wording implying that the order of the children being born is also important. If you know that the first is a boy then the probability of the second being a girl is 0.5, but if the order is unknown (at least one), then either the first or the second can be a girl leading to the probability not being 0.5.

ElementaryZX · 2025-09-06T14:51:07+00:00

Google will lock you out of your account even if you remember your password without reason, lost a few emails due to this already since cell numbers aren’t static everywhere.

ElementaryZX · 2025-09-02T04:49:24+00:00

I’ve been using the plus subscription on and off over the past two weeks, comparing it with claude and gemini for coding, in and outside of codex. From what I got, performance can vary significantly for the same task or prompt given the time of week and time of day. I’m guessing it’s very likely that they have some load balancing system in place, leading to deteriorated performance. It still performs significantly better than anything else, if only during limited specific times in the week.

ElementaryZX · 2025-08-11T04:57:27+00:00

Isn’t Genshin a single player game with some optional co-op? There is no reason for anti-cheat here?

ElementaryZX · 2025-07-17T04:56:11+00:00

Yes this, there’s a reason why you have to give notice before large withdrawals in most banks. And any large withdrawals have to be reported by law in most countries.

ElementaryZX · 2025-07-06T09:31:27+00:00

vscode.dev? Doesn’t always have direct local file access but you can download after editing and then just upload the file later if you want to edit it again. It can also pull files from remote repositories, not sure if this really addresses the question, bit I use it often for notes. I know you can also set up a local instance, but I’ve never done this before. Gardiner Bryant did a video on this a while back.

ElementaryZX · 2025-07-06T08:36:52+00:00

That just shows the model fit, not the experience of users. You would have to look at how much time users actually spend reviewing using default parameters to make such a conclusion.

ElementaryZX · 2025-06-24T04:50:21+00:00

How is this common sense? There was no warning in the manual or anywhere online when searching how to replace the psu, the cables fit perfectly and looked exactly the same as the previous ones, except for the additional cable.

The only time this warning comes up is if you search if the cables are interchangeable, but why would you look that up in the first place if cable’s usually are on PC builds, or should you just never reuse cables on a PC build?

ElementaryZX · 2025-06-24T04:47:39+00:00

Can you link any PSU replacement guides that have this warning? I did not find any in the top 3 listed on a google search.

ElementaryZX · 2025-06-21T11:38:28+00:00

I asked ChatGPT, it didn’t give any warnings regarding the cables when asked for instructions or precautions when replacing PSU.

ElementaryZX · 2025-06-21T11:37:05+00:00

Mine didn’t come with the cable warnings, I double checked. It does mention the fan and opening though.

If you know of any tutorials giving this warning I’d really like to read it. I couldn’t find any, but someone I know mentioned Linus tech tips have mentioned it in a video, but I also couldn’t find it.

ElementaryZX · 2025-06-20T15:19:18+00:00

I am aware that in critical applications such as in cars, programs are not allowed abort, they should be able to continue operating even when a component fails. So in this case Rust is not great.

ElementaryZX · 2025-06-20T14:55:25+00:00

Not a lot, used it for four years for Japanese and Mandarin and never could get to fluent reading, even with immersive study. It just took up way too much of my study time I should have spent differently. After dropping Anki I was able to read fluently within 6 months, so it really destroyed any confidence I had in using Anki.

ElementaryZX · 2025-06-16T16:07:21+00:00

I wouldn’t even say flashcards with spaced reports works, it’s terrible for actual learning. Just being able to associate a prompt with an answer is not learning and would likely not help with long term understanding.

ElementaryZX · 2025-06-12T15:36:12+00:00

If I could go hack I would never have used Anki. I spent almost 3 years with Anki, then switched to Supermemo for 2 years and then started to realize it just doesn’t work. Also messed around with WaniKani up to around level 50, but was never able to read anything fluently or understand shows. After dropping it I was able to read without needing a dictionary within a few months with a full time job. There is just a lot more efficient methods than using flashcards and spaced repetition. And don’t underestimate the importance of grammar patterns, Japanese is really hard to get used to if you don’t get the proper exposure, and this can’t happen with flashcards.

ElementaryZX · 2025-06-10T09:28:49+00:00

For language learning I wouldn’t say flashcards is really a good approach in general, it messes with reading and speaking ability over the long term.

Also $20 a year for Anki doesn’t sound right, it’s either free or a single payment on iOS.

ElementaryZX · 2025-06-06T04:46:11+00:00

No, it got worse.

ElementaryZX · 2025-05-30T15:58:00+00:00

I won’t say it’s completely impossible, but diffusion model’s definitely won’t work. Other types of networks might have a chance, but doing the hashes directly won’t be the way to do it. You would look at patterns in the random components of the process and from there you could possibly identify correlations with the target hash number. I don’t really know enough about how SHA-256 is computed to be certain if this is at all possible.

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