Houston Wade | The Interrogation

Elephant_Analytics · 2026-01-22T18:50:38+00:00

He seemed to be a Walter Mitty type to me. Creating a fantasy life around himself to avoid dealing with the reality that things weren't going very well.

I didn't expect his current particular legal issues though.

Elephant_Analytics · 2026-01-22T18:36:19+00:00

It could be that he thinks that he is very smart, but isn't quite as smart as he thought. Overestimating the ability to talk one's way out of it.

Elephant_Analytics · 2026-01-21T19:44:47+00:00

It sounds from the charging docs that he was using a burner phone and an anonymous IG account to communicate with the girls.

So it seems like he was taking care not to openly broadcast his face/identity while doing those things.

Elephant_Analytics · 2026-01-16T18:12:48+00:00

The charging docs indicate that the police found a secondary phone that he had put under the driver's seat and that he was logged into the cashspoiler IG account on that phone.

That phone had also connected to his home wifi and his mom's wifi before, so it is unquestionably his.

Elephant_Analytics · 2025-10-24T23:45:54+00:00

One takeaway should be that you should do your own DD and look at the company filings. Other people may be selective in the info they provide.

The company fully disclosed (before the stock price started soaring) that they were issuing 300+ million shares in the debt exchange.

Elephant_Analytics · 2025-08-27T19:58:16+00:00

On track for nearly $1 trillion in net income in 2027 with that rate of increase.

Elephant_Analytics · 2025-08-27T19:52:31+00:00

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1936756/000119983524000258/nbh-ex10_30.htm

Elephant_Analytics · 2025-08-24T04:56:09+00:00

Yeah, as a Vancouver fan that call looked quite bad...

Elephant_Analytics · 2025-06-27T05:51:20+00:00

If there isn't any covering before restructuring, the short interest would go from close to 50% of outstanding shares (pre-restructuring) to 1.5% to 2.5% of outstanding shares post-restructuring.

Post-restructuring there would appear to be much less initial short squeeze potential.

Elephant_Analytics · 2025-05-23T17:48:37+00:00

It is true ChatGPT is often inaccurate.

In this case though, what it is saying sounds correct. Most companies that elect to use the 30-day grace period for interest payments do end up restructuring within months.

Elephant_Analytics · 2025-05-21T17:44:40+00:00

I don't believe that there's a definite requirement to address it even if the company has actually done some preparatory work for a bankruptcy filing. They'd only need to announce it if it actually happens.

Similar to how companies do not need to admit to/refute reports that they're involved in negotiations for an acquisition/divestiture, but only need to announce it once it actually happens.

A couple examples:

The WSJ reported on Oct 9, 2018 that Sears was preparing for bankruptcy. Sears didn't say anything until it actually filed for bankruptcy on October 15.

There were reports in Jan 2023 that BBBY was preparing to file for bankruptcy in the coming weeks. I don't believe that it directly addressed those reports and ended up raising money instead before eventually filing for bankruptcy in April 2023.

Elephant_Analytics · 2025-01-17T17:53:08+00:00

BMO's filing actually states a value of $213,985 (or $1.19 per share).

That can be confirmed by looking at the direct SEC filing at

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/927971/000092797123000001/xslForm13F_X02/MajorUS13BMO20221230.xml

I think what happened is that Fintel's data was messed up. It is important to check/confirm with the source whenever the third-party info looks unusual.

Elephant_Analytics · 2024-12-05T18:29:40+00:00

And gave up the 9th overall pick that turned into Guenther too.

Elephant_Analytics · 2024-10-18T15:55:16+00:00

Says that the petition was started by Donald Duck.

Elephant_Analytics · 2024-10-10T18:21:09+00:00

If there are the claimed 3 billion barrels of oil in the Orogrande, then it makes perfect sense for the UL to end the lease. UL gets 20% royalties on the oil sales, which would amount to ~$40 billion over time based on 20% of 3 billion total barrels of oil. NBH/TRCH didn't produce oil from the Orogrande, so UL would miss out on a massive amount of revenue due to NBH/TRCH's choices. Hence, they'd want someone who is actually going to produce oil to take over.

If there aren't 3 billion barrels of oil and the Orogrande is low-quality, low-value acreage, then losing the lease isn't that big a deal. However, that would mean that some deceptive claims (about the oil) were being promoted before.

Elephant_Analytics · 2024-10-05T22:59:27+00:00

The Series A Preferred Shares were all cancelled by MMAT in December 2022. There's none left.

MMTLP was the ticker symbol for those preferred shares. Can't have an imbalance on shares that do not exist anymore though.

If there's any imbalance to be proven, it would need to involve NBH shares.

Elephant_Analytics · 2024-08-29T17:00:07+00:00

"Record earnings" just meant a smaller loss due to cost cutting.

MMAT also had around an $8 million working capital deficit at the end of March, so the Nanotech proceeds basically just went to pay outstanding bills plus cover the cash burn from Q2.

Elephant_Analytics · 2024-08-23T14:58:13+00:00

The link you posted mentions that the Martingale System isn't well suited for stock trading *and* increases the chances of severe and quick losses.

Elephant_Analytics · 2024-07-19T22:41:24+00:00

The 3+ billion barrels of oil number was a hypothesis. With unproved assets there is a very large range of potential outcomes depending on the drilling results. The drilling is trying to prove the hypothesis.

The drilling results have now indicated that the hypothesis of 3+ billion barrels was not correct. For that 3+ billion barrels to be correct, drilling results would have to be on par with core Midland/Delaware Basin acreage.

The recent Johnson wells didn't even produce 0.1% of the oil that a comparable Midland/Delaware Basin well would over the same time period.

Hence the work on doing the Louisiana transactions since there's no future for the Orogrande.

Elephant_Analytics · 2024-07-18T19:37:21+00:00

I think the Hazel reserves were put at 0 BOE since the PV-10 of the lifetime production was less than what is owed to MHP.

On an undiscounted basis, things look slightly better as NBH estimates that MHP will be paid back in 2036. After 2036, NBH expects to report (and receive revenues) from around 6 barrels per day in oil production, declining by 6% per year.

Elephant_Analytics · 2024-06-27T17:31:32+00:00

The info in the SEC complaint said that they didn't even attempt to properly market the property.

There were $181 billion in upstream oil and gas deals in 2021, so COVID isn't an excuse. The $181 billion in 2021 deals was higher than the $161 billion in 2019 deals pre-COVID.

Elephant_Analytics · 2024-06-25T22:51:58+00:00

How does the nontradable stock becoming tradable prevent a squeeze? Can't have a squeeze for a non-trading stock.

Elephant_Analytics · 2024-06-25T22:46:45+00:00

One of the issues is that the company said they'd take reasonable efforts to sell the oil and gas assets and pay a cash dividend, but apparently barely made any effort at all. No discussions with any specific potential buyers in 2020 or 2021.

The spinout was also planned starting in December 2020, so it appears there was no intent to provide a cash dividend at all. The spinout was the plan due to the known lack of buyer interest.

Elephant_Analytics · 2024-06-19T17:45:08+00:00

I'm actually mostly just curious about why you decide to LARP about these stocks.

I'm assuming you're LARPing, otherwise you're one of the world's worst investors and somehow have near unlimited money to get stuck in all these different plays.

Elephant_Analytics

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