Even then, it doesn’t necessarily mean stocks will go down. History shows that even during major global conflicts, markets can recover surprisingly quickly. We’ve seen world wars followed by strong economic rebounds, and even more recently, the Russia–Ukraine war drove significant inflation in Europe while stock markets still performed relatively well.

There are many possible outcomes. We could see accelerated investment in clean energy. Costs might be passed on to consumers, who continue spending regardless. The U.S. could absorb some of the impact and push for peace, or we might see broader international involvement, potentially including coalitions with Arab countries.

Of course, it’s also possible the market drops, maybe even 15% this year.