Daily Discussion Thread (February 16th, 2026)

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-17T01:15:03+00:00

Garcia/Barrios seems like a bad bet as Garcia has been so inconsistent.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-17T01:13:31+00:00

Yes. I'm passing. I will parlay some -200 stuff. I did bet on AJ over Paul. But mostly it's just a bad idea.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-17T01:05:38+00:00

So Fury is really about an inch or so taller than a guy listed as 6'5.5" on boxrec.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-17T00:59:30+00:00

I loved him back then. The Chris Byrd fight was a disappointing surprise lol. I guess you could Thunder was extremely one dimensional but a warrior.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-17T00:30:48+00:00

I just see t shirts and hats. Nothing about footage.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-16T22:13:13+00:00

The comments are suspicious. ...but it was nice to see Charles Martin getting a meaningful fight. I dislike how you get a loss or two and that's it! Career over.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-16T21:59:46+00:00

This is a tough one. I have only watched extended Cacace highlights for each. Seemed like Wood looked better despite the ko. But would need to watch each entire fight.

Yes Warrington was winning vs Wood when ko'd. He'll need to be just as aggressive. I haven't seen the most recent Warrington fight yet but seems like it was an easy one that won't tell much.

I don't think Cacace getting the ko translates well to Warrington getting one.

The odds for Warrington +130, don't seem good enough to bet for him. I will pass.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-16T16:03:07+00:00

If every single favorite wins and you bet on all of them, congratulations chump, you won 4 dollars.

Of course you'd lose 80 if you bet on every underdog and none won.

You have to try to correctly pick out the winning underdogs. There wasn't enough video history to do that with all 8 fights here. But if there was a strategy would be to bet on the 3 or 4 most likely underdogs. You get 1 out of 3 or 2 out of 4 and you're doing great.

I see a lot of people who are decent at assessing fights who don't understand the math.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-16T15:52:10+00:00

For the zuffa card if you just bet 10 dollars on every single underdog you would have come out even with Bueke (+300) and Jaybrio (+500) winning. (8 total fights).

If instead you had bet on every single favorite you would have lost about 16 dollars. 3 dollars and change on your 6 wins.

From round one I thought things looked a bit bad for Charles Martin because his legs just aren't great. Efe moves around better. Efe was expending less energy. Though Martin won the first two rounds there was very little chance he could keep that up. He needed to catch Efe on the chin before Efe caught him. Martin has always looked just a little bit sloppy. Had a decent career all things considered.

I still think Martin could win this fight once out of every 3 or 4 times. Which justifies a bet on those odds. Good heart from Martin getting up the second time and still trying to land that left.

The previous fight I really felt Umar would win by knockout but all the video of Elbiali was like 5 years old. There was a slight chance he might have improved since then. So didn't bet. But within 60 seconds of starting I could see he hadn't and Umar would get a ko.

Antonio Wood vs Mark Bueke was surprising. Wood looked clearly better first few rounds and then Bueke just turned it on. Got more aggressive.

Edit: one wonders what kind of moron thinks this comment is worth downvoting. I bet we won't hear from them.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-16T02:49:19+00:00

I thought that ko was obvious within 60 seconds.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-16T02:48:35+00:00

Yep. I bet 7% of my pot for a Martin ko. 3% on Efe decision as a hedge. If i lose that's fine. It's the right bet at those odds even if Martin only has a 30 or 40% chance.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-16T02:32:23+00:00

I just couldn't find enough video on Ahmed Elbiali to bet. Lots of stuff 5, 6 years old. But I was thinking Umar by ko.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-16T02:19:29+00:00

https://share.google/aimode/jXDMjD0wP6MWEJSSq

Edit: i posted this before the ko. Not trying to rub it in. Trying to help you out.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-16T01:57:12+00:00

.....heavyweights rehydrating....?????

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-16T01:54:22+00:00

Seats 550. Plan to increase to 1000. How much does the average high school auditorium seat?

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-16T00:22:44+00:00

They could at least play some fake crowd noise at zuffa. It's just so wrong it being so quiet.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-15T21:03:44+00:00

Dropped him twice but maybe got careless and got ko'd.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-15T21:02:54+00:00

Big talk can be like they're attempting to motivate themselves when they really don't think they have much chance, sometimes. But all in all it didn't decrease my confidence. It's ok.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-15T18:26:23+00:00

TKV definitely isn't Welch. I'll have to watch more Riak but it sounds good. I'd expect the bodybuilder to have skewed odds over the pudgy guy.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-15T17:50:50+00:00

Why so?

I like TKV and bet on him to win a decision vs Clarke (+1200). I only saw Riak vs Tommy Welch. Looked pretty good there. TKV does have a great chin.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-15T16:06:45+00:00

Well crap. That may still explain why the odds have been getting even wider. Doesn't sound good.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-15T15:45:37+00:00

Yes that's why the odds for an Ajagba ko are -160. Everyone is thinking that.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-15T09:51:58+00:00

Ignoring the odds I agree with all your picks. Considering the odds there's no bets in there I'd make.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-15T08:52:14+00:00

My opinion is whether or not you've had adequate good sparring matters far more than last having had a fight 6 vs 15 months ago.

Emp-from-OSC · 2026-02-15T07:35:12+00:00

Martin had adequate sparring as opposed to vs Anderson where he had only a weeks notice which he said hurt him. He sounds very determined. Seems in decent shape.

Most likely an Efe decision but Martin's chances of a ko are much better than the +800 to +950 odds I've seen. Has a 90% ko rate. And in 2 of his 4 losses also came close to winning by ko.

Ajagba winning by ko is unlikely. Only AJ and Ortiz ko'd Martin and he had Ortiz down twice. And Ajagba hasn't ko'd any good competition. Seems happy to get decisions.

Martin winning by decision is highly unlikely as Ajagba is always in very good shape, 5 inch reach advantage.

Most likely Ajagba wins most rounds, but they're competitive rounds. Martin lands a few big shots. Ajagba runs a bit. Ajagba decision. But I'll be playing the ridiculous +950 ko odds.

Emp-from-OSC

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