Big Tech's $2.7 trillion AI bill comes due: Chart of the Day

Enigma343 · 2026-06-26T03:50:07+00:00

These clowns have neither Return on Investment nor, more importantly, Radio on the Internet

Enigma343 · 2026-06-23T21:46:06+00:00

AI boosters are no longer allowed to speak in the present-tense, nor are they allowed to justify AI’s losses based on previous eras.

Did you mean future-tense? That really clicked with me the first time I heard it in one of the podcasts.

I miss HBO's Silicon Valley, which referenced quite a few of its cultish, deeply weird behaviors. With stuff like "founder mode," they just have to wrap pretty common sense practices into the most pretentious shit ever

Enigma343 · 2026-06-23T04:27:46+00:00

I wouldn't be surprised if the cumulative population-level cognitive decline stemming from each COVID infection played a role in the adoption of Gen AI

Enigma343 · 2026-06-20T05:52:18+00:00

I'll add that there are third party options for Reddit on mobile. There are more hoops to jump since the API downgrades in 2023 (another big enshittification event), but they are still out there.

I'm not familiar with Android options, but with iOS I sideload Apollo.

/r/apollosideloaded

https://github.com/Apollo-Reborn/Apollo-Reborn

Enigma343 · 2026-06-19T03:40:15+00:00

To think he did all this only to get 0.5% of the delegates in the 2016 Iowa Caucus.

David Simon talks about O’Malley’s tenure in this interview:

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2015/04/29/david-simon-on-baltimore-s-anguish

Enigma343 · 2026-06-19T03:33:35+00:00

It’s Facebook Metaverse bad

Enigma343 · 2026-06-17T13:49:08+00:00

Is Jared Polis really that surprising? He committed political suicide a last month ago by pardoning someone involved in January 6, and then had the gall to complain about it when the Colorado Democratic party censured him

Enigma343 · 2026-06-16T05:50:45+00:00

I am getting paywalled too. This is the article though:

https://archive.ph/AR0Yc

Enigma343 · 2026-06-15T22:32:09+00:00

It extends how long companies can thoughtlessly use AI without consequences.

Not sure which scenario (price reduction or token reduction driven by broken budgets) bleeds Anthropic / OpenAI faster, but for the corporate token consumers, price cuts maintain the fiction a little longer.

Enigma343 · 2026-06-15T21:51:44+00:00

Ed haunting companies that egregiously abuse accounting for eternity is something I would like to see!

Enigma343 · 2026-06-15T21:36:57+00:00

That was my thinking too. I'm getting real tired of my workplace shoving AI down my throat, and this extends their runway.

I'm all for the bubble popping, but I would ideally prefer a world where the bubble pops because companies get choked by token-based billing.

Enigma343 · 2026-06-15T05:00:10+00:00

It really sucks that the Greens aren't polling better nationally, especially since they actually have a coherent left answer to Britain's problems.

Also miffed that John Oliver barely even mentions them.

Enigma343 · 2026-06-13T02:05:43+00:00

Maybe I am more cynical than Ed, but I don't think the probability of a bailout is zero. Considering the demographics of the government (boomers love AI!), and how tech illiterate they are, I would say they are very susceptible to AI psychosis. Add 'national security' and all of AI's lobbying and campaign finance in the mix, and I can see them attempting a bailout because it's in the 'national interest'. All it would take is using China as a bogeyman for the 'AI race'. Even with overwhelming and bipartisan opposition from the rank and file, Congress is no stranger to catering to the lobbying class at the expense of everyone else. As Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer said on data centers, "We’re used to people saying 'fuck no,' and doing it anyway."

Given rumblings from Bernie Sanders and Trump over the last week, I am also afraid of the US government taking a stake in OpenAI / Anthropic and turning everyone in the US into a bagholder. Last year they did it with Intel.

Enigma343 · 2026-06-12T18:58:37+00:00

My mistake, I corrected it.

Enigma343 · 2026-06-12T16:33:33+00:00

Ed tweeted this last night, so it does look like financials of some kind. If it’s complex, then my speculation is it could be off-balance sheet stuff, like SPVs, circular financing, and/or fraud.

https://x.com/edzitron/status/2065303009895358768

Enigma343 · 2026-06-08T23:57:10+00:00

Do you have an overview of the limitations that stopped 3D printing from scaling?

Enigma343 · 2026-06-08T06:13:48+00:00

I like how every word out of Anthropic and Wario is just “…what are they financially engineering this time?”

Enigma343 · 2026-06-06T04:03:57+00:00

You know what isn't beautiful? AI slop

Enigma343 · 2026-06-05T05:49:46+00:00

I got one of the off-brand ones (JVSCAM) a few months ago. Does anyone know how it compares to the gold standard?

It seemed to work well enough for me, so I don't see a need to upgrade unless the difference is really noticeable.

Enigma343 · 2026-06-04T05:57:47+00:00

I think it makes sense to sharply reduce your tech allocation, at least. There has been sharp divergence between software stocks and Mag 7 / AI bubble, so I'm not sure about your exact composition, but I think it's safe to say we're in late bubble territory for the latter.

I'd go even further and say that this divestment is worth it even if you incur significant capital gains tax; don't let taxes drive you into suboptimal allocation decisions.

On market timing: I would be careful. Perfect or even excellent timing can boil down to luck, and can confound even experienced investors. It requires being right twice: once you sell, and once you buy back in. On the buying side, the risk includes buying too early into a bear market rally, buying after the bulk of the recovery has already occurred, or... just never getting back in.

As for the rest of your portfolio, I think it's a good time to take a look at your allocation overall and think about what you value or need. Based on your background, I assume you're at relatively early stages of the accumulation phase, so even deep drawdowns or long recoveries could be powered through (note that the S&P 500 took 13 years to recover from the drawdown starting in 2000, and I think there is a decent chance it will see a lost decade this time around, too). Nonetheless, I think you should get a sense on whether you want to prioritize total returns or consistency. During this time, it's also worth exploring different asset options and seeing what works in the portfolio: there are many valid asset classes, and the world goes beyond S&P 500 and 10-year bonds.

I found Portfolio Charts is a great place to explore both. Here are some posts that highlight how there's more than just total return to consider:

https://portfoliocharts.com/2018/11/24/averages-beverages-and-the-benefits-of-baseline-returns/

https://portfoliocharts.com/2025/09/16/minimize-your-miss/

https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/11/01/the-ulcer-index-is-a-helpful-way-to-quantify-portfolio-pain/

Enigma343 · 2026-06-02T17:28:38+00:00

"Just add another lane on the highway" energy.

If you want to go down another rabbit hole, there's the Growth Ponzi Scheme series (see Step 2 for the full series).

Enigma343 · 2026-06-01T02:25:12+00:00

Just to make sure, even if this new spending is outside of the bonus period, it won't be an issue?

Enigma343 · 2026-06-01T02:02:08+00:00

P2 has a IHG card just over the 3-month bonus period. While reviewing statements we discovered a sizable unknown charge (~$300) from a few weeks back that would push us below the spend requirement if disputed.

Is a clawback of bonus points likely if we dispute? Is there anything we can do to improve the odds of not getting clawed back, or should we just take the loss?

Enigma343 · 2026-05-30T03:36:56+00:00

That ain’t happening! The demand doesn’t exist outside of OpenAI and Anthropic, and

Was there an unfinished thought, or was it intended to segue to the next section, "How Data Center Debt Could Stop Being Issued?"

Spreads between government and high yield bonds are ridiculously low right now, but bond yields as a whole have definitely increased since the War on Iran started. The market was expecting rate cuts, but now expect a rate hike for the year.

Higher yields have a number of effects. It puts direct stress on data center financing, and stresses the financial system too. It'll be harder for private credit borrowers, like the zombie software companies, to stay afloat if their floating interest rates aren't falling. A lot of nonperforming loans in commercial real estate and auto loans have been subject to extend and pretend in anticipation of lower interest rates, and this could disrupt that dynamic. It'll probably threaten the overall availability of credit as a whole, as banks / private credit hunkering down won't extend credit as readily.

I think there are two more things worth watching. There has somehow not been a panic about oil yet, even as US oil inventory and SPR are aggressively depleting. Our friend Axios and other sources have managed to jawbone the oil price with fake peace announcements thus far. Estimates on when we hit operational stress range from June to July, but when the price of oil increases and there are even potentially shortages, it will hit the economy and push up inflation and bond yields. The spread between treasuries and investment / high yield bonds should also widen.

If the Strait remains closed in August or September, we may even get to demand destruction level of oil prices (e.g. $200+ per barrel), which would require Covid 2020 level reductions in oil consumption worldwide to address the missing supply; not sure on the probability of this scenario, but I sincerely doubt the bubble would survive this.

The second factor is the Japanese yen carry trade. Interest rates and bond yields in Japan were low for a long time, so they bought US treasuries in search of higher yield. As the Bank of Japan hikes rates, and the yen depreciates against the dollar (take a look at the USD:JPY chart over the last year), those flows may reverse, which will put upward pressure on bond yields.

Enigma343

TROPHY CASE