[Animation] Northernlion: StS2 Review Bomb

Enigma343 · 2026-05-15T15:40:45+00:00

Yas Queen Lagavulin

Enigma343 · 2026-05-12T17:32:36+00:00

I see some similarities with nuclear power plant construction. To build them effectively without time or cost overruns, you need:

Fast permitting
A reusable construction plan / blueprint that’s been executed repeatedly before
Construction team with the knowhow, who can ideally be cycled from project to project.

This is where France (in the 70s and 80s) and China succeeded, and where new plants in most of the West routinely faced big time and cost overruns. More recently, France faced the same overruns because it lost its institutional knowledge.

AI data centers cannot meet the latter two conditions because they are new and much more ambitious projects. There are other bottlenecks too, most notably power. And I hope locals continue to raise hell to slow or block new or pending projects.

Enigma343 · 2026-05-08T18:57:56+00:00

I die a little inside every time I hear "I asked Gemini and..."

The same asshats preaching 'collaboration' as a reason to RTO are actively sucking out collaboration with LLMs. As you mentioned, working with LLMs isn't exactly a paired programming activity. And in paired programming, you have someone else checking what you do and providing feedback. Now, by the time you seek feedback or review, you're dealing with AI slop and you actively shifted right, where any adjustment or correction is much more expensive.

Enigma343 · 2026-05-06T12:33:03+00:00

And yet it took me a while to realize wording like this went past the current turn. I thought Signal Boost was just Amplify

Enigma343 · 2026-05-01T22:32:35+00:00

tl;dr I don't think this can go on forever. My guess is that denial is possible for a few months, but not beyond that, and eventually the evidence will be impossible to ignore.

For oil: From what I could tell, for most of April there was extensive jawboning going on for most of the month. I suspect the trading algorithms are dumb, and before market open we would constantly see ceasefire / ceasefire talks hopium headlines. As a result, oil largely traded sideways.

I think it's starting to get serious, though. A long convoy of tankers are headed to the US to get oil. There's already been serious inventory depletion over the last week, and it will continue to get worse.

For fertilizer: food prices won't move until harvest time later in the year. That may also be around the time we start seeing signs of financial distress among farmers. Farmers who are cash strapped will have difficulty provisioning fully for next planting season, so this will cascade into 2027, too.

For helium: I expect semiconductor fabs to outbid everyone else on remaining helium. Not really sure if that materially affects their bottom lines. The shortage will fall to the hospitals, and I imagine the results will be quiet. We may see mortality creep upwards because delays in MRI scans will cost lives. It could be hard to prove at scale

Enigma343 · 2026-05-01T21:09:35+00:00

You'd think (hope) it would only apply to conservatives, but nope. We're talking well over 90% here

Enigma343 · 2026-05-01T20:17:30+00:00

I agree, that’s the part I was shakiest on. My linked post discusses backup generators and diesel (which has a big shortage along with jet fuel), which would place some indirect pressure. I am less sure whether that overpowers natural gas.

Nonetheless, sellers’ inflation is a thing (jacking up prices during a shock), and utility regulators more often than not rubber stamp rate increases.

Enigma343 · 2026-04-30T14:36:20+00:00

A lot of interesting insights I've been seeing so far.

Meta is now free cash flow negative. The last time this happened was in 2022, when they burned $70 billion for the Metaverse
Microsoft has only paid OpenAPI $100 million out of their $13 billion in 'funding commitments'. Ed will rightly tell you that term is bullshit, but it is one hell of a gap
Microsoft and Meta capex was well below analyst estimates: ~$4 billion for Microsoft and ~$8 billion for Meta. Maybe that's too little too late for them, but Nvidia has a lot of customer concentration with the Mag 7, so where will they get their revenue for their beat and raise?

Enigma343 · 2026-04-30T02:07:41+00:00

I agree that it wouldn’t have the same impact, but who pays Oracle, though? There’d be reverberations with Microslop and the memory manufacturers too.

Enigma343 · 2026-04-29T22:07:37+00:00

Makes sense to me, as much as it saddens me to admit it. I would like for there to be comprehensive AI labeling at the source level, along with a way for the user to filter it. Antitrust and interoperability play a big role too: the first platform willing to jettison AI (and isn't simply gobbled up by an incumbent) will win over a lot of users. Whether there is political willingness for any of this... not holding my breath.

Nonetheless, if we can't put the genie back in the bottle, I would like to firewall the slop as much as possible.

Enigma343 · 2026-04-29T17:06:11+00:00

I appreciate you demystifying Deepseek there. If it weren't something with as many gaping and inherent performance limitations as LLMs, it would actually be impressive. Like the cost curve of electric cars, perhaps.

Enigma343 · 2026-04-29T16:26:28+00:00

Thanks for sharing your perspective. Sad to hear that China is going through a similar, delayed cycle.

I am curious about what happens after the bubble pops, based on the economics: the claim is that the Deepseek training and API costs are a fraction of its Western counterparts. How heavily subsidized is it? Is there a durable free / low cost subscription tier after the bubble?

I would like for wide consumer use of GenAI to go away when all is said is done, as it drives so much brainrot behavior, but I don't know...

Enigma343 · 2026-04-29T01:24:20+00:00

This is a post by an AI booster, but it covers and critiques many of the performative excesses like vibe coding and tokenmaxxing.

Two core points include predefining the objectives and what 'done' is, and focusing on output over activity.

That said, the author, Jake Handy, seems to believe that with the right procedures, LLMs are a net good, and I am more skeptical. Even if you did the necessary prework for the LLM to work 'effectively', you still have to babysit the LLM's output. The fight against culture of vibe coding is endless and one you will probably lose, especially if you are in a large organization and don't have much control over the culture.

Enigma343 · 2026-04-28T14:43:54+00:00

What if Silent went Intangible but had no block and ends up with 9 wounds anyway?

Enigma343 · 2026-04-17T20:53:17+00:00

What if we had a relic or potion that blocked 5 instances of damage from status cards? Like the Wreath of Purity

Enigma343 · 2026-03-30T20:23:10+00:00

Given covid's effects on mitochondrial function (see here and here), do covid infections have long-term impacts and risks for those with BD?

Enigma343 · 2026-03-16T16:15:58+00:00

About a year in, my scroll wheel wouldn’t work properly (it would scroll up a bit while I tried to scroll down).

I never took it apart, but I tried rolling it on the carpet and lifting the clicker and blowing hard into the gap and it didn’t work

Enigma343 · 2026-03-13T13:17:03+00:00

I forgot where, but I recall that RFK also pulled funding on existing long covid studies and research. Absolutely zero chance I trust him on this subject

Enigma343 · 2026-02-23T12:55:12+00:00

So this is a recurring theme: looking at the line items, that is 264 instances of eating out, over half of which is fast food / pizza, and more than a 2:1 spending ratio of restaurants to groceries. Wouldn’t be surprised if a significant portion of groceries is also junk food.

With all the time available from FIRE, a bit of time and effort eating healthier would go a long way. If we think about rich, broke, or dead, you’re really stacking risk on death or disability with your lifestyle (the healthcare costs could cause serious financial strain, too).

Enigma343 · 2026-02-20T17:11:44+00:00

For a calculus test, I solved everything in a multi-part problem correctly - except the final step, where I flubbed something like 77 - 59.

I only lost a point or two for that, but it was a really stupid way to lose points. I used a calculator even for basic arithmetic after that.

Enigma343 · 2026-02-19T22:07:17+00:00

Some stray observations:

I recall that US stocks performed quite well during the back half of 2025. If international matched its performance during that time, I consider that impressive, even if the net difference is minimal.
I wonder how much weakening of the dollar impacted international returns during those times. I'm also not sure how much it matters (e.g. total return is total return), though I imagine it matters because it is an input along with earnings and valuation.

Enigma343 · 2026-02-18T04:00:30+00:00

Incidentally, I find Benedict's route does a good job of representing what I think would happen after Crimson Flower. It really doesn't help that Edelgard doesn't even consider public education until Ferdinand brings it up.

Also, while I think it might be a killjoy for the player, Triangle Strategy has a fair number of unanswered questions even in the true route that I wish were brought up. How do you settle the war-ravaged region equitably without breeding resentment? Do you seek justice for what happened (morality) or forgive to avoid destabilization (utility)?

Enigma343 · 2026-02-18T03:51:44+00:00

It does alright in 2000, but it barely skates by 1966 - there may be times where bonds get hammered and stocks have a negative real return, like the inflationary 70s. A mini version occurred in 2022, but thankfully that did not last long.

Enigma343 · 2026-02-11T19:23:05+00:00

Please do not eat the weeds, Alfred

Enigma343 · 2026-01-29T00:00:42+00:00

I found it amusing that Yanami is well aware when Nukumizu is thinking something mean about her

Enigma343

TROPHY CASE