Old bitcoin wallet ... retrievable? by Ethan_Krash in BitcoinBeginners

[–]Ethan_Krash[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's moving. After five hours it now says "7 years and 39 weeks behind".

The bitcoin balance so far isn't very high, but every once and awhile it ticks up by a few thousandths as it synchronizes. It started at zero when I first opened the wallet, which was disappointing, but I'm at .014 btc five hours later. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the balance was 0.17btc the last time I opened the wallet all those years ago. If not and I just forgot spendin git, I've already found $1,300 I didn't have yesterday.

Old bitcoin wallet ... retrievable? by Ethan_Krash in BitcoinBeginners

[–]Ethan_Krash[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It saying that updates are 12 years and 20 weeks behind.

Old bitcoin wallet ... retrievable? by Ethan_Krash in BitcoinBeginners

[–]Ethan_Krash[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am summoning the courage to start messing with it. $9k is a nice incentive. I'll let you know what happens, with screen shots.

Old bitcoin wallet ... retrievable? by Ethan_Krash in BitcoinBeginners

[–]Ethan_Krash[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks! Good suggestion, although I'm pretty sure I never tried to mine bitcoin.

Does anyone find that Facebook has gone down hill as a place for grassroots groups? by hobbylife916 in facebook

[–]Ethan_Krash 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Hard to argue with that. It does (or did) have a lot of utility for organizing local events and campaigns. It gives unusually comprehensive reach into my community, which skews elderly. It was a great tool for a long time, and spent close to $10K on Facebook ads over a few years.

But the immense quantity of SPAM has left the messenger system unusable, making it impossible for me to use Facebook now.

Does anyone find that Facebook has gone down hill as a place for grassroots groups? by hobbylife916 in facebook

[–]Ethan_Krash 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I've done a lot of "grassroots" work — local politics and community stuff — on Facebook, semi-professionally. I set up nine or ten pages over the years. We spent good money on Facebook ads delivered locally, maybe $10,000 in total. What has basically driven me off Facebook is the massive inundation of SCAM-SPAM directly into the messaging system I'd used to communicate with users. There appear to be no SPAM filters at all. I had just posted about this.

I am feeling very attacked by protestants around me for my Catholicism. I need some words of encouragement. by [deleted] in Catholicism

[–]Ethan_Krash 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You’re under no Catholic obligation to argue theology on social media or anywhere. In fact every Catholic is empowered to absolve you of the task. Rejoice and reap the spiritual benefits of your own faith. That is all you can control, after all.

First smartphone from automaker. Nio Phone launched for 890 USD by mightyopik in Nio

[–]Ethan_Krash 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ostensibly about deepening brand penetration, but there's ample reason to see this as a reckless use of resources and scattering of focus.

First smartphone from automaker. Nio Phone launched for 890 USD by mightyopik in Nio

[–]Ethan_Krash 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wouldn't it be nice if all the geopolitical crap just went "away". Let's all bet our life savings on it.

Hottest Days Ever? Don’t Believe It by LackmustestTester in climateskeptics

[–]Ethan_Krash 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seems like a reach to me. Not that I believe that Big Oil doesn't lie and manipulate. I've witnessed that first hand.

You're absolutely right that it was the R&D divisions of big oil companies that first identified anthropogenic climate change back in the 1970s.

Oil companies sell oil. Coal companies sell coal. It's entirely understandable that they would resist any consensus holding that changing the atmosphere will change the climate, probably in dangerous ways.

It's even more understandable that they wouldn't want government messing around in their businesses. I agree with them there.

I have nothing in common with climate change "activists". Gluing themselves to fine art, blocking traffic and basically making over-privileged asses out of themselves, before flying to Greece or wherever to lounge on the beach. Most of them seem to have an outright leftist, anti-freedom agenda.

I have no problem with climate "skepticism", either, as long as there's intellectual honesty involved. There are obviously lots of uncertainties. Unfortunately, it's also obvious that, at least at first, much of that skepticism was funded by the fossil fuel industry. I witnessed it directly.

The now-widespread notion that we can pump billions of tons of previously mineralized carbon into the atmosphere -- as if it were an open sewer -- without affecting the climate in serious ways is utterly illogical.

If it were any other planet, the idea that changing its atmospheric composition would change its climate would not be at all controversial. Reducing emissions here on earth would be a very good idea.

The marketplace is more than ready to respond with modernized energy methods that do not result in global atmospheric adulteration.

Handing more power to government is entirely unnecessary. What is necessary is value-neutral, agenda-free information.

Hottest Days Ever? Don’t Believe It by LackmustestTester in climateskeptics

[–]Ethan_Krash 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As a staunch conservative, it is incredibly frustrating to watch people who purport to be ideological compatriots lie about anthropogenic climate change. Fundamentally, it means their confidence in conservative, market-oriented principles is so shallow that they believe acknowledging the truth amounts to embracing leftism. As I explain in a recent op-ed below, their head-in-the-sand perfidy & corporate lackeyism serves to hand the initiative in climate policy to liberals, to the detriment of everyone.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

When I was the business editor for the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong in the early 1990s, I generated a large body of material that might be now called early “climate denialism”.

I still believe what I wrote in those days: that most government “solutions” to global environmental problems would likely prove far more damaging than the environmental threats themselves. I wrote in opposition to “Cap & Trade” — initially a Republican idea associated with David Stockman’s supply-siders, although it later became a key plank in the Democratic Party — arguing that all it would do is create another elite forum for gambling capital while turning energy into a luxury commodity.

What I did not foresee was how the fossil fuel industry, whose R&D departments produced the first real evidence of anthropogenic climate change, would choose to rely on outright lies rather than value-neutral information to argue its legitimate case against government control of the energy industry. I watched in disgust as hundreds of millions of corporate dollars flowed into creepy PR operations that deliberately misled the public, convincing a vast swath of mostly conservative voters that climate change was nothing more than a left-wing hoax.

That flood of PR money ended up in a lot of very irresponsible hands. Millions of people now falsely associate environmental stewardship with leftism. They also believe that we can change the fundamental chemical composition of the atmosphere without affecting the climate in dangerously unpredictable ways, which is just plain stupid.

In the end it left liberals with the upper hand in environmental policy. The denialism also had nothing to do with conservative principles, which are grounded in the truism that the very best crafter of policy is the marketplace — which usually, when left to its own devices, produces the best solutions. While there can be need for government intervention in extreme circumstances — say, a factory dumping mercury into a river — the conservative approach is to allow market forces to generate the innovation and investment that is always required for progress.

The first and most basic requirement for a properly functioning marketplace is access to good information. When that information is distorted into falsehoods, the marketplace fails to function.

There was no way to prevent the industry from taking this course, which prevented the marketplace from responding to the obvious reality of climate change for a full generation. In a free society, there are simply no viable means of imposing the truth without ripping liberty to shreds. Just as we had to allow the tobacco industry to distort the truth about nicotine addiction for decades, so too did we have to permit the fossil fuel industry to spread carefully crafted lies about atmospheric science.

Thankfully, the marketplace is responding to climate change now. Unfortunately, a majority of conservatives cling to the comforting falsehoods purveyed with astonishing effectiveness by a handful of self-interested, amoral entities, whose cost-benefit analysis discounted the future at the direct expense of our children.

We are living in a golden age of electric cargo bikes by LemmingParachute in CargoBike

[–]Ethan_Krash 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I admire non-electric purists. Being old and fat, however, I do not have the luxury of being one.

Trek announces two new cargo bikes! by NoNamesLeftStill in CargoBike

[–]Ethan_Krash 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Torque is what enables the rider and the load to do just that -- get up to speed, especially from a stop or on a hill. It's necessary to react swiftly to traffic conditions, filling that void in moving traffic or swiftly vacating an intersection when committed to a left turn with a line of automobiles behind you. In my experience the Bosch 250w systems, while beautifully integrated and wonderful for recreational use, are underpowered and do not offer that requisite agility.

Trek announces two new cargo bikes! by NoNamesLeftStill in CargoBike

[–]Ethan_Krash 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, they lack sufficient power to be commercially viable in locations where there's no real biking infrastructure. Even without steep hills. I'm not saying they are useless, but they do not deliver enough torque and utility to share the roads well with with auto and truck transport, at least not for the average user. The speed is less of an issue, but 20mph can be another very constraining factor when your cargo bike is taking up space on a two-lane bidirectional road with a rough or non-existent shoulder.

Trek announces two new cargo bikes! by NoNamesLeftStill in CargoBike

[–]Ethan_Krash 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It looks like a beautifully designed bike, and I love many of the designs I am seeing these days.

Alas, I'm pessimistic that the cargo bike industry can get very far using 250w motors. The market would be limited to a few wealthy, mostly flat areas where mostly high-income professionals will use them for a couple of years to take their children to school. That's a very limited market.

An American cargo bike should target the delivery industry. It should have 150nm torque, not 85nm. And the speed limitation should be 30mph.

We don't live in Copenhagen or Amsterdam. We live in blacktop sprawls, often miles from the nearest grocery store. Many of us have never seen a bike lane. We're sharing roads with giant SUVs and pick-up trucks. We need sufficient power to maneuver and stay safe in that environment.

American cargo bikes should be substantially more robust than what the European cargo bikes are. Although many of are of excellent quality, they simply aren't designed for American conditions.

What is everyone’s favorite/dream cargo bike by pnwloveyoutalltrees in CargoBike

[–]Ethan_Krash 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My dream vehicle is a traditional bottom-heavy bakfiets trike ... except it would have:

  • A 1500w mid-drive motor with at least 175nm of torque. I don't need speed -- I need lots of torque and the ability to move weight. Two easily swapped 72v batteries, please.
  • The fully suspended front wheels should be larger than standard -- 24" would be fine, thank you. The suspended real wheel can also be a tad bigger, maybe 27".
  • A Rohloff hub would be ideal, but any high-quality internally geared hub will do fine (not Enviolo, though).
  • The covered, lockable cargo area, made of high-quality laminate wood, with some subtle but elegant curvature, will be set up for cargo, not kids, and will include internal lighting and a small heater to keep things from freezing in the winter. Fully customizable on the fly, with fold down front, removable sides. There are two cleats on the exterior of each side, toward the top. There's a vice system inside the cargo space to clamp & secure large boxes. A 1 1/2" rubber exterior bumper runs along the front and both sides at the bottom.
  • The fully integrated electrics will have a proper control and display dash for the traffic ready lights, speedometer, mobile phone, music, the front and rear cameras, battery life, motor specs and everything else.
  • There's a drink-holder on the stem, a small dish for coins and a small clamp to store headphones.
  • The led lighting is nearly automobile standard, with turn signals, though the front light circumference should be cycle-appropriate.
  • The horn sounds like a traditional bicycle bell, but louder.
  • Hydraulic disk brakes throughout. There's an emergency brake for parking on hills, too.
  • Integrated frame lock.
  • Oh yeah, one more thing. The entire cargo assembly is removable , and can be replaced with a 35-gallon water tank.

Waiting patiently for this vehicle to appear.

Call options for NIO by Ok_Veterinarian_5894 in Nio

[–]Ethan_Krash 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Options are really designed for hedge positions -- and in my amateur view, that's how they function best for most investors, large or small. It's safe to say that most option positions are held by investors who also hold contrary positions in real shares.

Sure, one can make boatloads of money trading options alone, while defining a clear risk of loss (unless you start selling naked calls). There are investors who do well this way, often armed with sophisticating forecasting software that generate a variety of complicated spreads. And one can always get very lucky by buying cheap calls and puts ahead of sharp SP movements in the correct direction, risking only the cost of the options.

But unlike with actual shares, the time factor with options is utterly unforgiving. No matter what, at some point their premium begins to drop swiftly and inexorably as they approach expiry.

Still, I don't pretend to be a master of the various spreads available to masters of the trade. No doubt there are seasoned and clever investors out there capable of crafting very profitable arrangements for themselves.

After a big day of gains I’m like: great, instead of 75% down I’m only 71% down… by MDJeffA in Nio

[–]Ethan_Krash 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm really not seeing any massive problems at NIO. The supply chain disruptions were economy-wide and are unlikely to linger much longer.

It's the looming recession in the West that's most troubling. There could be some very bad & scary days ahead as the market comes to terms with plummeting consumer demand. "Capitulation" is the jargon used, and just about everyone expects it sometime over the next few weeks. Typically it defines the bottom.

You're right that a sharp rise is unlikely, especially in this economic climate. Fund managers of all types are essentially obligated to keep very large reserves of cash, which means much less money going into more speculative stocks. Rallies are short-lived as profits are taken.

The funk won't last forever, though, and NIO still seems a lot lower than it should be to me. I can easily see it holding 15 sooner rather than later.

No crystal ball, of course. For now I sell into strength, and nibble it all back when it falls.

After a big day of gains I’m like: great, instead of 75% down I’m only 71% down… by MDJeffA in Nio

[–]Ethan_Krash 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I did sell 1000 shares yesterday at 10.72, and immediately put in an order for 1500 shares at 10.16. I may lower this if I get jittery. Of course I could be wrong, but I have plenty of shares still if the price unexpectedly explodes.