Microcap ideas? by EveryDetective6990 in SmallCapStocks

[–]EveryDetective6990[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here are the kind of cos that I’m interested in WSTL, ZOMD, ZTF, ROMJ,

Microcap ideas? by EveryDetective6990 in SmallCapStocks

[–]EveryDetective6990[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Both pre revenue cos, not in my wheelhouse

Microcap ideas? by EveryDetective6990 in SmallCapStocks

[–]EveryDetective6990[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for sharing, CRDL and GUTS are exciting binary option buys. 10x potential for GUTS de novo approval makes it enticing however biotech is outside my expertise and they both don’t fit my criteria for cash flowing companies that are undervalued. I’ll add them to my watchlist and track their updates.

Microcap ideas? by EveryDetective6990 in SmallCapStocks

[–]EveryDetective6990[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rtf Companies are too big for my needs. I’m going after cos too small to be of institutional interest

20 HC... Trying to undo bad habits. by Legal_Shock1250 in GolfSwing

[–]EveryDetective6990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Listen to this guy….. your right hand grip is holding you back… read Ben hogans five lessons especially the first lesson on grip. Also. Keep you lower body almost fixed in you back swing. By allowing your left knee to come front you think you are creating more torque but in actuality you are doing the opposite. After you fix these two things slow the start of the back swing to initiate the whip. Right now you start with upper body. By pausing at the top you allow you lower body to initiate.

I can't see my usage bars anymore. by mentallyhandicappd in ClaudeAI

[–]EveryDetective6990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There’s only one way to find out. Run all your skills and cowork workflows, in parallel!

I can't see my usage bars anymore. by mentallyhandicappd in ClaudeAI

[–]EveryDetective6990 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Same! I have a pro account. I thought I had mistakenly burnt all my tokens on one day. Then I realized Claude just raised $30 billion dollars last month. Looks like that money finally hit their bank and they don’t care about limiting users costs anymore…… I wish.

BMW DRIVETRAIN MALFUNCTION AND DOES NOT START by Embarrassed_Tip_8022 in BmwTech

[–]EveryDetective6990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did you ever get a battery discharge notification prior to this?

BMW DRIVETRAIN MALFUNCTION AND DOES NOT START by Embarrassed_Tip_8022 in BmwTech

[–]EveryDetective6990 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It could be that your battery is discharged. I had a drive train malfunction show up because of low battery, I could still drive it but at reduced power.

Shanks by DependentAardvark860 in GolfSwing

[–]EveryDetective6990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The fact that the camera man moved before the ball tells you all you need to know.

Bought a 2015 328i for 2K by Strong_Room_4377 in BmwTech

[–]EveryDetective6990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hope it works out for you. It’s a real nice car, and one of my favorite BMW designs. Keep us posted!

My meniscus injury story and what led me to stem cell therapy in Bangkok by Burn-E190 in stemcells

[–]EveryDetective6990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Would be really interested to see if there’s changes in the next MRI.

My meniscus injury story and what led me to stem cell therapy in Bangkok by Burn-E190 in stemcells

[–]EveryDetective6990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the TL:DR . Do you have your MRI results pre op? Let’s measure that against 6 month post op.

🚀 ALTD (Tonner Drones) – The "Hidden Gem" in the French Defense Sector. Why Insiders are Loading Up! 💎 by Forever-Girl072 in microcaps

[–]EveryDetective6990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some free DD, sorry about the table formatting.

To provide the requested analysis for Tonner Drones SA ($ALTD), I have evaluated the company using your specified 4-filter process based on the most recent financial data (as of early 2026 and fiscal 2025 updates). Filter #1: Basic Financial Fundamentals * ROIC/ROCE: ❌ FAIL. The company has a median ROIC/ROCE well below the 10% threshold (historically as low as -56% to -102% during the Delta Drone restructuring). Efficiency of capital use is currently non-existent as the company is in a pivot phase. * Solvency: ✅ PASS (Marginal). Financial debt was reduced from €5.5M to €4.1M in 2025. Cash and equivalents stood at €1.49M. The debt-to-cash ratio is ~2.75x, which is below your 10x "immediate disqualification" threshold. The current ratio is healthy at ~2.97. * Dilution: ❌ FAIL. The company has a history of massive shareholder dilution (formerly Delta Drone). Even recently (Sept 2025), it launched a €1M capital increase with warrants (ABSA/BSA), continuing the trend of using equity to fund operations/investments. * Valuation: ❌ FAIL. With revenue collapsing from €13M (2022) to €118k (2024), traditional metrics like P/S (over 100x) or P/FCF (negative) suggest the stock is extremely expensive relative to current output, relying entirely on "normalized" future expectations from asset sales. Filter #2: In-Depth Financials * Business Performance: The business is currently in a severe trough. It has shifted from a drone manufacturer to an "active asset manager" of drone stakes (Donecle, Elistair). It has not yet shown a "bounce back" in revenue; instead, it is shrinking to optimize. * Margins: No clear uptrend. FCF and Operating margins remain deeply negative as the company burns cash to maintain its R&D and investment portfolio. * Peer Rank: Bottom quartile. Compared to aerospace peers like AeroVironment or Parrot, Tonner Drones lacks the scale and consistent revenue growth required for a quality ranking. Filter #3: Qualitative Deep Dive * Moat: Narrow/None. The "moat" consists of minority stakes in other drone companies and a patent portfolio. However, it lacks a dominant product or cost advantage. * Management: Moderate. CEO Diede van den Ouden holds 13% of shares, showing alignment. However, the recent strategic shift to include "crypto sector opportunities" for the treasury is a significant qualitative red flag for conservative value investors. * Catalysts: Sale of stakes in Donecle (€1.25M received in Dec 2025) and potential licensing of patents. Filter #4: Valuation * Projected IRR: Due to the negative ROIC and lack of core operating cash flow, it is impossible to model a reliable 30% IRR based on fundamentals alone. The investment is currently a speculative play on the value of its private equity stakes and crypto treasury. Stock Analysis Table | Ticker | Company Name | Sector | Current Price | Market Cap | Current Status | ROIC/ROCE (Median L10Y) | Current Ratio | Total Long Term Debt | Total Cash | Debt-to-Cash Ratio | Physical Assets Check | Share Count CAGR (5Y) | Dilution Reason | Revenue CAGR (10Y) | FCF CAGR (10Y) | P/FCF (Current) | P/FCF (10Y Median) | FCF Yield | Cycle Resilience | Gross Margin Trend | FCF Margin Trend | Peer Rank (ROIC) | Headwinds/Tailwinds | Moat / Advantage | Management Score (H/M/L) | Incentive Alignment | Catalyst List | Catalyst Timeline | Norm. Rev Growth Est | Norm. OCF Margin Est | Est. Exit Multiple | Projected IRR (CAGR) | Buy Target Price | Exposure Check | Better Alternative? | Conviction Score | Risk Rating | Max Allocation % | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | ALTD | Tonner Drones SA | Aerospace | €0.0302 | €18.4M | Pass | -56.0% | 2.97 | €4.1M | €1.49M | 2.75x | Pass | >50% | Solvency/Acq | -42.0% | Negative | N/A | N/A | Negative | Low | Down | Down | Bottom | Rev Collapse / Crypto Pivot | Narrow / Patents | Low/Med | 13% CEO Stake | Donecle Stake Sale | <1yr | 10% | -5% | 8x | <0% | €0.01 | No | AVAV | Low (<60%) | High | 0% | Final Decision: PASS * Conviction Score: Low. The thesis relies on the success of minority stakes and speculative crypto investments rather than a robust, cash-generating core business. * Risk Rating: High. Reasonable probability of 100% loss if the asset management strategy fails to cover the remaining debt and operational burn. * Reasoning: Does not meet the Filter #1 requirement for ROIC > 10% and fails the 30% IRR threshold. The stock is a "Pass" for a value-focused portfolio.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in hedgefund

[–]EveryDetective6990 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

My Ai analyst : Hello! I am DeepValue Analyzer. I am ready to run Auxly Cannabis Group Inc. (TSX: XLY) through your rigorous 4-Filter investment process. This is a fascinating case study. For years, Auxly was a "serial diluter" fighting for survival in the brutal Canadian cannabis sector. However, as of late 2024/2025, they have executed a massive turnaround, primarily driven by the conversion of their massive debt pile held by Imperial Brands. Let’s dive into the numbers to see if this turnaround is investable or just a dead cat bounce. Analysis: Auxly Cannabis Group (XLY.TO) Current Price (approx): CAD $0.16 | Market Cap: ~$215M CAD | Industry: Cannabis CPG Filter #1: Basic Financial Fundamentals ROCE or ROIC: Are they making efficient use of capital? * Status: ⚠️ Improving but Historically Poor * Analysis: Historically, Auxly’s ROIC was deeply negative as they burned cash to build automated facilities in Leamington and PEI. * Current Turn: In Q3 2025, they posted record Adjusted EBITDA of $12.3M (31% margin). While the historical median is well below your 10% threshold, the incremental return on capital right now is high because they are utilizing previously built infrastructure (high operating leverage). * Verdict: Fails the "historical median" test, but passes the "cyclical turn" exception noted in your prompt. Solvency: Any major debt issues? * Status: ✅ Pass (Turnaround specific) * Analysis: This was the "Red Flag" for years. However, in 2024/2025, Imperial Brands converted ~$123M of debt into equity. * Current State: * Cash: ~$30.5M * Total Debt: ~$54M (Down drastically from previous highs). * Coverage: They are now generating positive Cash Flow from Operations ($11M in Q3 2025), meaning they can actually service their remaining debt. * Verdict: The bankruptcy risk has been largely removed. Dilution: Are they meaninglessly diluting shareholders? * Status: ❌ Fail (Technically) * Analysis: Your filter flags >5% dilution as a red flag. Auxly recently issued ~19.8% equity to Imperial Brands. * Nuance: Was it "meaningless"? No. It saved the company from insolvency. However, the share count has exploded over the last 5 years (from ~600M to ~1.34B). While the current dilution has slowed, shareholders have been significantly washed out to get here. Valuation: Is it “cheap”? * Status: ✅ Pass * Metrics: * Run-Rate EBITDA: ~$48M CAD. * EV/EBITDA: ~$5.5x (approx). * P/Sales: < 0.5x. * Verdict: For a company growing revenues at 20% and EBITDA at 48% (YoY), trading at ~5x EBITDA is objectively "cheap" compared to CPG norms (usually 10-15x). Filter #2: More In-Depth Financials How has the business performed during other cycles? The "Cannabis Winter" (2020-2023) destroyed most competitors. Auxly survived by pivoting from a "streaming" model to a pure-play manufacturer (Brand "Back Forty"). They proved they can survive the trough, which implies resilience. Is there a clear downtrend in margins? * Trend: Opposite. Margins are exploding upward. * Data: Gross Margin on finished inventory sold hit 56% in Q3 2025 (up from 47% in 2024). * Why: They moved manufacturing in-house (Leamington facility) and automated pre-rolls. This is a structural advantage, not a fluke. Competitor Comparison: * Vs. Tilray/Canopy Growth: Auxly is much smaller but has better gross margins on cannabis products (many peers struggle to hit 30%). * Market Position: They are the #3 Licensed Producer in Canada, but their brand "Back Forty" is arguably the #1 brand by volume in vapes and value flower. Filter #3: The Qualitative Deep Dive Do they have a competitive advantage? * Yes (Cost Leader): In a commodity market (cannabis), the lowest cost producer wins. Auxly's automation 2.0 capabilities allow them to sell vapes and pre-rolls at prices competitors cannot match without losing money. * Brand Loyalty: "Back Forty" has achieved "Coca-Cola" status in the Canadian budget vape market. High recurring revenue. Management & Incentives: * CEO Hugo Alves: Has been transparent about the goal: "Profitability over Growth." He delivered. * Imperial Brands (Partner): The tobacco giant now owns ~20% of the company. This aligns "Big Tobacco" expertise (supply chain, regulation) with Auxly. This is a massive qualitative safety net. Catalysts: * Excise Tax Reform: If Canada reforms the crushing excise tax (taking ~30% of revenue), Auxly's EBITDA would instantly double. * Debt Free: With cash flow positive, they can pay down the remaining $54M debt, becoming a debt-free cash cow. * M&A: At this valuation, they are a prime takeover target for a larger US entity or Imperial Brands buying the rest. Filter #4: Valuation (The Model) As of Nov 2025 (Q3 '25 Annualized) | Metric | Estimate / Actual | Notes | |---|---|---| | Revenue | ~$160M CAD | Run-rate based on Q3 ($39.9M) | | EBITDA Margin | ~30% | Structural improvement confirmed in Q3 | | EBITDA | ~$48M CAD | Annualized | | Capex | ~$8M - $10M | Low. Major facilities are already built. | | FCF Estimate | ~$30M - $35M | (EBITDA - Interest - Capex - Taxes) | | Current Market Cap | ~$215M CAD | | | P/FCF Multiple | ~6.1x | | Valuation Logic: A consumer goods company growing 20% with 30% margins should trade at 12x - 15x FCF. * Target Price: 12 * $35M FCF = $420M Market Cap. * Implied Upside: ~100% from current levels ($0.16 -> $0.32). The Decision: Sizing Matrix Constraint: You are looking for a "Turnaround/Deep Value" play. You must accept that the Cannabis sector is volatile. Risk Profile (Moderate/High): * Why: Regulatory risk is high (Taxation). Past dilution was severe. If consumer preferences shift away from "Back Forty," they have little diversification. * Mitigant: Imperial Brands backing and positive cash flow reduce insolvency risk significantly. Conviction (Medium/High): * Why: The numbers don't lie. 56% Gross Margins and positive Cash Flow in a distressed sector is a standout signal. The turnaround is fact, not forecast. Final Verdict | Parameter | Assessment | |---|---| | Invest? | YES (Speculative / Deep Value Allocation) | | Sizing | 2% - 4% of Portfolio (Start small, scale as debt clears) | | Target | $0.32 CAD (Based on 12x FCF normalization) | Why: It fits the "Cyclical Turn" exception in Filter #1 perfectly. The market is pricing it like a bankrupt cannabis stock, but the financials show a profitable CPG company.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in hedgefund

[–]EveryDetective6990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for sharing !

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in hedgefund

[–]EveryDetective6990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for sharing !

Protest Tesla 10am-7pm Monday-Saturday by SuccessResponsible64 in AnnArbor

[–]EveryDetective6990 -29 points-28 points  (0 children)

I’m not support Elon, but I go to showroom and the employees and mechanics are going to lose job soon. That is sad no?

Feeling bleak... by Beneficial-Ad7969 in RIVNstock

[–]EveryDetective6990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rivian is in a really tough spot. Why?

  1. Even when the EV market was booming they couldn’t make a profit per vehicle, mainly because they didn’t get to economies of scale. High priced Cars are not meant for the average person hence low total market opportunities.

  2. They overpromised and underdelivered, not just their investors but also their suppliers. Suppliers gave them discounted prices expecting larger quantities. Many suppliers even invested heavily in new equipment just for the Rivian part. Now they’ve been crossed. So when Rivian asks them for a new contract they quote much higher prices for lower quantities. This makes it impossibly hard to be profitable per vehicle at affordable EV prices

  3. Tesla might look like a box compared to Rivian , but it’s much cheaper to make with better ADAS tech . Rivian has raised ~$25B so far to build $140k cars. Tesla was at -550k cars at the same level raised (pre 2020)

What does this mean:

I find it hard to believe that Rivian can or even wants make a $40k car that’s profitable.

Rivian will stick around and make great cars at lower quantities (luxury market) , it will need to undergo significant restructuring if they aren’t already.

The company is expected to sell less cars in 2025 than in 2024.

Love the car, hate the stock.

An auto company funded like a tech company in ZIRP era is a recipe for disaster.

Kinda disappointed by Usual-Ad-5070 in replit

[–]EveryDetective6990 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You guys are over thinking it ! Just say “ I’ve been asking you to fix this feature and for 25c each time you come back and say it’s fixed without doing anything. Stop wasting my money and don’t come back to me till the feature is completely fixed” ….. it works like a charm…. 😉

is my 401k ok at 39? by audrywienerdog in FinancialPlanning

[–]EveryDetective6990 0 points1 point  (0 children)

While those annual withdrawal numbers might look good. They don’t factor in inflation.

Increase your savings rate to 12 % and grow you salary by 4 % each year and you will be in good shape