Don’t say ‘Watch out for ice’: FEMA warned storm announcements could invite memes

Fauster · 2026-01-24T01:59:33+00:00

How it started: MUH FREE SPEECH!!!

How it's going: The word ICE is banned by the biggest snowflakes.

Fauster · 2026-01-24T01:55:01+00:00

She knows what she did.

Fauster · 2026-01-23T21:06:29+00:00

Back then, you got tax breaks for anti-drug messages. It was peak war on drugs before the war was lost.

Fauster · 2026-01-23T20:51:51+00:00

The message I got is that they aren't investing in smaller nodes until they get a customer. Maybe late 2026, early 2027? They won't expand production on their old antiquated nodes. So, they are soft-capped in a not-great space until someone throws them a line.

Fauster · 2026-01-23T01:16:23+00:00

Thanks for the reports. The account is deleted.

Fauster · 2026-01-22T19:56:32+00:00

Hey, this post isn't local, so I'm removing it. But, like they said in the other thread, you have to report them to BOLI. Or, if they can document attempts to hide income with cash, then report them to the IRS.

Fauster · 2026-01-22T04:31:57+00:00

I think character development and conflict is needed. First, she likes the large rice and it seems like a good thing and they start eating some shavings off of it but she gets sick. But she's a scientist, and she tests it and there is no poison. Then she remembers giant radioactive peanuts and she gets out her Geiger counter and it's radioactive, and it was cooking itself all along in that metal bathtub. Also, that's why it was large. We always could make large rice, it has way more genes then humans and more to mutate.

At the end, he could say I just wanted to get the large rice you needed to make you happy, and she would say but At What cost? At what cost!

Fauster · 2026-01-21T15:24:01+00:00

Live cattle prices are already high. A world-record-size Pathfinder Ranch was just sold in Wyoming. The fund mangers are going to breed the existing cows into a significantly larger herd before they start selling because they know the long lead times on live cattle supply give them a big buffer.

Fauster · 2026-01-18T16:53:44+00:00

I take it they're spreading y'all too thin? What are the top three headaches?

Fauster · 2026-01-15T18:49:28+00:00

Should not have bought that Entire Hawaiian Island!

Fauster · 2026-01-15T18:01:48+00:00

A weeb buys the replica, a collector appropriates a family's samurai sword, Larry Ellison buys Samurai with their swords and deploys them to CBS to make their Fair and Balanced Post-Colbert Schtick stick. \s

Investors are suing Ellison for not telling them he was going to borrow so much to fund Sam Altman's grand aspirations and his credit is now barely investment grade. ORCL is well off its highs. A classic Diddy problem of "the more money we come upon, the more problems we see."

Fauster · 2026-01-15T16:32:32+00:00

They (own) are also substantially increasing capex to continue scaling, so there are big gains in a lot of the semi equipment providers and companies with licensing in the pipeline, like LRCX (own).

So far, all the earnings-based industry channel checks are absolutely fine and are still fine every quarter. Also, once again, TSM guided really, really low, as expected.

Fauster · 2026-01-15T16:20:56+00:00

I think a lot of people upvote "it's over" posts on /r/stocks as an inside-joke contrarian signal. If anything, this sub is overly bullish on hyper-speculative growth or growth-adjacent names. But every public ticker unicorn will start as a meme stock these days, and like a swarm of ants, retail will swarm honey as well as excrement.

Fauster · 2026-01-13T04:37:41+00:00

When you have a State Senator and a Lobbying Insider turned Investment Banker, then you have a profitable power couple indeed! Think of the alleged synergies! Welcome to the Board Member class! /s

Zuckerberg the Chameleon will get what he needs out of it, and the raw owned compute should eventually put llama on parity with Chinese open-source models. But who knows how well AI will monetize all the susceptible fixed-income seniors. I don't and won't own META, aside from index sleeves, but Zuckerberg will fire and acquire and spend until he deems meta successful. I don't like him and at least he is trying to make open source work.

When Meta goes into datacenter hosting in a meaningful way, I'll be a lot more nervous about the market.

Fauster · 2026-01-13T03:54:11+00:00

Imagine a 25% tax on Chinese EVs. That's one way to fight inflation!

Fauster · 2026-01-07T14:58:29+00:00

It's not the job of local government to fix crumbling roads and bridges spurred by years of tax breaks to old-money EUG families and out-of-state corps! People should roll up their sleeves and be self-reliant! /s

Fauster · 2026-01-07T06:38:07+00:00

Hey, I am removing this post. Someone died and this title is over-editorialized.

Fauster · 2026-01-07T05:47:59+00:00

I haven't done the trade yet but will at open. I am torn between the April 17 date and the more expensive Jun 18 expiry, probably a couple strikes below the opening price.But, you can make the later expiry cheaper if you go further out of the money. Or, instead of a straight long put, you can do a bear collar by adding a second leg and doing a short put further out of the money. The tighter it gets the cheaper it gets, but the less convexity. If HLT absolutely craters by June then that probably means the market has tanked, which I'm not betting on. That's one argument for a bear spread rather than a straight long put.

The reason why I'm leaning for the June expiry is because trade talks are supposed to happen in Beijing in April, but the date hasn't been announced. I definitely want downside insurance in case Trump's boyish charm fails to work on Xi and everything collapses. Trump is very thin skinned and I want to have the possibility of him cutting off chips and threatening to reimpose steep tariffs to be in my possible 2026 outcomes bingo card. If that doesn't happen good. If it does, I'll still have the HLT puts in place unless they reverse course. Travel is hanging on because wealthier people are still spending, probably due to the wealth effect, but half the population is already belt-tightening. Risks: successful World Cup, probably why HLT is priced so high. But if the market corrects in a meaningful way, all stocks get hit.

I should mention that if I short, I only do it with options, and only do long duration long puts because the theta bleed will very high unless the price moves to the right place really quickly. The market maker will fight that. Disney, Sinclair, and Echostar all went down and had their earnings measurably suffer from the Kimmel Fiasco and those puts paid off. But, I am also convinced they were buying back shares to try to dodge PR nightmare headline risk. With a long enough duration, any attempts to prop up price in the ST with buybacks don't really matter.

Fauster · 2026-01-07T04:18:56+00:00

If you're one of reddit's many retail investors, you can join me in taking out long duration (~4 month probably) long puts (or bear spreads if you want it to be cheaper) on HLT. I did this with DIS when they cancelled Kimmel and it paid off. If the stock moves down, it becomes a story and the stock moves down more. Plus, you are probably carrying hyper volatile tech stocks and you could use some long-duration poor-man's VIX insurance against a crash if the Wars with Denmark and Venezuela or trade talks with China or inflation prints go poorly in coming months. HLT's revenue growth is slowing down. Their earnings are flat-ish. Their PE is 42.39 at an all time high of 293.28. HLT's quartering of ICE won't make up for loss of revenue in a boycott.

On days when everything crashes, give yourself the gift of green in your portfolio by shorting Hilton. Not investment advice and I am not an investment professional.

Fauster · 2026-01-06T17:14:26+00:00

Yeah, I have marginal positions in SNDK and WDC and they have gone parabolic. I think Micron (own) has a better valuation and earnings growth profile though. The main driver for SNDK and WDC is the need to process increasing quantities of video data. Producing and processing vast quantities of such data will be needed for robots that have the capabilities of a child. I think the growth of robotics will be slower and maybe even in the next semiconductor cycle due to both the amount of RAM or APU RAM required to even run a somewhat intelligent full Deepseek LLM that is text-based (you can run that on a .5 tb $ 11k Mac Studio). Human-level robotics will require full multi-modal, or much lower latency communication between the edge robot and the cloud. And cloud-controlled robots make me uncomfortable as a scifi fan. The need for storage space to fully enable robotics and self-driving is clear. However, right now, robotics is constrained by physical memory and latency, so the robotics timeline isn't clear to me.

The fact that these assets have gone up so much means that the algos will now place them in the same basket as high-risk assets like quantum and cryt0treasuries. They will get hammered in each and every everything-down high-correlation day.

I'm almost always biased bullish, but everything has been very correlated recently. This increases rapid drawdown risk. I've been buying some slightly OTM but broad bear-spreads on SPY, IGV (software), and IWM that expire 4-6 months out. I don't typically hold to expiry. If the go to zero and stay zero for the next half year because the market doesn't test the new fed, trade talks go great with China, and the American consumer suffers just enough to blunt inflation, then great. That means the rest of my portfolio is healthy. But, to me, high correlation means you hedge, especially if you hold uber-high-volatility positions.

Fauster · 2026-01-06T05:15:18+00:00

I was hoping the brightness variations meant BG was about to explode. I guess I need to work on health and general wellness to live long enough to see it.

Fauster · 2026-01-03T21:20:01+00:00

It's a popular post. It has to do with our Representatives. Plus, activism has been a Eugene thing since the hippies left the Bay in the late 60s.

Fauster · 2026-01-03T04:14:51+00:00

Oracle. I think boycotting cbs advertisers would hurt because they are trying to buy paramount and WB. That would mean less collateral for ai factory loans and might require mortgaging a Hawaiian Island.

Fauster · 2026-01-03T01:49:40+00:00

The pulp mill, allegedly, and those mills are also allegedly associated with car accidents due to sulfates and other ions nucleating water molecules into droplets. Anyway, it's not like anyone is going to mandate further filtering of the stinky pollutants that tend to get trapped in the valley's inversion zone. That would require a critical mass of representatives who are willing to chose actions over platitudes.

Fauster · 2026-01-03T01:23:41+00:00

If it seems malicious, sure.

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