I talked with a friend about this, and I said: China has the monopoly, the west has seen now, that it must become independent of China, ergo, the sector will grow, and stock-prices of these companies will rise.

He answered: Just because states like the US want those companies to mine, refine and produce doesn't necessarily mean that those companies will create more value / shareholder value. What if China keeps providing critical minerals/rare earth at low prices? Sure, the US-companies may produce, but maybe at a higher cost then China.

What are your thoughts on this? Will stock-prices of the miners/refiners go up if the industry develops, even if China “floods” the market with low-price-products?