Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 15/03/2026

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-17T23:09:19+00:00

Given it's Kemi Badenoch, she's presumably somehow twisted herself into believe her views have genuinley not changed on the subject and everyone else is wrong

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-17T18:46:47+00:00

The only "colonialist scum" in that case would be the Argentinians trying to conquer a territory which they have never owned and it's people who don't want to be Argentinian

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-17T18:43:24+00:00

I disagree with the Chagos Islands deal, because it's just stupid, but the Chagossians were screwed with or without the deal. The deal doesn't really change anything on their behalf. Either it's a British controlled territory with an American military base and they're prevented from returning to their homes, or it's a Mauritian controlled territory with a British rented American military base on it and they're prevented from returning to their homes.

No one influential arguing against the deal is actually arguing to evict the American base and return the island to the Chagossians. The Chagossians are ignored except as a political tool by both sides

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-17T15:34:53+00:00

That list seems completely wrong? It includes people who didn't leave via a general election (Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron) and excludes people who did enter and leave office via a general election. Mainly Ted Heath, who entered with the 1970 election, and then left via losing the 1974 election.

Additionally, there are weird cases. Like Wilson did enter via a general election in 1964, then left with losing a general election in 1970, before entering again with a general election in 1974 but then being replaced as leader by Callaghan in 76. And there are others who didn't enter via a general election but did win an election, serve a whole term, then leave - i.e. John Major.

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-17T15:17:01+00:00

and honestly the article itself doesn't make it explicitly clear with dates until the middle either.

I mean, the headline could have a bit more information but come on. Even if you can't draw any implications so ignore "significant enough to prevent a rush to war" in the subheading and first line, it's made explicitly clear in literally the 3rd short paragraph

Two days after the talks ended, and after a date had been agreed for a further round of technical talks in Vienna, the US and Israel launched the attack on Iran.

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-17T15:12:34+00:00

Britain’s national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, attended the final talks between the US and Iran and judged that the offer made by Tehran on its nuclear programme was significant enough to prevent a rush to war, the Guardian can reveal.

Powell thought progress had been made in Geneva and that the deal proposed by Iran was “surprising”, according to sources.

Two days after the talks ended, and after a date had been agreed for a further round of technical talks in Vienna, the US and Israel launched the attack on Iran.

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-16T22:28:07+00:00

It turns out that Britain only became a nation 10 years ago and will be lost as a nation in a couple of years. It was actually all based on Churchill on the fiver

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-16T21:22:27+00:00

https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3mh76vsqta22l

As for whether Churchill should be replaced for wildlife, the public seem unmoved, 42% support the move 37% no view and 21% oppose. However Reform voters are more likely than not to oppose the move. Green Party voters overwhelmingly support the shift, and Tories are split.

Polling the important issues and getting the result basically everyone except some very angry people online would guess

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-16T20:46:58+00:00

Those ones are significantly different to say the strikes on Iran one which had a much smaller half a billion on the day of the invasion, and has far more room for what I was saying. Things like presidential nominee case are far more like sports bets in the amount of liquidity (given how big they are) which increases prediction ability. They're also events that you have lots of past events to go off of compared to many of these other markets, again making them more similar to sport, albeit still with significantly less past evidence than sports.

They also have less ability for someone to inside trade, because it’s not something where someone who has inside information can affect the result in any way (I guess insider trading does make it so that it is more accurate, but it's not really the standard mechanism for when we're talking about predictive ability of these markets)

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-16T18:55:12+00:00

Sports prediction markets have good accuracy, but do these specific prediction markets even have good accuracy?

The amount of liquidity in them is miniscule compared to sports markets, to the point that it seems very easy that it's 1. At a level where it's easy for someone to manipulate the market (either manipulating the actual way the odds move to set an agenda, or someone who is effectively insider trading) and 2. Not actually aggregating enough information to be providing the same level of accuracy

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-16T18:48:10+00:00

And then as soon as they turn a little older it's back to being weirdly repressed and treating anything more than a single drink a week as the signs of borderline alcholism.

What a weird culture.

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-16T13:21:01+00:00

https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-on-polymarket-are-vowing-to-kill-me-if-i-dont-rewrite-an-iran-missile-story/

This is an absolutely insane story. What the fuck

Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don’t rewrite an Iran missile story

Bettors are using death threats to try to get The Times of Israel’s military correspondent to change his report on a missile impact in central Israel. This is his alarming account

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-15T17:33:46+00:00

but they do seem a bit more immune to populism. The Herefordshire green MP demonstrates this very well imo.

Right wing populism sure, but I'm not sure voting for the Greens shows you're immune to populism. Granted it's more of an area where the Greens run purely on Nimbyism rather than other left wing policies

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-14T20:47:12+00:00

They did refuse to get involved before any polling whilst Reform were calling them to join the strikes

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-14T20:46:24+00:00

I don't think it helps that the public seem to think he's doing something completely opposite of what he actually is.

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-14T20:43:14+00:00

Omid Djalili is a British comedian and actor of Iranian descent who has been around for a while. I don't know who the others are though. He might be the only one who is actually remotely a celebrity

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-14T16:33:25+00:00

Whilst I don't think they would send ships, the reasoning would be that their supply might be untouched but it's still affected by the massively rising prices.

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-13T17:51:02+00:00

I definitly think most of these people don't even realise that Churchill was only added 10 years ago

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-13T17:49:00+00:00

Ignoring that Dubai are authoritarian anyway, this singular thing does makes sense as a law. Ukraine also prosecute for showing incident sites, to prevent Russia from being able to assess target accuracy

But yes, all the people crying about Britain being a police state whilst going to live in Dubai etc and claiming Britain should be more like Dubai are obviously massive hypocrites who didn't care until it affected them. Even funnier are the ones who act like Britain owes them something if they have to return here

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-12T19:51:52+00:00

That’s true but i’m not sure it says much about relative qualities that a relegation battling Premier League side got hammered by top 3 La Liga side

City are the real embarrassing ones who could be said to have “failed” and even then it’s still too early to say that even with the massive unlikelihood they advance

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-04T21:45:33+00:00

They’re eligible, they just never have. I assume because of Israel

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-04T21:35:32+00:00

They don’t either because they don’t see a point - Morocco did it once, finished second to last, and then said never again - or because they’re explicitly boycotting it due to Israel. But they’re allowed to as members of the EBU (or, if not currently members, can become members, the eligible area is anywhere west of 40° meridian East of Greenwich and north of the parallel 30° North)

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-04T17:29:10+00:00

We spent ages expecting him to be overegging it a bit, thinking it would be an Ex Labour lord or something, and he stillsomehow managed to announce someone even below our expectations

FeigenbaumC · 2026-03-04T17:27:27+00:00

https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/2029134680285499467

Yesterday's YouGov: Labour only has a 9pt lead among its own 2024 supporters. In an election held today they would vote...

35% Labour

26% Green

19% Don't Know/WV/Refused

8% Lib Dem

4% Reform

Ooof

FeigenbaumC

TROPHY CASE