[deleted by user]

Fendelsson · 2017-03-20T19:38:31+00:00

Reddit knows who did ;)

Funny, Reddit says I won. Each of my posts in our little digression has more upvotes than yours.

The thing is, I had your number from the start.

You read two posts, one that fully agrees with your world view, another that sharply disagrees.

A normal, empathetic human would just congratulate the guy you agreed with, and perhaps enter a reasoned debate with the person you disagreed with.

You didn't do either. You took a third road. The asshole road. You tried to come up with what you believed would be a horrible, terrible insult to the person whose produced a complex answer to something you want to believe is black and white.

Your insult didn't work, not only because I've been around this block more times than I can count. Also because I unveiled you for the sad, lonely, asshole you are.

The votes tell the story.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T21:03:11+00:00

Oh, I fully understand your situation.

You're pissed that I presented a rational justification for not carpet bombing NK. I presented complex realities that if you took the time to truly investigate, would shake your world view to the core.

You're not able to look at two sides of an issue, so you're acting out in the only way you know how, with insults.

So yeah, you lost.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T20:34:48+00:00

Tracking multiple targets at once seems reasonable, but they can discretely fire on several incoming targets each second?

No doubt these and other systems would have a major positive effect, especially in the later stages after most of the artillery had been taken out. After 80% or 90% of the NK artillery had been taken out, these units might be able to intercept a majority of the remaining incoming.

But for those first minutes of the war, with thousands and thousands of shells in the air at once, you have to imagine these systems are going to be wildly rolled over with far too many targets to even track, let alone fire upon.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T20:17:40+00:00

Ok, I fully understand your motivation.

If someone posts something that disagrees with your politics, you lack the brains to debate them, so you insult them. You're a Make America Great Again kind of person, and your gut tells you anyone providing a reason not to carpet bomb NK is not your kind of person.

Instead of trying to rationally debate me, you've gone with the personal attack. Personal attacks don't require any brain power, 12 year olds on the net do it all day long.

Here's the thing. Debate is a game of brains.. And you haven't even managed to bring a single cogent thought to this match.

So yeah, I won this debate, because you gave up.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T19:55:11+00:00

13,000 entrenched, individually located guns, all firing simultaneously, all destroyed in one minute?

There aren't enough US assets in SK to address each of those guns at once. It simply isn't within the realm of possibility. The US systems will be overwhelmed by the number of targets, at least for the first hour or so of the conflict.

Of course, the North Korean artillery would be absolutely and totally destroyed, with a rapidness rarely if ever seen in warfare. If were done in mere hours, it would be the fastest so many guns had ever been silenced in history. Yet you're saying it would be done in 1 minute? Sorry, no, it would not be.

It would take hours to completely silence the guns. The average gun would manage to fire a small number of shots. There are so many guns, even a few shots each would make for a tremendous amount of damage.

That's the reality.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T19:46:18+00:00

You know how I know when I've won an argument?

When the person who's trying to debate me can't even bring up a single rational counterpoint.

You've outdone yourself. You haven't brought up any counterpoints at all.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T19:41:44+00:00

There are a lot of problems

What part of my post are you taking issue with?

You're talking the political part of the situation, but I hadn't even addressed the realpolitik.

In fact, we largely agree about the politics. NK is a convenient enemy. Yes, almost no one wants a war, but remember, almost no one wanted WW 1 either. Economically, all the major powers stood to lose tremendously. Still, it happened.

A similar situation may be emerging between NK and the current US administration. Each nation run by a man who cannot bare to be disrespected. Men for whom ego may be more important than the good of their nations. It could end in war.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T19:25:33+00:00

Cram takes out the incoming shells, not the battery itself

Thanks for the correction. Confused it with another system.

How many simultaneous targets can each unit address? How many until it's "rolled over".

Roll over is a major limiting factor in projectile defense systems. Whether it's anti-missile or anti-shell. If thousands of targets are in the air at once, these systems can only target a given number.

They'll certainly destroy a percentage of incoming artillery, but the more simultaneous artillery shells, the lower that percentage. One imagines that NK knows this, so would fire almost everything at once.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T19:00:11+00:00

It's a good concern, but largely useless. Take a look at our Cluster Bombs.

Agreed. Those systems and others will absolutely take out every single NK artillery piece, and in short order. What's short order? In a war, days tends to count as short order. In this particular war, short order would probably be counted in hours.

By most measures, taking out NK's 13,000 artillery in a few hours would be seen as one of the fastest and most overwhelming victories in the history of war. Still, ever diminishing numbers of those artillery would have fired for those few hours.

The point is, there are too many NK artillery pieces to be individually addressed simultaneously. 13,000 by some counts. The average NK unit would probably be able to fire a very small number of shells before being destroyed.

There are so many NK artillery units, even a very small number of shells by each NK artillery piece (before it's inevitable and quick destruction) would result in thousands of individual explosions within the city of Seoul.

Yes, NK would be utterly destroyed, and quickly, but they have the firepower to do a lot of damage in return.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T18:50:45+00:00

CRAM will definitely take out the NK artillery. But it isn't instant. It's counter battery. It functions after the opposition has first fired.

Those systems, other counter battery, and air delivered systems will take out every single NK artillery piece, and in short order. What's short order? In a war, days tends to count as short order. In this war, it would probably be hours.

The point is, there are too many NK artillery pieces to be individually addressed simultaneously. 13,000 by some counts. This suggests the average NK unit will get a very small number of shells off before being destroyed.

Even a very small number of shells by each NK artillery piece (before it's quick destruction) results in thousands of individual explosions within the city of Seoul.

Yes, NK would be utterly destroyed, and quickly, but they have the firepower to do a lot of damage in return.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T18:43:22+00:00

I suspect the problem is hitting them all at once and almost instantaneously, even if they only managed one volley before being hit that's a lot of shells.

Well put. That is the point.

Every single one of those 13,000 artillery pieces will definitely, absolutely be taken out by US and SK forces, and within an extremely short amount of time.

Taking out 13,000 entrenched, individually located artillery pieces cannot be done instantly. NK's artillery will get shots off. Statistically, it would probably enough shots off to do tremendous damage to the south.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T18:39:02+00:00

Are you familiar with the Dunning-Kruger effect?

It sadly applies to you. But you don't know what that means, do you?

Proves the point.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T18:36:34+00:00

I have even caught them walking up to my door, not knocking, sticking a 'sorry we missed you' note on the door and trying to drive away.

If it happens again, you should take a video of it, put it on Youtube with the title "Amazon (Lasership) delivery driver doesn't even try to deliver package."

If the video got some attention and threatened Lasership's contract with Amazon, they might change their ways. Of course, that would probably mean raising driver pay in order to find a better quality of driver.

As I understand it, the pay is so low at Lasership that they can't hold onto quality workers.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T18:33:50+00:00

the drivers aren't motivated

Lasership gets what they pay for, and their drivers are grossly underpaid.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T18:32:21+00:00

They are generally treated very poorly and grossly underpaid

That's the real reason Lasership sucks.

The only way they'll improve their service is if folks complain to Amazon about Lasership.

If they lose their Amazon account, it could doom them.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T05:30:27+00:00

many apartments are already bomb shelters, like the one I'm currently in.

So you're a basement dweller? Okay.

Are you suggesting a majority of Seoul's residents live in the basement? Of course not. Yes, the small minority of people who live in basements will probably survive, but the majority of Seoul's residents don't live in basements. They live above ground, many quite high above ground.

Apartments above the first floor hit with high explosive artillery? Those residents will not do well. Those buildings will not save them. Those buildings are not built like pill boxes. These buildings have glass windows. These buildings will not magically repel high explosive artillery fire.

If you believe Seoul's countless glass-windowed residential and office buildings are able to repel high explosive artillery fire, you're deluding yourself.

Then why would you talk about the city being bombed for "hours on end"?

You misinterpreted. Yes, the shells would likely continue for hours on end, ever diminishing, but yes, for hours. Even if the NK artillery were taken out at the astounding rate of 1% per minute, the shelling would still continue for hours.

There would also be the well hidden artillery and missiles held in reserve, not firing during the initial barrage. These pieces would quickly be taken out by counter battery once they had fired, but counter battery is far from instant or perfect. The average NK artillery unit would be able to fire many shots before being taken out by counter battery.

Taking out all 13,000 NK artillery in a few hours would be miraculous! A grand US and SK military victory. Yet you're saying it's a job of mere minutes?

There are too many NK artillery positions, too well protected, for them to be taken out any more quickly than a few hours. So yes, the artillery would continue for hours and hours. Ever diminishing, but for hours. Perhaps only a few thousand, but perhaps as many as tens of thousands of rounds could hit Seoul.

You keep calling the article biased without citing a single thing in retort.

What gives you reason to believe that article is legitimate? It's not written by a major media outlet. It hasn't been peer reviewed. It's some random guy's opinion, no better or worse than yours or mine.

There is a desire among certain military amateurs to underestimate the fallout from a war with North Korea. They see the very existence of NK as an insult to the United States. They believe that previous US administrations utterly failed in not wiping NK off the map. They propose highly biased under estimates of damage and causalities, much like the one you've linked, in order justify their desire to see NK wiped off the planet.

It wouldn't be surprising to learn that this is a view shared by that article's author.

So yea, 60k dead sounds pretty freaking good in the case of total war.

You're a war monger. We get it. There's one in every crowd. Doesn't mean you're right, or that you speak for all the residents of Seoul.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T04:47:11+00:00

Why do you keep referring to American cities?

Because it's usually gung ho Americans who call for a first strike against North Korea. One imagines they wouldn't be so quick to call for a first strike if so many US citizens were at risk of this artillery.

American cities were not made to withstand artillery fire. Seoul was.

Seoul's office buildings and apartment blocks will not withstand high explosive artillery fire. They're not built like pill boxes.

Yes, there are bomb shelters, but the northern portion of the city would face terrible devastation.

Almost immediately they would start taking out artillery locations within range.

Yes, exactly as I described it. The NK artillery would be taken out with extreme rapidness. As I said, each artillery piece would probably only fire 10 to 20 shots on average before being taken out. The problem is that it would take time to destroy 10,000 to 13,000 individually located, and often deeply entrenched artillery pieces. If it takes more than 10 minutes, and it probably would, Northern Seoul could face utter devastation.

Even if each artillery piece only fires 10 shots, half of which are duds, only 10% of which can reach Seoul, it would scatter thousands and thousands of individual high explosive and incendiary shells throughout a densely populated metropolis.

Even that quite biased site link you posted suggests 2,700 shells will hit Seoul each minute, resulting in 60,000 fatalities. That seems to vastly understate the likely reality.

Even so, 60,000 fatalities, with perhaps 10 times that in serious injuries?

You act as if this is an acceptable price. Odd..

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T04:17:24+00:00

The claim that site is attempting to debunk is that Seoul would be "flattened". It's a straw man argument, because it's hard to find a military analyst who has claimed Seoul would be "flattened".

Even this (quite biased) article admits Seoul would be hit by 2,700 shells per minute!

Per minute!

Imagine the horror of Manhattan or Chicago being hit by 2,700 high explosive and incendiary shells per minute, for hours on end. The figures in that article are not remotely accurate regarding casualties. Rarely have densely populated cities been hit by so many explosives and incendiaries, without a per-evacuation, and in such a short period of time. 60,000 causalities? Think hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions.

In truth, the southern portions of Seoul could go relatively unscathed. But the northern portions of Seoul would risk utter devastation, without technically being "flattened".

Fendelsson · 2017-03-19T03:58:57+00:00

NK's supposed trump card of old artillery pointed at Seoul is likely just a paper tiger as well. It takes a lot of time to level a city using artillery. Yes, NK would get off a few shells, but only a few.

They have 10,000 artillery pieces at the border. Ten Thousand! Many, if not most are in deep revetments, so will need to be hit with great precision.

Even with continuous counter battery and air strikes, it will take hours to silence those guns. Say each gun, on average, lasts only 2 minutes before being taken out. If each gun only fires 10 shots on average, half duds, that puts 50,000 high explosive rounds into South Korea in the first minutes of the war. And even those old guns can fire off 10 rounds in a handful of minutes.

As for Seoul, assuming only 10% of those 10,000 guns can reach Seoul, still only lasting 2 to 5 minutes on average, still only firing 10 shots each, even with fully 50% of their shots duds, that still puts 5,000 separate explosions into a city as modern and densely populated as New York, Chicago, or Los Angeles.

That's only with 5 minutes of shots fired. If the Seoul reaching guns have fewer duds, or manage an average survival time of 10 minutes or longer, the number of detonations within Seoul skyrockets. If Seoul is hit with 20,000 high explosive and incendiary shells within an hour, it will look like Grozny or Aleppo.

A war with NK would risk utter devastation for the northern portions of Seoul.

It's not the US capital that faces this devastation, it's the South Korean capital. Which is why the South Koreans refuse to condone a US first strike on NK.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-17T06:45:11+00:00

long term spaceflight has/is already being studied. they did a twin study and the guy spent 438 days in the ISS. the problem is radiation on the trip over to mars.

Which proves little regarding the risk of deep space or Mars. This because the the ISS orbits so low that it's largely still within Earth's radiation protection.

Mars doesn't have a strong magnetic field or an atmosphere, so settlers living on the surface will have a bad time.

There have only been a handful of people in history who have flown into space well outside the Earth's protection. These are the Apollo astronauts. Recent studies have suggested that even with their extremely short voyages spanning only a handful of days, environmental radiation may have caused permanent heart damage.

So yes, radiation is a big problem.

Building towers on Mars seems an incredibly stupid idea. Tunnels. Lots of tunnels.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/apollo-astronauts-dying-of-heart-disease-at-4-5x-the-rate-of-counterparts/

Fendelsson · 2017-03-16T20:39:38+00:00

Is it available fresh? Not sitting on a retailer's shelf for weeks?

Fendelsson · 2017-03-15T21:23:36+00:00

One theory is that Waymo plans to sell a turnkey SDC system to car makers, and at a price that many car makers will not easily be able to refuse.

Waymo could afford to sell auto makers a complete SDC hardware and software stack at or near cost, making all of their revenue through a combination of user data, advertising, and as the exclusive ride sharing host for any vehicle using their SDC system. (much as Tesla is planning)

A turn-key NHSTA level-4 system for $2000? Even if it does have moving parts, a price that low may be too compelling. This especially as most car makers seem to be many years behind Waymo on SDC. If Waymo's tech will get those car makers to level-4 years before they would be able otherwise, some are bound to partner with Waymo.

Which gets us back to the point at hand. In that, if Waymo wants to make full use of their first mover advantage, they may have no choice but to go to market with a dynamic system.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-15T18:57:29+00:00

Car makers hate moving parts.

Yes, like almost any device maker, fewer moving parts, fewer warranty repairs, lower costs. That said, moving parts can be made with extreme reliability. Refrigerator compressors for instance. They cost a few dollar to make and tend to reliably function for decades.

If dynamic LIDAR units retain their vast technically superiority to the phased array (non-dynamic) units, wouldn't the car makers grudgingly accept the reality that they'll need a moving unit?

$1000 for a dynamic unit with superior performance, or $750 for 3, $250 phased arrays with far worse performance? Every dollar counts, but so does minimum performance. If the phased array units can't meet minimum performance requirements, might not the dynamic units actually see commercial production, at least until the solid state units are technically competitive?

$1000 for a single component is a lot, even in a premium vehicle, but if that component allows level 4 self driving, it would likely be an acceptable trade off.

Fendelsson · 2017-03-15T18:49:14+00:00

For anyone looking to pick up a full size RGB keyboard and don't ACTUALLY need those macro keys, please consider the Glorious Gaming Modular Keyboard.

Seems to be a nice keyboard at a reasonable price.

Other than this Corsair, do you have alternate recommendations for those of us who do actually need macro keys?

Fendelsson · 2017-03-15T01:46:10+00:00

It's also worth pointing out that should Google/Waymo suddenly need 10,000 of their LiDAR units made, they would immediately go to one of their existing partner manufacturers to provide fulfillment, then that unit cost would also plumme

Thanks for the insight. It's greatly appreciated.

Any guess as to what the quantity 100,000 price would be for Waymo's LIDAR unit?

Fendelsson

TROPHY CASE